Time's A-Wastin'
Snuffy Smif Dept.

.

Any of you older amigos remember Barney Google and Snuffy Smif?  :- )  One of my all-time fave catch phrases, when one of the characters would panic, gird up their skirts, and run off the comic panel with the signature line.  No word, though, on whether Colin Kaepernick is ready to sell his wartime 'brand' to the U.S. Army for 0 dollars and 0 cents.  Heh.

....

At +5 over .500, in a big pack that is -3 games to the dubious Orioles, the M's are out of time.  In a coin-flip mode their chances are 1-in-6.  From here they'll need to play very well to ... earn ... a playoff spot.  Which brings up another Smif:  Smif Barney.  They made their money the old-fashioned way:  they earrrrnnnnnned it.

.

.

Taijuan will have to locate and throw a second pitch; the bullpen will have to lock down leads with at most 1, 2, blown saves the rest of the year; the offense will have to shake and bake; the Mariners will simply have to be the best team in the WC pack.  Can they be?  You doubt it.  ... I'll watch.

....

Edit to add Moe Dawg sez

.

A while back, just as we were getting hot, I wrote that at this point any mini-slump (which was always very likely) was going to make it pretty hard for us to get to the Promised Land.  I think I mentioned 1-4 & 2-5 type slumps.  Well, somebody mean was listenting to me and we've combined the worst of those numbrs to go 1-5.  Sigh.  But it was really very likely to happen....and it's likely that the teams ahead of us stumble through a 1-4 or 2-5 mini-slump before the season ends.  That's MLB baseball.  We're still hunting...but now we really can't afford ampther mini-slump.  We have to get hot again.....which is a stupidly evident statement, isn't it?

Just so.  The M's had dawdled through July, have now botched several more, and the margin for error is gone.  Which is to say, the 100+ win pace starts now or is irrelevant.

.

REASONS TO BELIEVE .ORG

The offense has been playing under its ability the last 14 days.  Cano and Seager are hot, but Nelson Cruz is slugging .358.  Seth Smith is .200/.226/.300 and it says here the man is good at hitting.  Mike Zunino has not been having the hits fall in -- he's .152 -- but he has taken a tremendous leap up.  Here's a fun Sullivan read on the topic, replete with .gifs.  Could be we'll go Arena Baseball the next coupla weeks.  Could be Tanner McElvoy will go for 800 receiving yards this year.  Could be Seattle Sports Insider will bail on the M's.  Y'can't take anything for granted.

.

James Paxton just got here, to Seattle after rehab, that is.  Could be the M's go 6-1 or 7-0 his last seven starts, starting tomorrow.  It's worth a simoleon.  Watch the game Tuesday!  There are worse things in life.

K-Pax is sitting on an 8.1 / 2.0 / 0.6 slash line for the season, leaving his FIP at 2.94 which would lead the American League comfortably over Kluber and Tanaka.  But, as you know, this 2.94 includes the debut San Diego start and is a mere shadow of Paxton's true potential which is, what, an 0.94 ERA or lower.  Koufax pitched the Dodgers into Game Seven, as did Hershisher in a glorious September run some twenty years later.

Seaver's biography was called "the team that couldn't win and the pitcher who wouldn't lose," or something.  Just James Paxton, that by itself, makes the Mariners better than sewing shoes for $1.00 US per day in Saigon.

.

Edwin Diaz is rested.  That's the big upside of being laid waste by your playoff rivals.  Your rookie superstar closer is tanned, rested, and ready to go.

Hey, the Mariners were -70 runs last year.  They're +36 this year, without any real transfer market signings by DiPoto this past November.  At that rate they'll hit Cubs level in 2018.

That's what was cool about watching the 2012 Seahawks, as they deployed certain young assets to jump from 'bad' to 'real interesting'.  You can't say that none of those guys could play, 'cuz some o' them sure as shootin' could.

Baseball Is Life,

Dr D

Blog: 

Comments

1

31 games left: Winning 21 games gets us to 89...which has for a long time been the likely Over/Under number.  In MLB Baseball, a 21-10 stretch is darn near like running the tables.  If I've done the math correctly, which is always problematic, a 52% team has just less than a 1% chance of going 21-10.  Running the tables, indeed.

And we're  talking about a 52% team with two broken 1B, a CF OPS'ing .569 in August and Smith on the decline.  Sigh.  BTW, remember WAY back when Martin his 9 homers in 187 April-May PA's?  The question of whether that was illusory or not came up.Well...it was:  He's hit 5 in 287 PA"s since.  But I won't complain too much (although I do think he swings for the fences too much).  Way back in the spring we all recognized that at 90 OPS Martin was a heck of a player.  At 80 he was borderline and at 70 he wasn't much.  He's at 90+ now.  Glad we got him.  I will say that his late-inning whiff last night, with two on, was a feeble effort.  Darvish poinded him away and our guy came out of shoes trying to bean somebody in the RF stands.  Hey, a rip the other way would have plated some runs nicely and was likely even possible.  Sigh...

Did it look like Cruz was seeing the ball badly lst night.  I though he missed several creamable (but hot) fastballs vs. Darvish in their last match-up.  His miss-by-a-mile whiff on the curve ball that done him in was fairly un-Cruz-like. 

The guys who put wood on the ball were our pesky guys: Marte, O'Malley and even Lind, who took something off his double swing to go get the curve nearly in the dirt. 

But I digress.  We were talking about running the tables.

21-10 is essentially that.  Do you have one of those spare Seavers laying around Doc?  6 starts from Tom Terrific between now and the finale wouldn't hurt us at all.  Hey, Seaver was just 24 years old in '69.  6 games from a Seaver-ish Taijuan Terrific (age 24, btw) would do nicely as a replacement.

Time to quit being a kid, kid.

2

Sending him out there in the ninth was pretty much a death knell. Well, he never should have started the eighth. 

Guess we really didn't need Montgomery around. Oh well, we got DiPoto's very own Justin Smoak, and we didn't even have to wait until we were 20 games back to do so. No sir, we grabbed him in the midst of a pennant race!

Am I bitter? 

3

Asking two innings of Diaz last night was tantamount to saying you wouldn't need him today.  What do I know, but I think Servais panicked a bit last night.

4

Easy to panic when your starting pitching cannot reliably log six innings - there is no way to properly manage a bullpen that has to give you 4 innings per night.

I know that Paxton is practically Sainted here on MC and saying anything negative about him invites attack...but the guy is simply unreliable beyond a given 8 game stretch. If he manages to avoid his hang-nail injury and goes six innings last night, Servais isn't in position where he has to use Diaz for multiple innings. 

Add comment

Filtered HTML

  • Web page addresses and e-mail addresses turn into links automatically.
  • Allowed HTML tags: <a> <em> <strong> <cite> <blockquote> <code> <ul> <ol> <li> <dl> <dt> <dd><p><br>
  • Lines and paragraphs break automatically.

Plain text

  • No HTML tags allowed.
  • Web page addresses and e-mail addresses turn into links automatically.
  • Lines and paragraphs break automatically.

shout_filter

  • Allowed HTML tags: <a> <em> <strong> <cite> <blockquote> <code> <ul> <ol> <li> <dl> <dt> <dd>
  • Lines and paragraphs break automatically.
  • Web page addresses and e-mail addresses turn into links automatically.