Seattle Sports Insider

...Good read, as usual, from Geoff Baker on the fact that the M's are moving runners over less often than other teams. 

We especially like Geoff's clear, clean writing as it pertains to (low) assumption of audience knowledge.  He starts by explaining the difference between RISP and productive outs, and does so without conveying any impatience about having to do so.

Even when I know a subject like the back of my hand, I still prefer for a writer/speaker to use low assumption-of-knowledge.  It helps me get my bearings quickly and hop up the ladder to more-organized thinking. 

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...Q.  Are there times when moving runners along is good?

A.  (1) when you have two runners you're moving along, Dr. D is always pleased, but note even here the massive power of an out:

• 0 out, men on 1B + 2B = 157 runs per 100 innings
• 1 out, men on 2B + 3B = 147 runs per 100 innings!

Runners on base, nobody out, that's the truly scary situation for the defense.  You don't want to give it up!, by bunting (or by swinging weakly for the right side).

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Q.  Maybe the Mariners should be giving up outs, since their team OPS+ is about 20, which skews the RE way down below the tipping point ?

A.  From my standpoint, it's just reducing your (non-existent) margin for error.   The M's can't score 4 runs with 27 outs.  How are they going to do so with 23 outs?  And by giving away all their best rallies?

Still, with Wilson or Johnson at the plate, or against a great pitcher, yeah.  Manufacture runs and hope dearly for your own pitcher to be on fire that day.

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...Q.  Is Don Wakamatsu a third-order thinker on his "productive outs"?

A.  Bill James' and Baseball Prospectus' and Tango's and Etc.'s Run Expectancy charts are such simple data that it is impossible to imagine that Wakamatsu, or any ML manager, is oblivious to them.

Again, Baker relays to us that Wak is trying to persuade his hitters to make productive outs:

What we're talking about here, and what frustrates manager Don Wakamatsu, is situational hitting. Because if you get a guy to third base with only one out, there are ways to score that runner without a hit.

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Just taking a look at some splits and then double-splits for my man Mike (you can look it up -- not that you would -- but I've been on the bandwagon since High Desert).

Admittedly small amounts of data, so no real conclusions being drawn.  For info-tainment purposes only, please.

Obviously, handedness stands out first:

vs. RHP: .258/.343/.460

vs. LHP: .200/.234/.356

So far, a solid contributor against righties, but seeming to really struggle against LHP.

And another thing that stands out is Safeco-friendliness:

Home: .250/.345/.474

Away: .237/.290/.398

4 hits in this ChiSox series boosted his road numbers.  Without being totally comprehensive, it appears that the last rookie to OPS over .800 at Safeco was Chris Snelling, but he only played 19 games.

And, by month:

May: .220/.273/.415 -- 4 xbh, 3 BB, 15 K

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..Q.  Any video available on Lueke?

A.  If you know of any, please hook me up :- )

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Q.  What's the template, then?

A.  There are a number of tall RH relief aces with ballista-arms who (1) throw a slider so tight-spin that it's harder to hit than a knuckleball and (2) throw an easy 95.

Back in the day, you had Jeff Nelson, of course, you had Kerry Wood (who has abandoned his slider), you had Rich Harden, KRod and, before he got hurt, Mark Lowe.  Guys like that.

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....

Q.  Sorry, still don't buy it.  Sliders to get the off-platoon out?  Consistently?  Whatever the numbers say, I just can't see it.

A.  OK, then visualize Randy Johnson's slider against RH's. 

Or Erik Bedard's hook against RH's.  Or Cliff Lee's.  Picture's worth 1,000 words.

How did the Big Unit strike out 2,000 right handers with his slider?  It just moved too much.

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...Q.  Bottom line on the personal baggage?

A.  He's been judged.  And punished.

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Q.  Will Lueke be able to put it behind him, though?

A.  He will, and apparently has.  As Mariner Central denizens pointed out, he's representing himself as a devout Christian these days.  Twit-O-Vision :- ) translation as to what the Scripture-list conveys has been suggested; we may do that shortly...

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The optimistic take to the GM's 'non-response'?  ... is simply that it's easier for Capt Jack to sell a GM on a "change of scenery" scenario, if Figgins isn't benched the week leading up to the trade deadline.  Do you want to park your star's keister on the bench and then tell your friends to go scout him?

If Zduriencik apprised Wok of this, back channel, that he's working some things ... then Wok can go about his business with no loss of face.

It would be a Betancourt reprise -- he plays for a little while but at the first chance, he's off the team.  The Betancourt Powerflush swirled the Mariner bowl for a long time.

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=== Mecha-Pineda ===

Zduriencik recently hinted that Pineda is going to be a Mariner shortly. 

Mega Pineda -- hey, when the other team goes with that, how can we not -- is at 111 innings on the year, and you'd have to assume that the taxi meter is down to about 40-50 more innings this season.  So, if he's going to get the same kind of taste that Doug Fister did in 2009, prior to a next-season splash, Pineda will have to be up approximately next start or the one after.

:shrug:  There isn't the slightest point in delaying Pineda another couple of starts.  What's supposed to happen during those two PCL starts?   More nine-K runs?

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