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Chinks in Prince Albert's Plate Mail

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Pujols is a mortal lock for the HOF.  That's point A.  In 2006-09, he showed us all what Lou Gehrig must have looked like.  2006-09 was one of baseball's all-time great offensive detonations.

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But Dr. D had Pujols on his roster during the 2011 season.  On a day-to-day basis, Dr. D watched carefully as the post-30 Pujols showed him something rather less than Lou Gehrig.

Here are Albert's SLG numbers as he has aged from 32 to 34 ... er, 29 to 31:

29 .658 SLG
30 .596 SLG
31 .548 SLG

And his OPS+, once a reliable 180-190, is now 150.

When we last saw Albert, in August and September, he was slugging .560.  That's over his last 53 games, the last 1/3 of a season.  The numbers 560, and 660, are two different numbers.

If Albert Pujols were to SLG 660 for the LA Angels, I'd be emotionally very nervous too.  If he is only going to slug 560 in his 30's, well, that just doesn't mean the end of the division for me.  Fans think of Albert as the 660 SLG hitter.   Fans think, wow, the Angels just landed the 2008-09 Pujols.  But have they?

Albert Pujols, slugging 660, has been a force of nature.  It is not clear that the Angels are getting that player.

Fielder: 8 is the new 6

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I/O:  Cubs want shorter years, higher dollars.

CRUNCH:  I love fans.  You know I do.  But based on the chat threads you see ... fans would prefer 6/$175 to 100/$175.

Tell them that they could get Felix for 5 years, $25M per, and they'll put on their dancing shoes.  Tell them that they could get him for 8 years, $20M per, and they'll fret about Felix' $20M being on the docket in 2019.  ... the fact that they scored the last three years for $11M each won't register.

Think it through and you'll see that more years, fewer dollars, are to the ballclub's advantage.  The clamor to keep the years down is purely an emotional reaction to the image of paying an injured player.  

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In MLB, the math is (generally) correct to get more years on your contract.  Reading the tweet-leaves, right now the Mariners are up for 8 years, while the Cubs, Nats and Jays are not.

Smoak vs Clement: Plate Coverage

 ............ a little T-Rex action for yer?  Somebody stapled his elbow to his ribs.

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=== Difference Two:  Plate Coverage ===

Almost the day that Jeff Clement was drafted, Inside Pitch gave me the bad news.  This kid can't see the pitches, he said.  Looks like Thome, sees like a football player.

Clement had short arms, a huge chest, no leverage, a muscled sledgehammer swing, and (1) he couldn't hit anything on his hands.  He also (2) couldn't see anything bendy.  

(3) Guess what happened when something bent AND moved to his hands?   One of the worst pitch type values in the history of F/X.  He had a lifetime run value of -3.08 on sliders and -2.42 on cut fastballs (which are hard sliders).

It was tragic watching Clement try to swat an offspeed pitch on the insider third.  Spec points out that Clement is not on Pittsburgh's 40-man.  He'll probably never be on anybody's, ever again, because he has demonstrated that there are several kinds of ML pitches he just cannot hit.

POTD Jaso - up indicators at the plate

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Q.  Is there any good news, offensively?

A.  Three pieces of great news.  First:  Jaso plays catcher.

Dr. D isn't saying that Jaso can't OPS+ 90.  SSI liked USSM's point that these Casey Kotchman* types have high floors.  

What is a 90 OPS+ catcher worth to you?  If this were Kotchman for 1B, that would be one thing.  No, we're talking about a #8 hitter who is going to get on base twice against Dan Haren.  And then you've got your Ackley-Carp-Smoak combo coming up.  That collateral damage will win games.

As G-Money says, he hits lefty in Safeco, too.

SSI isn't bullish on Jaso's offense -- relative to left fielders.  LOL.

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Batted-Ball MPH: The M's Flamethrowers

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Q.  Okay, what is the good news and bad news for the hometown nine?

A.  For one thing, be aware that you're about to see the Seattle Mariners' defense get a lot better.  They are migrating from a staff full of Jarrod Washburns into a staff full of Michael Pinedas.

