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Trading Places (Part II) ...

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In Part I, we took an in depth look at Jack Zduriencik’s Mariner trade history and his approach of roster construction thus far.

Zduriencik talked about his approach to trades with Kevin Calabro on Monday. In talking about the Montero deal, Jack said the following regarding the deal – and in the process discussed his overall approach to any trade that he makes. Boiling it down, here is ...

Jack Zduriencik’s TUNNEL VISION MODEL ...

Trading Places (Part I) ...

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Where do we go now?

Where do we go?

Oh, Whoa, Whoa, Whoa

Where do we go now?

No, no, no, no, no, no

Sweet child,

Sweet child of mine.

For many Mariner fans, that has become their theme song that Prince Fielder has found $214 million reasons not to come to Seattle. Moving forward, how do the Mariners honestly look to improve an offense that for second year in a row, was one of the worst offenses in the history of baseball? The 2010 Mariners scored a grand total of 513 Runs - worst run production total by any team since the advent of the DH in 1973. The 2011 Mariners improved slightly by scoring 556 runs (the fewest since the 1992 Dodgers) ... and once again finished dead last (30^th out of 30 Teams – AL and NL) in every other major offensive statistical category as well -- Team Batting average (.233) ... On Base Percentage (.292) ... and Slugging Percentage (.348).

How do you honestly look to improve that?

Grand Design

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My take on Z and his grand plans for the Ms.

1) Upon arrival, Seattle was an absolute disaster. Minors were utterly empty offensively and most of the pitching talent was years away. Payroll was out of whack and the club had zero upside youth beyond Lopez. I think Jack knew from day one, it was going to take 3 years (minimum) just to clear away the debris from the previous regime and begin constructing an actual farm system. But, I think he also understood that under no circumstances whatsoever was he allowed to say so in public. I believe he had a 5-7 year plan from day one and accepted that he had to sell that the truth was anything but that.

2) I think the Putz trade was all about priming the minors pump. Guti was good enough to sell the "idea" that he was part of a quick-fix effort. Branyan, Griffey and Sweeney all helped make 2009 a year 400% beyond expectation. But, Guti was the only guy on the roster likely to stick around for any length of time. I think after watching Yuni and Lopez in 2009, Jack understood that Lopez and Yuni were likely on the way out, but the minors were no help.

Read more about Grand Design

Hired Guns

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Dr. K sez,

If I were Jack, I would be aggressively pursuing a salary dump in the outfield or third base. My criteria would be not too many years left on the deal, say one or two. If you could get Carlos Lee for a bucket of balls, I do it. He doesn't damage your flexibility. I don't want Alfonso Soriano because he has three years left on his deal. Sadly, doesn't look like there are any good salary dump options at 3B.

Alternatively, they wait until the trade deadline and if the M's surprise us, they will have the payroll flexibility to add salary.

What I don't want to do is trade premium youth for expensive veterans. Would you trade Nick Franklin and Taijuan Walker for the privilege of paying David Wright $31M total the next two years?

:50 cpoints:

And Zduriencik has absolutely nothing against short-term hitters:

Jack Cust for DH last year ... could be (was) even called a reach by Dr. Dimento
Adam Kennedy at ages 34-35 in the middle infield, "saved" the M's 1st half
Milton Bradley in LF wasn't going to be here more than a year or two
Casey Kotchman, a weird glove-first "Moneyball" band-aid, was always going to be a bridge player here
Eric Byrnes came in as spaghetti against the wall, would have played if he'd been good
Russell Branyan was used for 1.5 years at ages 33-34, was not part of Z's future
Sweeney and Griffey

Read more about Hired Guns

Spilled Milk, Dept.

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Top 10 Things About Prince Fielder Going To Detroit:

12. Won't have to listen to MLB Network dudes talking about Texas' "Best Lineup Of Alllll (echo) Tiiiiime (echo)" (yes, really)

11. Series of fun blog posts vs. Scott Boras as "Ben Stein Without Charisma" (seriously, nice job, Scott)

10. Mariners no longer appearing in 20,000-vote MLBTR polls as "Other"

9. Will not have to watch 2020 Prince Fielder as penance for watching 2012 Prince Fielder

Read more about Spilled Milk, Dept.

Who Are the Other Three? (& other tidbits)

Jack told the radio folks that there were four young hitters that he would have parted with Pineda to get. Montero was one. Who are the other three?

