Ditto, Doc. Seager batting 3rd and Morales batting 5th is comforting.

As I said in the shouts, I don't think we'll NEED to use the QO to keep him, but we should definitely keep him. And to be fair, Cameron even states that Morales has value for the 2014-15 Ms. I want Kendrys as a bridge to contention in the next year or two, and then to kids like Peterson and Choi beyond that. No, he can't run bases. No, he's not Edgar at the plate. But for a team that's been wandering in the desert for 40 dog-years (more like 70 dog years, really) looking for a MOTO hitter over multiple years, passing on Morales because he's "only" a DH would be... overly optimistic on our part. Kendrys is the hitter he's always been - and that's the hitter we need, especially since he won't break the bank.
Good MOTO hitters don't fall from trees in these parts. They're mostly buried under them, in fact, providing fertilizer. So if it took the QO to keep him, then I'd use it. If it doesn't and we can negotiate him to something more like 2/20, then I'm good with that. Letting him walk because we didn't want to pay him 9 or 10 over multiple years and are terrified he might take the 14 is a cheap way to run an org that's gonna be swimming in money the season after next. Excuse me: swimming in MORE money.
 
~G

I do not care what Kendrys has done the second half of this year... call fatigue, normal slump, realization that he is not going to a team in the play-offs, or just nagging injuries building up... This team NEEDS a proven hitter that the kids are comfortable with.
Yes, Jack will spend money in the off season, but you have to have continuity... and I do not want that to be Raul, unless Raul is a coach.
Let's make life easier for our kids for once...please.

First off, his wRC+ for the season is 120. His career average is 118. Dave wasn't picking on a cold month, he took data and split it into two groups, with the second group containing 290 pa's. So this isn't knee jerk analysis. His BABIP on the season is 12 points higher than his career average, and his ISO is down year over year for 3 consecutive years. He gets a break in the wRC+ for his home park, but even then it is almost exactly at his career average. And you've also decided to focus solely on his hitting and completely ignore his base-running and defensive value. It's been pretty convincingly stated that he is AT BEST a bottom 5 base-runner in all of baseball since he came up, and quite possible the #1 worst. Those runs he is giving up on the base-paths are real runs. You can't just say "his ops+ is 126 and there's a chance that he could turn into an MVP caliber hitter after turning 30" while ignoring that his position and base-running eat away a lot of the offensive contribution he makes. He just isn't as valuable as you think he is. There's more to the story.
I understand that the Mariners have run out horrible offenses for the last few years, and even though they are still a below average team, it makes it more enjoyable to watch them score more runs. So yeah, giving one of the team's best hitters 14 million for 1 year doesn't seem like a horrible idea. But the issue raised by this analysis is this: instead of paying 14 mil for 1 year of a 30 year old DH with no other baseball skills, why not try to find better all around baseball players. I think his statement that Morales isn't worth $14 million is correct. However, given the Mariners payroll situation, if giving him $10 million doesn't preclude you from signing better players, there isn't a lot of harm there. So we are in unison on that point.

AND he hits into a lot of double-plays.  Neither of those things drop his overall value much.   And because he doesn't play the field (much) he doesn't have defensive woes.  I've never understood the need to "punish" DHs for defense.  They don't play it, so some players would actually improve their value by moving to DH instead of hurting their teams in the field. DHs do bat every game, though.  If the thought is that any idiot can sit on the bench and just bat 4 times a game, well... that hasn't been my experience.  There are plenty of terrible-glove players who can't DH because they need to play the field to keep their rhythm.  Not needing to do that actually helps Kendrys have value to us since we don't have the personnel to rotate through the position and could use a full-time DH who can drive in runs.
Full-time DH is a hard position to fill. Well, not for the As every year, but for the rest of us. Half the DHs that played this year are basically worthless and we can't afford to have one of those. Morales is a top-60 hitter by wOBA and as you say, is around his career mark at that ranking.  People can get flustered about WAR/$ figures and think he isn't worth the $14 million, but if he's worth 10 (and he is) then do you risk an overpayment to make sure you don't lose him?  Sure you could use that other $4 million on someone else, but if you don't get him and don't have a DH who can hit (or a 1B who can drive in runs) then you are required to find a corner OF who can.
I'd like both, so make sure Morales comes back, whether it's for 7 million, or 10, or 14.  Like I said it shouldn't take 14, but if we have to lay that bet against losing him I'd understand it.  I don't think we'll have to.  We'll see how Jack feels.
~G

