The cost of an outfielder (11)

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mojicianHere's the vision: The outfield on Felix/Paxton/Walker day is Ackley/Ruggiano in left, Jackson in Center, and Boomstick in right. They just take naps out there when those guys are pitching anyhow. On Happ/Kuma flyball day, Ruggiano plays right and Ackley plays left. Miller and Ackley take spot starts all over the diamond, but Miller gets at least 2 days per week at shortstop.53 min 3 sec ago
TaroSo from the perspective of the seller it makes sense to deal at the moment that they think they can maximize the return. But from the perspective of the buyer, you've lost a lot of value by waiting. If you deal for Upton on July 30th instead of December, you lose 2/3rds of his season. You could have benefitted from a 4 WAR season, but you only get a 1.5 WAR season.1 hour 11 min ago
moethedogI'm mostly with Matt. I think it's a pretty good bet, well real good, that either Taylor or Miller is a full-time real deal this year....but I'm not quite ready to bet on both of them as such, right out of the gate. I want to worry about Jackson, but he had been so remarkably consistent, looking at 1/2 seasons, before his 54 mariner games that I can't help feeling he'll be a 100+ OPS+ guy, somewhere in the .740 OPS range. I worry most about Ackley among our OF's, to tell you the truth. Since Jackson may leave after '15, I think I would approach Rasmus and say, here's 2 years at $8M, today only. In or out? It doesn't seem that he's getting big offers....he might take that. But a year of Aoki and a .350 OBP leading off vR would be quite palatable.1 hour 14 min ago
TaroAs in regards to Upton, I think its an interesting debate. I think the Braves probably could have landed similar value at the deadline, but whatever team acquires him would have 'lost' the half season of production from Upton. Therefore, he would be significantly more expensive to acquire for the buyer even if he commanded the same or similar return.1 hour 14 min ago
TaroRick, meant more in the context of improving our own roster. Acquiring any similarly valuable OF for a hole in RF in July will be much more expensive for us than it would be now due to the limited number of options and competition for those resources. This was what happened last July and will likely not get better. Beane's method of evaluating your team and then fishing at the deadline is no longer viable in the new market.1 hour 19 min ago
SABR MattThe idea of rotating Cruz into the outfield only works when you have a left handed right fielder1 hour 20 min ago
TaroTrue, but I'd assume that we would target guys who aren't doing terrible like Morales/Denorfia were at the time. Even Hart was a bargain bin guy coming off a huge layoff. Smith is coming off a 132 wRC+. Anybody can underperform in a given year, but you want to improve your team and some insurance when you can.1 hour 23 min ago
SABR MattMojician...Who plays right when Cruz doesn't? Certainly not Ruggiano, who is also right handed?1 hour 27 min ago
rick82But you don't get half a season of anyone in the offseason, Taro, so I remain perplexed by this idea that if we wait, we pay more. Atlanta dealt Upton in the off season to maximize his value, right? Had they waited til mid season, they would either have gotten more, or less in return. They dealt him now, so I'm saying they must agree that a seller gets more overall value in the off season than in the middle of a pennant race. Either that, or they are anxious to play with new toys. This is the team that gave up a ton of talent to get half a season of Teixeira, so they have experience in mid season blockbusters. Yet they moved him in December. I think that regardless of the added wild card, the market has changed since then and teams don't want to give up a lot of prime talent in mid season.1 hour 31 min ago
mojicianMatt, it was your point that the Boomstick likes to play outfield a lot too. Jogging to and from right field helps him knock the rust loose for his home run trot. That's already four outfielders, before you talk about James Jones.2 hours 16 min ago
jemanjiScintillating discussion amigos - an "editor's choice" post would simply paste in the last 70 shouts ...2 hours 18 min ago
SABR MattI think if you can get Aoki for one year, and not two, he is a good hedge you aren't married to...I don't want Taylor to be the full time starting shortstop, which means I don't want Miller in the outfield...which means we need a lefty outfielder2 hours 24 min ago
Gordon GrossGood call beni - gotta be able to be flexible in a pennant year. If Cano or Seager has a bad year, you can ride it out. if Ruggie or LoMo (or a new platoon lefty OF) collapses in the early going, you'd better find some production. And with the raft of relievers we carry to build one of the best pens in the biz, it makes it tough to mix and match.2 hours 39 min ago
mojicianPreach it out Ben! No more Hart/Morales/Denorfia loooooooooooooooooooooooooooonnnnnnnnnnnngggg leash for entitled veterans.2 hours 50 min ago
benihanaMy worry is that your hedge, if it looks anything like the Corey Hart's of years past, is also going to have a long leash. Young guys provide more flexibility because we can option them down. This team is too deep, with to few bench spots, to carry someone who you can't easily part with. If Miller has a bad April he goes to AAA, if Seth Smith has a bad April he gets a bad May, and maybe beyond. To really hedge against the negative WAR you need someone you are willing to move off of, and nobody out there fits that profile for me at a reasonable price.2 hours 57 min ago
TaroI'm not saying half a season of Upton is more valuable than a full season, but half a season of Upton at the deadline will cost significantly more than something of similar value to half-a-season of Upton in the offseason.3 hours 34 min ago
TaroYeah, in general mid-season deals are significantly more expensive since the addition of the 2nd wild-card. That's why we shouldn't be afraid of excess MLBers. You can always deal them at mid-season if one of your young players surprise.3 hours 42 min ago
TaroAh, true. I didn't realize we were #1. 5 teams with 3-4 WAR though. 9 within 6-7 WAR. Don't want a unnecessary hole on our roster to cost us at the end of the year.3 hours 43 min ago
Gordon Grossbeni, I consider that the same thing. If Ackley wasn't cutting it but Kivlehan could be considered ready in May, then you just bench Ackley, promote Kivlehan the wonderstud, and let him tear the league limb from limb. Because that's not a bet I'm willing to make, we need the bridge. :-) We need enough ABs to go around between guys who can be at least league-average hitters to keep the black holes away. No more Romero / Montero / Morales / Brendan Ryan performances at the plate, y'know?3 hours 54 min ago
rick82For example, had Baltimore dealt Eric Bedard at mid-season instead of when they did, do you think they had gotten more than what they got from us? Perhaps, since he had a couple more seasons, but I'm talking about rentals here, and Upton would have been a rental. Half an Upton season should cost less than a full Upton season. Do you think the Braves would have done better to wait unitl mid-season to deal him? If they thought so, they would have done so, I think.3 hours 58 min ago