We have discovered the existence of pitchers' batted-MPH skill -- and we have discovered which pitchers have it, discovered that pitchers with high K/PA allow low MPH in play.  James Paxton, Danny Hultzen and Taijuan Walker are even more valuable after Fast's article than they were before it.

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Notice that Michael Pineda's BABIP was absurdly low last year, .258.  He has two, maybe two point five, of the three weapons used to induce weak swings.  He's got a 97 mph fastball.  That cuts your BABIP from .300 to maybe .285, judging by Nolan Ryan.

R-E-S-P-E-C-T Dept: QED in 500 words, eh :- )

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In a slow news week, Dr. D skateboarded around the block and .... folded waist-first over a steel handrail of scoffing over at his favorite site.  

Six (6) separately-identifiable jeers in the first 100 words .... slap me silly.  :- )   This is just baseball, right?   This much toxicity over a difference of opinion over baseball moves?

Okay, well, if tonight's movie runs the High Noon call out into the street, amigo ... what's good for the goose is good for the gander, right?   ::spurs clinking::

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Dr. D's baser instincts were not helped by the comments section to that thread.  Put on some leather hightops first, if you're going to go check it out.  It starts out vicious and mean-spirited, and then they get loose.  Sacre bleu, somebody take a nap.  

We ain't real sure that we need to be chortling over having "fueling up our hatred" of a Times writer for his intellectual positions on baseball.

Way to give it to him, man!  I'm unfollowing Baker right now!  Thanks so much for your epic a** slam!  Can't wait to see you kick his can again!

::whew::

... I'm unfollowing.  I'm not reading.  I don't listen to him.  He's an idiot.  He's a punk. I haven't read Baker in ages.  HAHAHA.  Time to fuel up my hatred of Baker for another year.

This is not the language of enlightenment.  And I did not notice any reference to the fact that Jack Zduriencik has stated a desire to execute Geoff Baker's recommendations.

R-E-S-P-E-C-T Dept: The Mike Carp of Major League GM's

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=== Good News Dept. ===

In fairness, Zduriencik has put it on the marquee now.  Hey, we are wide open to a monster deal, says he.  Give credit where it's due.

Sometimes I think that we forget that Lincoln and Armstrong are willing to push all in when they are confident in the GM.  You remember Lincoln saying "It's very easy to raise payroll when it's Pat Gillick spending the money."

Zduriencik seems to have hit the point to where Lincoln and Armstrong want to throw him the ball.  Here's where SSI does give them a bit of a pass, and Bavasi a bit of blame, for the 2004-08 years.  

SSI isn't so incredibly naive as to imagine that Bill Bavasi is unintelligent or illiterate.  But SSI does grant that Bavasi never established heavy credibility.  He didn't.

Tip Drill - Seahawks Linkage

 

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I/O:  Tarvaris Jackson was 'lightly throwing the ball around' and 'has a chance to play' against the Browns.

CRUNCH:  My son and daughter were distraught at this news:  I THOUGHT YOU SAID WHITEHURST WAS GOING TO PLAY!  SOME DAD YOU ARE!  REMEMBER HOMER, YOU CAN ALWAYS FIND EAST BY STARING AT THE SUN!  was the least offensive of it.

My initial reaction was puzzled:  "Well, hang on, what does 'throwing the ball around' mean?"  I mean, I can flip a ball with my forearm if I have a ripped labrum...

PTI: Third Base for 1H-2012 (4 - Figgins, Imports)

Q Rockies Jeff:  I've seen a lot of Reynolds and seen everything on Stewart.  Pass-a-deena.

PTI Jemanji  ::noted::

The free agent market is thin at 3B this year, and a lot of the cheap options look too flawed. The takeaway point:  Go big or go home.  There isn't a lot of point, bringing lukewarm veteran 3B's into this young, dynamic roster in flux.

If you can go after a David Wright magnitude option, fine -- else the in-house options, short-term and long-term, are the way to go.

Zduriencik's job becomes more Stars & Scrubs as he goes along:  his job is to either to (1) convert quantity into quality, dealing 3 possibles for 1 certainty, or (2) use his draws at the deck, his fungibility, to give him production...

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