But there's no way I bet my 2014 roster on it - just like I'm not betting on Franklin being Utley or Miller being Jeter.  If they all turn into greats, then terrific! But you build the offense with them being no more than average players.  If they're great, we'll have a great offense, but we need at least an average one to do anything, even with good pitching.  Build in redundancies and fallbacks.  Can't afford to have everything go perfectly.  This year certainly didn't for the offense.  Build a MOTO and then see if the kids can make the offense great instead of merely functional.
~G

They're punished because DH adds nothing of value to a team on defense. Any player, no matter how bad of a defender he is, can play the position. True, taking Adam Dunn out of right field and putting him at DH saves your team runs, but that doesn't now make Adam Dunn more valuable relative to other players. So saying, "well at least Morales isn't butchering first base or left field on a nightly basis, so his value is higher than it would be if he played defense every night" might be true, but to account for the big hit for adding zero defensive contribution, 17.5 runs according to fangraphs, he has to be that much better on offense or base-running. His career wRC+ is 118. And it's been said already just how bad his base-running is.
So add it all up. Being the 60th best hitter in baseball while also being quite possibly THE worst base-runner and costing your team ~17 runs/year because your body can't handle any position defensively for more than a spot start here and there adds up to an OK baseball player. His last 4 years, ages 26-30, he has accrued 6.9 WAR over 1885 PA's, for an average of 1.7 per year. His last 3 years he has gone 1.2, 1.7, and 1.0 this year with a month to go. Is he more likely to make gains offensively or start slipping in his age 31 season? What's your opinion?
And I have to disagree with your statement that we don't have the personnel to rotate the position. We have a team full of DH types, so locking up that spot next year for 1 guy seems like it could put you in some tough spots with your roster like it has this year. Having less positional flexibility with one guy has a domino effect on the rest of the bench. Have 2 guys with no positional flexibility, well, we've seen how that plays out. Actually, we've had 3 DH's on this roster for the majority of the year.
But these are relatively minor quibbles. We both agree that Morales does provide something of value. I'm just not as exited as you and doc are about what he is as a total package. I don't think he's even worth $10 million a year, but with the Mariners payroll being what it is next year, the difference between 7 and 10 probably won't matter.

Since the season started, I'm not sure I've heard a single word on the effect of new distant of the fences. I'm assuming because the ballpark is now playing somewhat neutral.
That being said I'm wondering if the reputation of Seattle's ballpark of being a horrible place to hit take a few years to dissipate before free agents will look at Seattle as a place they would consider as a place to continue their career.

Is Zunino Gary Carter with the bat? If so, he could fit in cleanup. Ideally you would sandwich Seager and Morales around a RH bat. Guti slugs .483 over a career vs. lefties....he could actually hit cleanup vL, if he's not completely damaged. Other than that.....we'll need to buy one, I think.
Adam Scott has 11 PGA Tour wins. He's 33 years old, in his prime. He's won The Players, The Tour Championship and The Masters: Big things. He won The Dunhill in Europe, which is a semi-big thing. In fact, he's a semi-big thing. He's got the sex symbol looks, the silky-classic swing and the perfect touch at the microphone.
And he's found himself. His new caddy has helped, btw. I would not be surprised if he gets another couple of Majors in the next couple of years.
But in '16 the belly/long putter gets banned. It is no secret that he improved on the greens with the anchored style of putting. Can he "go short" again and win majors, where putting is such a key?
He's better than 50/50 for another major and 6 more wins, I think. If he gets two and 8, he's a HoF type player. Johnny Miller has 2 and 25. 3/19 is a better career. One more major will get him in the HoF, probably. But three is a big deal.
But the key will be the re-transition back to the short putter. I hope it works for him. He's very easy to root for.

I wasn't betting on Zunino as Carter going into '14, but was wondering if he had that kind of bat going down the line. For '14, find a guy who can get you home from 1B.
Were he not a bit fragile, I wouldn't sneer at us making a trade-runat Carlos Quentin with the Padrades. He's probably gettable and for $17M over the next two years pretty cheap (w/$3M buyout the following year...or #10M salary). And he actually hits righties a bit better than lefties over his career (slugs right at .500 against them).
He's principally a LF but can play RF.
If we've decided, as a team that Ackley and Saunders are 2/3 of an opening day OF AND we're keeping Smoak, then RF is the only sport for a cleanup hitter (assuming Morales stays).
Ackley/Saunders/Quentin w/Guti or Almonte at a 4th wouldn't be bad (if we're relly seeing a back-to-the-original Ackley). Much would depend on Guti's ability to play at a MLB level with this new diagnosis and his ability to resign for a lot less than his option.

