As you know, D-O-V is in favor of giving the cake a chance to bake. Prospect after prospect, we jazz all smooth about his callup, and then give him sixteen AB's to prove he's the real deal.
To me, that's almost the definition of talent judgment, though -- an Earl Weaver or Lou Piniella or Theo Epstein Pat Gillick can point his finger at a player and say, "THAT one" -- and then give the young player 400 or 800 or 1,200 at-bats to prove that he's the real deal.
Matty:
+++ [As Ichiro goes) ...so go the Mariners.
No single player can decide EVERY game, but here's a fun fact.
When Ichiro gets no hits, the team is 1-4. :) +++
LOL on the sample size quip. Which just now reminds me, that you've been alerting us to this for a couple years now ... I'm becoming more and more convinced.
Saturday, Ichiro notices that the M's are down 1-0 ... Gutierrez on first base, TWO out, and a single might accomplish nothing. Ichiro blasts one into the power alley, base of the wall, to score Gutierrez.
I'll take Felix and Bedard OVER any other 1-2 in the league right now. I'm talking about this season, two guys, who do you want.
I'm not interested in comparing Greinke and Meche's performances, over 10 games, tit-for-tat. I'm interested in the fact that Gil Meche isn't as good as Felix Hernandez.
Edwin Jackson and Justin Verlander are tough. Just not as tough as Felix and Bedard. (Jackson's career ERA is 4.69. It's not time to anoint him a top-10 starter.)
=== RUSS BRANYAN, Sizzler ===
A week or two ago, Branyan struck out a few times chasing good FB's up the ladder. Since then, the league has been trying to get him out on high FB's.
Go to MLB.com and check the GameDay on Sunday. Behold Kevin Slowey's relentless barrage of straight pitches at the top of the strike zone. This is what a lot of guys have been doing.
RotoChamp Taro sez:
+++ Bedard is good but he aslo really fragile. For me it comes down to the contract terms. His agent wanted 7 years at $14mil per WHEN he was traded to Seattle. The market is DOWN since then. Dunn just signed for 2/$10mil.
Bedard takes 5 years for $65mil or so and its a deal. +++
I respect the position as being logical. But as you might guess, I'm going to ping-pong this one back...
The market was soft THIS winter, but do you expect $13M to be the going rate for the league's best pitcher, for the next five years?
The general consensus in Seattle is that you have to be careful re-signing Branyan because he's 33 with "old player's skills." The consensus is wrong.
;- )
Bill James pointed out, in the 1980's, that those with "old player's skills" TENDED TO age a little worse. He specifically applied this to Seattle's own Alvin Davis, who came up with lots of walks and power, but no speed.
=== DRIVES ME CRAZY Dept. ===
Amazing that the defense over-shifts Branyan *even when Ichiro is on first.* This means that the defense is willing to concede not only a free single -- it is willing to concede even a free double. A bunt hit, with Ichiro on first, changes the situation from 1B, 0 out, to 1B + 2B, 0 out. That's the same as if Branyan led off with a double, and Ichiro walked behind him.
In the shift, the third baseman is playing SS, and cannot possibly turn a bunt into an out. Even if Mr. Friedrichsen from Up is running.
... 2 slot, both in the batting order, and in the Mariners' 2010 offensive priorities. We hope.
It's been really neat to see Don Wakamatsu use his beefy 1B in the #2 hole -- when his beefy 1B is his only hitter (other than Ichiro). The common idea is to put your Jack Clark in the #4 hole, so that two or three guys can be on for his homers.
The Big Unit wrapped up #300 and they had Tim Kjurkian on to trowel on the praise. He said two things that caught our ears:
1. That the Unit is one of the 15 or 20 best pitchers ever, and the third best lefty ever, behind Grove and (um) Warren Spahn.
2. That the next pitcher to win 300 games is absolutely not active in the major leagues right now.
.
=== DAMNING WITH FAINT PRAISE Dept. ===
Almost as good as Warren Spahn! Wow, Bobby Sue, imagine that.
LisaMariner gave us an exec-class memo on Erik Bedard's radio interview Thursday. http://www.marinercentral.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=2628
Most interestingly, Bedard publicly "announced" that he would like to be a Mariner long-term. The mainframe crunch on this:
.............
