=== Jason Vargas Kicks Booty. Not Wednesday. In General. ===
Finally. At long last. After sixty sap-suckin' starts. Sixty of 'em!
... I got so tired of watching Vargas pitch like Adam Sandler in one of Sandler's infantile self-indulgent "watch the schmuck win the Masters" movies. I finally decided that it was going to be "understand Jason Vargas or commit hari-kari by Happy Madison immersion."
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I almost did not turn this one on, seriously. This close.
JERED WEAVER? The four best pitchers in the league are two M's and two Angels, right? Like the 1960's Penguin said to Rocky, "look what a broken-down old pug like me does to ya. What's the champ gonna do?" I dunno. Hurt me bad. "No, kid. Hurt ya poimanent. POIMANENT!"
I stared and stared and stared as Jason Vargas destroyed the Angels -- as he always does -- and got tired of believing something that wasn't true. That Vargas isn't good.
.........
60 starts, Vargas has gone out and pitched well, and 60 starts I've expected him to get blasted the next time out.
So finally solving him was a little bit of a relief. ... another day for the POTD, mwahaha.
But it turns out that Jason Vargas is every blinkin' inch of Mark Buehrle, may be more than that, and in Safeco he's just a gnarly-tough kid to score off. Next time out, I'll be able to enjoy the game run-up. Vargas Is Good.
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Ah, okay. Plot spoiler dept.
If anybody stuck with us long enough to read to this point, we'll give you two pieces of the Vargas shtick, if you care for crossword puzzles with your coffee.
First, examine the side-to-side horizontal movement on this chart, and the degree of velocity separation between the clumps.
Then, examine the same factors on this Weaver chart and on this Takahashi chart. Compare the velocity delta needed to create separation in horizontal movement. Weaver's and Takahashi's are typical. Vargas' is decidedly not typical, and is the key to his game.
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If you grokked that, grok this too:
Then if you grok the command, and finally the Vaunted Vargas Changeup, you're set to go click through some GameDay at-bats...
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Vargas had a bad night with his command, was behind all night, and the Angels still found their way clear to Strike 3 on nine different occasions. This speaks to the rock-solid effectiveness of all Vargas of his pitches.
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Still hungry for crossword puzzles? Here are Vargas' FIP's the last three years:
Find out why with the ammo racked in this chart. It contains absolutely everything you need to get all three Vargases.
Dr. D can't believe his eyes. Jason Vargas is a plus starter.
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=== Jack Zduriencik ===
Acquired Vargas when nobody else in the world wanted Vargas. Like Joe Namath said, it's just one more triumph for clean living.
Makeup and intelligence can take a pitcher a blinkin' long way, if he stays healthy. Right now Jason Vargas is pulling a Jamie Moyer on the baseball world.
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=== Doug Fister ===
Didn't pitch Wednesday, but he's improving even faster than Vargas. Break up the Seattle Mariners.
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=== Jamey Wright ===
Was lousy Wednesday, lousy the way Sandy has expected him to be: wild and with no command.
Here's his game log. Review the ball-strike balance. It will tell you why he was bad.
.........
Has Wright reverted? Well, he just had a bad game. The three before were great. He's had 20 appearances, of which 4 or 5 were bad -- scattered randomly throughout his season.
Going forward? If Wright comes out and hits his spots the first three pitches, kick back with a sody pop and enjoy the immolation. Once in four games, if he throws a couple that miss by a mile, buckle in.
I'll take it.
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=== Brandon League ===
Came into a 3-run easy save and smirked, "Hello World. Forget you and your peanut-gallery suggestions on how I might avoid 4-game losing streaks."
Threw 11 pitches. Guess how many were Sasaki Syndrome pitches? You got it. All 11.
For example:
The game "felt" fine, since a couple balls went at people, including a DP. The first nine saves "felt" fine, too, right before the four straight losses.
The man isn't saving my games, I'll guarantee you that. Do it your way, fine, but yer not doing in my ninth innings, man.
Shawn Kelley is supposed to be nearly ready. He, Wright, and Pauley could Git R Done.
...........
Don't drown yourself in your coffee pot, Esteemed Reader. If League keeps the fastballs down, he'll get through the majority of the games. Pitching one inning with no baserunners on isn't that hard to do, and League throws hard. The odds are with the house if you're a baseball hitter.
Can you believe it, though? That League won't fix this?
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BABVA,
Dr D
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Hey guys, long-time reader, finally decided to post....Love, love, LOVE all the info I get on here btw!
Noticed Ms. Drayer say much of what you've been saying about League, and his inability to remain unpredictable in his pitch selection. It seems that the only person that remains unconvinced League is predictable is, well, League. Everyone else and their brothers all know what pitch is coming.
Is there some reason that Vargas' "curveball" doesn't curve very much...well, not at all?
Looks like it is a screwgie, if I'm reading the chart correctly.
And his "cutter" does'nt cut very much...but looks like his control pitch. Would be interesting to see the strike location of this pitch. Essentially it is a slow straight ball. I'll bet it eats the black up though. Batters should tee off on it, but I wonder if it fools them because it doesn't dive out of the zone or in on their hands.