If the Mariners are going to sign Jose Dariel Abreu... then I am ok with letting Morales go... otherwise... Nah

I think this is where I get hung up: DH penalties are invented.  They are not actual penalties.  Nobody ever said "wow, all AL teams are punished by having us randomly take a run off the board every 9 games that they play for having a DH."
It's for helping to assess positional difference when comparing Edgar to Bagwell, not for declaring worth on a field.  Morales doesn't cost anyone 17 runs a year just because it's a non-fielding position.  The DH position will be manned by someone or someones for every AL team. If I'm comparing the relative value of Morales to Seager (who doesn't play the easiest fielding position in addition to being a MOTO hitter) then the positional deduction has some merit.
But every run Morales plates is a real run, and the comparison is not Morales vs. Seager, it's Morales vs. all other DH possibilities, so the 17-run guesstimation isn't a factor at all.  They don't take a 17% deduction on DH RBIs.  Yes, his running loses him some value.  Yes, he hits into a ton of DPs.  Since every team fields a DH, though, there has to be somebody in that spot for the 150 games a year that a DH gets to play in.  Maybe we could get by with a platoon there and save ourselves some cash - but it's a risk.
Mariners DH sOPS+ since 2003: 124 (Gar!), 92 (Gar...), 88, 63, 88, 58, 91, 62, 72, 60, 114 (Kendrys!) 
Between Gar and Kendrys there was NOT ONE player or group of players that managed even a league average positional output at DH.  If it was easy to do you'd think we'd have done it by accident before now.
BTW, you know the only two positions that we have had plus output at this season?  DH (114) and 3B (116).  First base, left field and center field are about average.  Everything else lags on the year.  Now, Miller and Franklin should bring us up to average at 2B and SS, but we still only have two plus hitters.
I don't care where the second (or potential third) one hits as long as he DOES hit. 
~G

What I am arguing, which I clearly stated in my post, is this. His career average is 120. His last 3 years, generally accepted by everyone as the best indication of future performance, have been 128 over 200 PA's (the year he broke his ankle) 118 last year over 522 PA's, and 117 this year over 530 P's. So over his last 1,000 PA's, he has a 118 wRC+. And he just turned 30. If you think he is done "battling injury" now that he has turned 30, well....
The career year where he posted a 136, his BABIP was 20 points higher than his now career average, and his ISO was 60 points higher than his now career average. If you want to argue that the injury robbed him of production, you probably won't get many arguments. But the Mariners shouldn't be evaluating Kendrys Morales on what his career might have been if he had never gotten injured. They should valuate him based on his performance on the field combined with their future projections. If you wish to perpetuate the notion that he still isn't fully healed from his injury from 3 years ago and he is likely to return to his 2009 levels, then by all means go ahead. But I just don't agree. I think what he has produced over the last 1,000 PA's is a pretty good indication of what he is likely to be. A 115-120 guy, that literally does everything else really bad.
The difference between USSM's article and yours was a fully laid out case. His reasoning for keeping Morales was because Jeff pointed out that his gains as a RHB might be real, combined with the fact that he was at a 140 wRC+ at the time of the article over 200 PA's with a .335 BABIP. Dave said at the time that 140 probably wasn't real, but that at 125-130 he would endorse making the qualifying offer. Dave made mention that he was a bad base-runner, and that he was almost solely a DH. He fully acknowledged that his performance is tied completely to his offense. Since then, June 4, over 290 PA's, not the 30 days or 2-3 weeks or whatever number you keep pulling out of somewhere, he has been a 106 hitter. All combined he's at 117 for the year over 530 PA's. The reason I'm not busting his chops is because he laid out the case fully for using the QO, he explained why he thought his hitting might stabilize around the 130 mark, he acknowledged his lack of ability to provide any value anywhere else. Since then, Morales has reverted back to what he has been over the last 2 years, and Dave changed his stance. All of that seems perfectly reasonable.
You are straw manning this argument to death. When you say things like "Now it turns out that he can't hit .380 forever, and people are like "whooooa, check that, he's regressed." or "Kendrys isn't a mediocre hitter. Get that straight." or "Look at the trends across SEASONS, not across weeks.", you're making it sound like people are saying that he isn't a good hitter, or that people are making judgement over a months worth of plate appearances. Everyone that knows anything about baseball would say that he is a good hitter. Great hitter? Nope. I think you think he's a better hitter than he has been the last 2 years, but I think you're wrong. I think he's just as likely to have a down year next year as he is to have an up year based on his year to year performance and his age.

If teams pay 4-5 mil per win in free agency, should they pay more for DH's because everyone is forced to have one? Do they? I'm honestly curious.