1
I still find it hard to believe that Tuiasosopo would be in this situation if Hannahan was healthy. I don't really think Wak and Z saw him as option 1.
But it's all speculation.
Scorecard 1
Dr. D's mainframe calculates that its subscribers might tolerate one post like the following ... :- )
Score SSI's pre-camp roster preferences vis-a-vis the M's end-of-March decisions. Let's start with the four benchies: Tuiasosopo, Sweeney, Byrnes, and Johnson. This was precisely SSI's four-man bench coming into camp:
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=== Matt Tuiasosopo ===
Coming into camp, outsiders viewed Tui as a longshot and only then if the M's had a 5-man bench.
Backup SS was definitely out of the question, and Josh Wilson was considered the only viable in-house UT after Hannahan.
In fact, national blogs, and all but one local corner (Shields and Churchill) had Tui wayyyyy outside the top 10 prospects even limiting it to the M's own farm system.
But! Wok and Jack had Tui at shortstop from day one of camp. Let us good-naturedly point out that this counted for very little with pundits...
..............
I know, I know, most amigos still aren't comfortable with Tui at short. But take heart: think about who has endorsed Tui's play at SS. No, not us. We're talking about The Men Who Can Do No Wrong. ;- )
The big advantage: a possible 400 AB's from the next homegrown All-Star.
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=== Mike Sweeney ===
This choice has acutely annoyed a lot of pundits, even after the Jimmy Foxx-like spring training.
Before spring training, SSI argued that Sweeney should be strongly considered for the 25-man, and on March 6th argued that he should be on the team.
The M's are making the right call here, IMHO. Sweeney is probably the Mariners' best hitter, after Ichiro and Figgins. And he can play first base, especially slimmed-down.
The big advantage: a targeted 120 OPS+ from a benchie, for a club that sorely needs the help -- and the >Pythag chemistry.
Check it out, bro's: this is a duct-tape-and-baling-wire offense. The performance of the platoon* bats could make or break the season. Every time a benchie drives in a go-ahead run, that is the extra inch this club can't live without.
Still an interesting question: whether Sweeney is going to be able to play first base (say) 30-40 games, if and when Kotchman fails to hit. Remember Lookout Landing pointing out that Casey Kotchman had 1 hit per 60 lefty breaking balls last year...
.........
You good amigos who have cheered every pro-defense move the M's have made... now eat your Very Thin Mint. ;- ) Garko whuffed on a knee-high throw from Tui, about the first week, and never got back onto the M's radar. Live by the sword, die by the sword, homies.
Sweeney is, fortunately, a Mariner. That's 2-for-2 and eight total bases, is it not :- )
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=== Eric Byrnes ===
Everybody liked Byrnsie. We won't count this one, except to say that SSI has always been less impressed with Ryan Langerhans than anybody else. So we were down with replacing Langerhans from long before the decision to do so.
A BB on the scorecard, perhaps?
The big advantage: Byrnes can help this club's offense a lot more than could Langerhans. Wok is wavering a bit on his platooning strategies, but Byrnes is a clear LHP-masher who will help on that score.
Comments
2
Wakamatsu was very impressed with Tuiasosopo LAST year, and so far he hasn't done a thing to hurt himself. I've got a hunch that Hannahan was resigned as insurance and nothing more.
Give Tui a chance, and some good metered out at bats, and the kid is going to shine!
Lonnie
3
A little tip o' the cap at yourself is most surely in order, Doc, considering you do so rarely, and with much grace. You go to the plate prognosticating like Branyan, looking for 500' moon shots. So what if occasionally the front row gets their hats blown off from a swing and miss? : )
W/R/T Tui, you've been on pretty lonely island in blog land on him. Particularly I don't get the defensive concerns, what I've seen of him is very smooth and strong. His bat could never come around, but his stats to me shop breakout potential in the bigs. 90 points of patience, career in the minors, ain't nothing to sneeze at, and his frame & athletic ability hints at good things to come.
On Byrnes, I was hoping he wouldn't make the team, but I liked him better after seeing him play for a game in ST. He seems to have an intelligent and attack-oriented approach. As a heady and scrappy benchie who won't be too embarrassing at the plate, we could do worse.
4
The one thing about Byrnes that I like, is that this particular team needs hitters with the wide platoon splits... he could easily SLG .500 against LHP's...
On Tui, ya, he has faced a huge amount of skepticism. SSI is not above beating its foes with the Z/Wok foam rubber bat about it, either :- )
5
It *could* easily be the case that if Hannahan had stayed healthy, that Tui wouldn't have been Z & Wok's first choice, as he was SSI's.
Even if true, would make Tui the #26 roster guy, tho ... as opposed to the M's #26 prospect :- )
6
It didn't seem to gain much traction, the fact that Tuiasosopo was on the 25-man out of ST in 2009. He is several miles on, compared to then.
I wonder why Zduriencik's and Wakamatsu's evaluation of Tui has gained so little traction?
7
Honestly, not "overly" suprised. I never really did a projection of what the bench would be - but somewhere along the line I think I noted Tui as a backup SS could make a lot of sense, (given the Jack Wilson health care discount).