There's a bit of a misconception about the cutter...it doesn't move in to right handers (from lefty arm) at all, generally...what it does...is FAIL to have armside run. Vargas' straight fastball has armside run just like his change-up...he picked up the cutter to have a pitch that didn't do tht that still have some velocity to keep lefties honest and to give him weapons to work both sides of the plate.
For about 6 months on how, maybe, soft tossers are the new undervalued commodity that Jack Zduriencik has figured out. Guys that never threw hard or lost it early (ala Blake Beavan) had to figure out other ways to get guys out; by developing pinpoint command, extra pitches, good deception, a brilliant pick-off move.
You read all the time about guys that get to the majors with a mid 90's fastball and a couple of lousy secondary offerings that they never worked on because they never had to. They don't learn to pitch until their 3rd or 4th season because they used to be able to blow it by everybody, but now they regularly face Miguel Cabrera, Justin Smoak, and Josh Hamiltons.
Guys like Jason Vargas, Doug Fister, and Mark Buerhle never could just throw it buy guys, so they figured out how to pitch at 17 instead of 23 or 25 or 30, so by the time they are 23 or 25 or 30, they've just about mastered how to throw a baseball into a dixie cup from 40 paces, with a curveball.
So now we have these guys littered throughout our system: Beavan, Roe, Seddon, French, I don't think Erasmo Ramirez, Andrew Carraway or Brian Moran throw very fast.
Also notice that Beavan is 6'7", Roe is 6'5", French is 6'4", so he likes them tall too, the "extra 6" syndrome" of making an 88 fastball look a bit more like 92.
...whether a pitcher is John Halama or Jamie Moyer. Halama had the height, he threw a no-hitter AND a perfect game in the minors, IIRC...
And he just didn't have QUITE good enough control to offset his lack of velocity, or he didn't care enough about baseball to be great. Halama was on record as not liking baseball, but it was gonna make him a millionaire so he figured he might as well throw a baseball around.
But how do you call a Jamie Moyer or a Mark Buehrle or a Brad Radke?
Erasmo Ramirez is trying to be one. But we've already gone through this phase as an organization where we were looking for the next Moyer, had entire drafts we'd call the "soft-tossing lefty" drafts that panned out with jack and nothin'.
I kinda hope Zduriencik is NOT hunting for soft-tossers. He obviously believes in the powers of command and control, which is fine, but finding a pitcher who can consistently hit his spots and baffle hitters with an 89 mph fastball isn't like plucking low-hanging fruit.
We have some, and I like it. But I wouldn't try to put together a pipeline for it.
~G
...remember...this is the same guy who also drafted Paxton, pushed Pineda to the top, signed Fields despite his own reservations, etc. I think he's gathering the soft-tossers he likes for them outstanding command primarily as a means for plugging holes when necessary and primarily in the veryb late rounds of drafts and as extra throw-in players in trades. And it's working.
High draft picks trying to snag the next Mark Buehrle; Vargas was a 3rd piece in a trade, Beavan was a 2nd piece, Roe was traded for with a player days from being released, Moran and Carraway were drafted in late rounds. What I think Jack is doing is giving these guys a chance, promoting them when they've earned it instead of when a guy ahead of them earns it and there's a rotation spot that needs filling. Most of the time, these guys drift around in the minors, getting called up for a couple of weeks maybe to fill in for an injury and go away again. The Mariners have now given Vargas, Fister, French, Laffey, and Wright long chances, chances that they've earned by their play, but still more than a lot of clubs would have given them.
And Jack has still shown a proclivity to looking for more pure talent with Walker, Paxton, and the bunch of big hard throwing relievers they've drafted. Although, one has to wonder whether there will be room for them when they are ready with the rotation in place right now and set for at least a couple more seasons.
Is that he doesn't seem to have hard-and-fast rules for his draft and minor-league acquisitions. He drafts and trades for short pitchers (Shipers, several bullpen arms in the low minors, Robles, Saito, etc), or tall ones (Beavan and the rest of the giant crew). He gets hard throwing fireballers and control artists. His bats come from high-school or college, wherever he can get the most value, and he's not above taking a bat first and trying to figure out the glove - but he also traded for Gutierrez and others specifically for the glove.
Jack wants a quality player, and he doesn't care what kind of mold that player comes in.
My least favorite thing about Jack so far is his complete inability to hit on ANY down-side veterans to help us out, with the exception of one year of Branyan. His major-league veterans have been bombs.
That means we need to build a young team, apparently, and I'm okay with that...but it's still frustrating.
And mal, if we get Walker and Paxton and others knocking on the door then we either trade one of the guys we already have in the starting rotation, or we trade one of the kids. We've already shown we can always use more bats.
as a soft tosser, but now that I think about it, I'm pretty sure he's 91-94 most of the time.
Welcome to you sir - hope you can chip in often!
would say that we're all on the scent ... :- )
IF you had a way to separate the wheat from the chaff ... and SSI fancies that it (perhaps the M's) has developed a way to do so...
Or supposing you simply had a Gillick / Zduriencik special knack for it...