Mike Stanton I would be pretty confident about.

Freddie Freeman maybe next? Read more about Who Are the Other Three? (& other tidbits)

From DH to C: Generic diff is 30 runs. For M's it's 40 to 60

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It's not hard to get a feel for the value of JESUS MONTERO, C if you zero in on the paradigm of player-pairs.

The generic adjustment is to assume that you'll see about 25-30 runs' worth of offensive difference between C and 1B. The M's, however, don't have Mike Napoli or Victor Martinez or Russell Martin at catcher; they have Miguel Olivo. And it ain't like Adam Moore is going to come up and improve the position.

For the M's, on Opening Day 2012, let's compare Miguel Olivo at his 2011 level of production (3.1 runs per 27 outs) and Justin Smoak at a 115-120 OPS+ level of production, about 6.0 runs per 27 outs. 6.0 runs per 27 is high, you think? Actually, it's what the M's paid for, and it's below what Smoak has done in his hot streaks to date. But suppose you think Smoak will be gone. Fine, pencil Mike Carp in for the 115-120 OPS+.

Montero, C + Smoak/Carp 1B/DH = 95 runs created per season
Montero, 1B/DH + Olivo, C = 55 runs created per season

You're talking about 40 runs' difference if Smoak (or Carp) has a merely solid year, and that is assuming that Justin Smoak does not have a major breakout season -- say, 115 runs created, like Alex Gordon did last year. With Montero at catcher, you'd be giving yourself that chance to get a big Smoak season -- and therefore 60 runs' difference.

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The Pujols Comp

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Brian Cashman kidded Jack Zduriencik last week, saying that Albert Pujols' numbers are Montero-like. Cash was willing to go Mike Piazza or Miguel Cabrera on the comp, but Jay-Z raised him back with Albert Pujols.

Dr. D has seen zero commentary on this, other than on SSI. It is odd: nobody has been interested in even asking the question, "Why, exactly, does Zduriencik think that?" Possible answers:

Because he pulled the comp out of his ear?
Because he's trying to sell the trade?
Because he doesn't understand baseball the way we bloggers do?
Because of .... what?

Dr. D is feeling very, verrrrry lonely these days, because when Zduriencik makes a comparison like that, his reaction is to wonder about the thinking that goes into the process, not to simply wave it off as naive.

Jay-Z has not explained his thought process. But if Dr. D were comparing Montero to Pujols, this would be his thought process: that Montero has a combination of PWR and HIT that is combined by only a couple of players per generation, such as Albert Pujols.

Read more about The Pujols Comp

Projecting Montero: HIT x PWR

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Q. OK, he's got some PWR and he's got HIT at the same time. Is that realllllly so unusual?

A. Bill James wrote an article re-interpreting the McCracken premise (BABIP) and the Fangraphs-style GB, LD, FB, CT% etc and he started with this...

What makes hitters different from each other is four things. How many pitches they take, how often they hit the ball when they swing, how HARD they hit the ball, and how often they pull it.

Groundballs, they all hit .250 (or whatever). Line drives, they all hit .750 or whatever. Fly balls the other way, that's about the same too. But good hitters pull the ball in the air a lot ...

You get the idea. When you are talking about a hitter who can swing hard and still square the ball up, you're talking about a hitter who is simply a superior species. That's what the scouts are talking about.

Q. Couldn't you totally capture PWR x HIT by simply counting up K% and ISO, as in this approach?

A. No, you couldn't. Thanks for asking.

Projecting Montero: Age, Arc, and ... POSITION!

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Q. How can Jay-Z, or anybody, compare Jesus Montero to Albert Pujols, when Pujols' strikeout totals were so low in the minors?

A. SSI suspects that Jesus Montero's HIT tool may be similar to Pujols', yes.

True, Pujols struck out only 47 times in 133 games in his age-20 minor league season. But how old was Albert, really, when he defected to the U.S. and played high school baseball here? How old was he when he played junior-college baseball in Kansas City? All we know about Albert is that he showed up in the minors, saying he was 20 years old, and that he had a .320/.380/.550 year in the minors when they put him there.

Meanwhile, Jesus Montero fanned 47 times in 92 games at a real age 19, in A+/AA baseball ... how many times would Albert Pujols have struck out, if he were a catcher?

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