POTD Victor Martinez
Send More Martinezes to DH. The First One Played Perfect

.

Sez Rick the Biology Mag Editor

rick82Drayer seriously doubts the M's will go after Tomas, but thinks they'll be serious after VMart

....

Sez Aristotle, for only $3 per month ... there are like 200 of these Q-and-A mini-essays in the Hey Bill section alone, remember ...

Aristotle was like the guy who invented logic or something.  :: crickets ::   Nobody ever gets me.

....

So Victor Martinez ended up with 70 walks and 42 strikeouts. His HRs (32) were also in the ballpark of his strikeouts. You've pointed out how rare it is these days for hitters to have low strikeout totals, especially when compared to 50-60 years ago, but are Martinez's totals particularly freaky? (I also heard the Tiger radio guys say he hit .377 with two strikes, which they said "That just doesn't make sense!")
Asked by: julesig
Answered: 10/7/2014
Martinez' strikeout/walk data is extraordinary in context. The only other major league player with more walks than strikeouts this year in 200 or more Plate Appearances was Jose Bautista, who was +8 (104 to 96); Victor was +28. In baseball history there are 165 players who have hit 25 or more homers with 50 or fewer walks, but of those 165, 14 did it in the 1920s, 37 in the 1930s, 30 in the 1940s, and 43 in the 1950s. That leaves 41 who have done it since 1960; of those 41, 8 were in the 1960s, 8 in the 1970s, and 10 in the 1980s. That leaves 13 since 1990. The last to do that before Victor was Carlos Lee in 2008.

.....

Answer looks simple to Dr. D.  Go get Victor Martinez and Jose Bautista.

.....

Anybody else think of this as the Joe DiMaggio stat, where a guy gets as many balls over the fence as he gets Strike Threes?  I don't know what Spec's latest stat is, but that's got to be in there somewhere.

Dr. D views Victor Martinez as a gloriously talented hitter ... I mean, if you are hitting the ball hard, and you never miss when you swing, you're a couple of BB's away from being Miguel Cabrera before we ever talk about anything else.

Victor Martinez' slash line is different from Robinson Cano's mostly because of:

  • The home parks, and
  • The partial years (2002, 03, 08, and the bounceback 2013 seasons cut his stats)

Two Robinson Cano's, one left and one right.  Huh.  (Oh, wait.  That's talking about Victor Martinez by himself, isn't it?)

SSI wouldn't expect 32 dings and 103 ribbies next year.  But SSI also had little problem with Robinson Cano's statistics in 2014.  Some guys are great without the black ink. 

......

Q.  How will Martinez age?  

A.  Better, as a DH.  Better, as a guy coming off a 70 BB, 42 K season.  Better, as an ex-catcher who obviously loves ex-catching.

Comp him to any group you like, Tony, but remember to comp him to 36-year-old guys who just had as many balls over the fence as they had Strike Three's .... ;- )

........

The M's are one of the few teams with absolutely nothing against pure DH's, whether it be in their dugout or on their street signs.  Further, we are advised that V-Mart and L-Mac be BFF's.  So it's worth drooling.

The big argument is going to be, how many years.  Three?  Four?  The Mariners' trends on this issue have been towards the right side of the integer scale.  If you can give Robby 10, maybe you can give V-Mart four.  As with Robby, you get a value early and you he gets a value late.

Finish with a chuckle?  Here's where he says he doesn't even want a long contract.

Happy to oblige,

Dr D

Blog: 

Comments

1

The question is the outlay. 4 years sounds somewhat ideal for the teams needs even. If it's over $20 million per that could be the only semi-major contribution this offseason. Beyond that there are arbitration guys with paydays looming in that window. That all may not hamstring the finances in any way, but it's worth considering. If it's only an issue of money for 15 there is still the possibility of trading for a pre-arb or 1st year guy for another big need so there's ways to get creative. If it means he's the only big add I'm just not sure it would be the right move. I'll hope to see them get creative early to figure how it can happen though.

2

I hope he sticks to not wanting a long term deal and considers Seattle...dude can flat out rake and solves our MOTO problem entirely...he might even buy Cano some extra homers from the better pitches he sees.