If there were some way to reliably bias your player pool towards Moyers rather than Halamas, what a Moneyball coup that would be. True dat.
Zduriencik seems to simply go off makeup, intelligence, and mechanics, things which are no secret, but which admittedly are subjective (and therefore leaving room for GM talent).
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Supposing that Zduriencik were a Moneyball Finesse Pitcher Bounty Hunter, he would have pulled off two gigantic heists already.
Like Branch Rickey getting a leg up by being first, Zduriencik has in effect accomplished it, one way or the other. He's got two Moneyball finesse guys out of five SP's.
:golfclap:
Looking forward to more, Malcontent.
That he'd be at home in many contexts, and able to take his winning chances wherever they arose.
Funny that you would mention Gillick. He and his crew had the same knack for spotting that undervalued veteran that Zduriencik and his crew seem to have for the undervalued prospect.
Churchill is projecting the M's to take Lindor with the second pick and I am...unconcerned. If Jack's crew wants him, I'm down with it.
Somebody's pulling Churchill's leg. If we did, I'm with you. Jack has a great eye for untutored talent, and I'd see what comes of it.
But we're not taking Lindor. ;)
~G
A rumor like that has got to be the M's leaking info that they don't think Rendon is even the best bat in the draft. Just to help nudge Pittsburgh towards a pitcher. Z went and saw Lindor... I bet they make sure all their top scouts take a look, so it seems like they're seriously considering it.
'Cus you're right, a bat as far off as Lindor makes no sense for the M's when there are picks that are very close to being MLB-ready.
I don't think anyone leaked anything to Churchill. It's pure speculation and he's clear about that. He's just basing it on how many times the M's have been to see the players, what he has heard scouts inside and outside the organization say about them and his supposition that Rendon's shoulder is worse than thought. A shoulder that has kept him from throwing and hitting for power for this long has to be a concern. Maybe the medicals come in clean and he shoots back to #1. It's all a guessing game.
But Churchill deserves some props, and can't be easily dismissed though he's not always right.
I will say this: the "2014 Imperative" (based on Felix' contract expiration and Ichiro turning 40) that informed my earlier analysis of the draft (as in, Ms should not be as interested in long-range high school projects) is somewhat considerably altered by:
1. Vargas/Fister [what can you say? they rock]
2. Pineda being even better than we thought
3. Paxton [last night: 5.1 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 7 K]
4. Wilhelmsen getting stretched out to start [I'm very bullish in him as a starter]
Fact is, they don't need another frontline starter by 2014. They have a full set and more on the way.
5. Smoak becoming an instant XBH + OBP machine
6. Ackley looking like he'll be the same
7. Talent developing behind them that can be flipped for more offense (Triunfel, Seager, etc.)
Whatever has changed, however, I don't pass on Rendon unless there is a very good medical reason.
If there is a good medical reason, or if the Pirates take him, then there are good reasons to consider opting for a teenage position player over a college arm.
Dylan Bundy appears to have loads of potential, but spending zillions on a teenage arm at #2 when we have Walker and Campos already in the fold doesn't add up.
So, yes, I see a Lindor or Starling scenario much more than I did a few months ago. The timetable has changed.
I did a little analysis of Lindor, Starling and Littlewood's numbers from the Team USA teen team here: http://seattlesportsinsider.com/news/2-pick-314-featuring-2010-usa-teen-...
Lindor, for the less-initiated, is a switch-hitter, and considered more of a plus glove at SS than Nick Franklin. Some are skeptical that he will hit for power as he moves up the ladder, but others think he projects to get stronger.
Let me mindlessly dismiss him with, this is exactly the #2 pick of a scout trying to be clever. We mean it in a good way.
If he were ARod, or even B.J. Upton, he'd have been identified as such a looooooong time ago, woulda been the dominant #1 long since past.
Little bitty teenage shortstop, supposed to have projectable power, ooooh don't that glove look sweet, look how perfect my clipboard looks, nobody else understands him but us .... so let's pass on Edgar Martinez / David Wright who has six months to the cleanup spot in Safeco.
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Admittedly not knowing much about it, just going by templates and the various scraps of evidence around the crime scene, you'd have to step very lively to get me to take Lindor at the #7 overall.
At number two? With Rendon, Cole, and Bauer in this *daft*?
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Geoff Baker has a lot of wit and wisdom he doesn't get credited for.
He notes that when you get a consensus 1-2, they get "stale" and folks start finding reasons to push other people. Keeps the discussion fresh.
M's don't need a "fresh" pick - just the right one.
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Don't want Lindor at #2, but then again I really don't want Cole at #2. You don't want to be projecting too much with a pick that high unless you've got a wonderkind. Rendon or Bauer.
Projecting being a synonym for guessing. Why guess when you have players you know?
Guess if you have to. But the #2 pick this year is not one you have to guess with.
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For those who want to watch a Francisco Lindor / Chone Figgins video, here you go. Six swings ought to resolve any Rendon/Lindor debate for yer.
That's not good enough. Just admit it. You were Wrong Wrong Wrong on Vargus. No bug. No windshield. I even saw some fishy BS that summed it up yesterday.