4

If he's really available.
He's going to be very spendy....and you're going to be paying for his Age-39 season.
And he's not going to duplicate last year's homer total, a career high by a hefty (7 HR's) margin.
Assume the performance you're getting in the year or two before he declines is much like his '13:  .301-..355-.440 would be nice.
But, I'm doubting we are really in the market for him.

5

Even Ilitch is bound by some financial realities. He's likely got to choose between his pitching staff and Martinez. I can't see him signing both Martinez and Scherzer this year and extending Price & Porcello next year. They likely need to spend on a CF and some bullpen help this year as well. Too, Cabrera is going to need that DH slot at some point. I'll bet on them letting Martinez and Scherzer go this year. time will tell.

6

That was the last guy to lead his league in HR while having fewer Ks than HR. The HR/K talk reminded me of a fact that had amazed me for decades. That tidbit has stuck with me, just looked it up. That was 54. Among all seasons with 20+ HR to have fewer strikeouts (45 since 1901) that year was right at the end of that too. The next year he had 47/40 (Mays led NL in HR with 51/60ks still very good) Williams had 28/24, Berra had 27/20. Kluszewski followed that in 56 with 35/31 joined only by Berra at 30/29. Then 24 years later George Brett had 24/22. 24 years after that, in 2004, Barry Bonds* at 39 had 45/41. The last 58 years, only 2* times has a player hit 20+HR while striking out less often.

7

But it goes like this.
Chris Carter hit 39 homers last year for Houston.  He was the 3rd best DH in the game.  RC/G (B-R) was 5.0.  Nelson Cruz was the 2nd best DH in the game.  He was at 5.8.  A reliable 30 homers and 4.5 is nothing to sneer at.  Billy Butler got to 5.2 in '13 going .290-.374-.412.  He was at 4.0 last year.  Butler would be very nice, too.  But it's not a lock that he's any better than Trumbo in '15 or '16.  I would really prefer Harmon Killebrew but he's not around.  I think VMart is not "really" around either.  I believe he stays home.  I hope we wine and dine him.  I hope we do it early.  But don't drag it out.  The longer that happens the less we know what else we need to get.
Hey, the M's hit a TOTAL of 42 homers from the right side of the plate last year.  Total.  Carter hit 39!
Vs. LHP our RHB's hit .232-.288-.333.  Given the split ADVANTAGE our RHB's hit like Brendan Ryan.
We MUST add RH pop and it can only come at 1B/DH (I'm assuming one of those places goes to LoMo) or COF, unless we unload Jackson and try another RH centerfielder out......how would Stubbs work?
I like Saunders, quite a bit.  I like Trumbo's homers more....because it is the one thiing we don't have and most desperately need.
If we can do Van Slyke, etc...then great.  But Trumbo can likely be had, for something we can likely replace.
moe
 
 
 

8

Was that maybe because of the site maintenance?  Or has that been happening frequently?
......
Didn't mean to dis' your Trumbinator shout-out if that wuz you.  Didn't know who was on what side of the ball when we wrote it up.  
If Trumbo delivered 30 Safeco homers, with a 4.5+ runs per 27 here, I'd take him as DH.  No argument.
:: daps ::

9

The lost posts were all my fault, Doc.  (Stupid) Operator Error is solely responsible.
I believe that only 7 RH batters hit 30 homers last year:  Trout, Bautista, Abreu, Stanton, Cruz, Encarnacion, Carter.  It is a relatively rare skill set. 
It is also a huge M's need.
 

10

Starting by looking for OF/1b/DH as RHB who had 80+ PA vs LHP last year. I wanted guys who vs LH had .180 ISO, 120 WRC+ with season totals of 20+ HR and not unsustainable BABIP (like Stubbs' .404. JD Martinez .389 and Abreus .356 in question but without the history to be more certain.) This method misses some guys who've had previous years that would qualify like potential 2015 comeback player candidates. I didn't expect it to be all inclusive. In no particular order.
1 Jose Bautista
2 Giancarlo Stanton
3 Adam Jones
4 JD Martinez
5 Justin Upton
6 Nelson Cruz
7 Steve Pearce
8 Mike Trout
9 Andrew McCutchen
10 Carlos Gomez
11 Mike Morse
12 V-Mart
13 Edwin Encarnacion
14 Chris Carter
15 Jose Abreu
16 Miguel Cabrera
17 Carlos Santana
18 Paul Goldschmidt
19 Evan Gattis
Guys who face LH as RH and hit them well last year but fall short in some of those criteria include Napoli, Braun, Willingham, Rios, Jennings, Mayberry, Holliday, Ruggiano, Cuddyer, Kemp and Van Slyke. Butler has the history but just was not that guy last year.
There's not many there that are realistically available. The free agents there include Cuddyer (.351 BABIP vs. .312 career) Willingham (14 HR) Butler if he's bought out, Morse and Cruz who would both appear to not be options and V-Mart. Of course V-Mart is the only Free Agent on the original list.
Only 57 total players hit 20+ HR in 2014. Having 2 seems about average. Only 11 players cleared 30 HR. Nelson Cruz is the only one still playing. The only team with 2 30+HR guys, Toronto with Bautista/Encarnacion, were eliminated from contention Sep 23rd. It still seems the biggest need for this team even if the word need is a bit strong.

11

Because of injury, Trumbo barely got past the 80 PA's vL last year (90) and only hit 14 HR's in essentially 1/2 a year. But his vL numbers looked like something interesting.  .250-.333-.463 w/.327 BABIP.  ISO=.213 and WRC=115.
He fell a bit short of your standard in the WRC category.
However in his healthy '13 (in which he hit 30+ homers) he was .265-.324-.599 w/.273 BABIP.  ISO=.344 and WRC=154.
OK...a very hot year.  In '12 he was .266-.301-.506 with a WRC of 124
Over his career those numbers are .261-.308-.506 w/.299 BABIP.  ISO=.245 and WRC=123  He fits your list very nicely.
BTW, Trumbo's career vR numbers are .242-.294-.442.  If I don't count the "Lost in the Wilderness" Michael Saunders and only look at '12-'14 (even though I think '14 was a bit of an outlier) his vR numbers are (approx.) .252-.334-.434.
Trumbo beats up lefties and against righties he's just a bit worse than Saunders' best three years, and that is giving Saunders the split advantage.
OK...he doeesn't bring Saunders' OF glove.  But then, we've got OF gloves and we ain't got Trumbo-Jumbo-power.
Oh, "but he K's a lot," some you say.  OK...Trumbo K's 24.6% of the time, over his career, vR.  Only counting Saunders' "good" years, '12-'14, he K's 24% of the time...again, given the split advantage against righties.  Where's the beef?
Trumbo will do.
moe

12

But for me he falls into that Willingham, Cuddyer, Napoli group with other guys I didn't mention like Byrd, Ozuna, Cespedes, Hunter... Obviously some there are preferable but they all seem to represent an upgrade to Mariner lineups vs LHP. I'm kind of ignoring defense at the same time. After all of that I'm only more certain that shooting for V-Mart seems probably wisest and that Tomas wouldn't have to explode into MLB to have been a good acquisition. I mean one or the other really. There just isn't much available for power RHB or even in general.
I don't see removing one of our top bats to acquire a marginal upgrade though. Saunders was at 100 wRC+vs LH this year and 116 in 2012. I don't trust players numbers holding into Safeco, especially RH flyball hitters. Trumbo could easily do worse than Saunders the way I see it. Trading Saunders works in my book for many of the 19 in my first list, of course he'd only be part of a package for the ones I'm talking about. I like Cuddyer, Willingham and Butler around the same as Trumbo and they wouldn't cost Saunders.
Using the 80 PA min, LH vs LH, tied for 5th on the list in MLB at 145 wRC+ was Logan Morrison. He was also 5th in BA at .333, 9th in OBP at .368 and 7th in SLG at .478.
Trumbo apparently has put his Arizona home up for sale though.

Add comment

Filtered HTML

  • Web page addresses and e-mail addresses turn into links automatically.
  • Allowed HTML tags: <a> <em> <strong> <cite> <blockquote> <code> <ul> <ol> <li> <dl> <dt> <dd><p><br>
  • Lines and paragraphs break automatically.

Plain text

  • No HTML tags allowed.
  • Web page addresses and e-mail addresses turn into links automatically.
  • Lines and paragraphs break automatically.

shout_filter

  • Allowed HTML tags: <a> <em> <strong> <cite> <blockquote> <code> <ul> <ol> <li> <dl> <dt> <dd>
  • Lines and paragraphs break automatically.
  • Web page addresses and e-mail addresses turn into links automatically.