Sweeney is the only real surprise here - (not because I don't like Sweeney) - but because we're back to the two-gimp DH reality again - (I'm only a hair more comfortable with Sweeney playing defense than Griffey). While platooning may be common - you can kiss the pinch-hit goodbye. If you're looking at having NOBODY on the bench to play defense if you use a pinch-hitter - then you don't use the pinch-hitter. It's the standard 2-catcher problem. You don't "voluntarily" play both catchers in the same game -- EVER.
I can only hope that I'm wrong about Sweeney - and that the back that would not let him play decently for 5 years has recovered. IBIWISI.
But, definite kudos for a projection well done.
8
n/m
9
Is why it was supposedly tough for the M's to take Sweeney over Garko, considering Hannahan's injury, those being the two emergency catchers.
Johnson is of course fragile right now, so the situation there is a bit dicey. Could be a strong clue that Garko's coming back up ASAP ... edit that, if he clears waivers.
10
I feel like I keep doing this, but...
In fact, national blogs, and all but one local corner (Shields and Churchill) had Tui wayyyyy outside the top 10 prospects even limiting it to the M's own farm system.
isn't exactly accurate. The Mariners Annual put out by Maple Street Press, which I did the top 10 prospects for, had Tui in the top ten. The Fangraphs folks also put him in the top ten, in part due to prompting from Cameron. We might have some differing views about the endgame for him, but that he's one of the top ten prospects in the system is not all that disputed.
11
Tui was not kept to "be" a SS, but he will play SS because he demonstrated he isn't a stiff over there and because he is a 6 position player who has a huge upside with the bat who has NOT shown the "Dr. Strangeglove" ability he was reputed to have in the field.
I told you he was a lock.
He's a major league talent, ergo, he's a major leaguer.
I was rooting for Garko...because I think Kotchman doen't have it. But Garko surely failed to play his way onto the team and Sweeney, a presence that is valuable in the Milton Bradley world, certainly did.
Byrnes showed his stuff.....although I have a soft spot for Corey Patterson.
SSI was way ahead of the curve on Tex. He has been a wonderful find and seems to have a terrifically multi-role terrific arm.
But let's be clear...the Mariners can not be outscored by 52 runs again this year (They exceeded their Pythagorean W-L last year by TEN games). Over the course of several years things like that regress to the norm. I think James pointed that out a long time ago. Yes, their staff promisses to be some better (But remember how terrific Washburn was last year during his Mariner time. That's basically what we would hope Lee is, perhaps a bit better. And Felix may well pitch just like last year and not get the same out of it)
The Mariners MUST score more runs....let's be clear. Tui and Sweeney have the upside to make that happen. We could pitch AND field like last year.....but if we are minus 52 runs we may well be 15 games BELOW .500.
A run saved is the equivalent of a run scored...but the Mariners "saved" a ton of runs last year and still completely outperformed expectations, despite a huge negative run difference. You can't count on that two years in a row. They were the best team at run prevention (staff and fielding) in the league by FORTY runs. Improving on that will be difficult. Basically they COULD improve on that (if all other teams remain stagnant) by 52 runs and still be a Pythgorean .500 team if they don't score more runs. They must score runs. WAR is nice but they must score more runs.
Figgins is a sure improvement over Beltre in the runs department. Lots better. Kotchman is not an improvement over Branyan with the bat...and he better be terrific with the glove as Branyan AND Lopez AND Carp were all puls UZR's last year. Rooting for Lopez to duplicate last years with the bat is a fair thing...maybe even improve a bit. Guti might or might not show significant batting improvement (I think he will improve some). Ichiro will give approximately the same performance. Wilson isn't transforming into Jeter. So guys like Tui and Sweeney and Moore and Johnson and Byrnes need to produce runs. Bradley is, of course, the guy who either gives a HUGE lift or a destructive presense. Lay your bets down now.
I think I like this lineup a bit. I know I like it a bunch more with Tui getting 400 ABs.
Go team.
12
In your case Jay, I don't ever remember you deriding Tui at any time. We're not talkin' about you, you know that.
Don't doubt that Maestro Yencich had Tui in his top 10 not only this winter, but perhaps even last.
......................
But a lot of other Seattle people now turn out to have liked Tui a lot better than I remember them liking him at the time. Lo and behold, USSM itself ('nobody who ever struggled in this way ever contributed in the majors') might deserve kudos for knowing who Tui would be?
Not wishing to be snide, it seems this happens a lot ... D-O-V takes three long years of flak on a guy and then boom, the day arrives when everybody called him! :- )
Can there be much doubt that Erik Bedard will be next up as a consensus get ... all's well that ends well, I guess...
13
As long Sweeney can play a competent 1B, I like him as part of the team.
I don't like it if hes a DH only though.. It pushes Kotchman into a full-time role, and drops either Byrnes or Bradley on days against LHPs. Both events make the team worse.
Sweeney taking time away from Kotchman vs lefties is likely a good thing. Depending on how healthy Sweeney really is, he might even be the better option vs righties.
14
I still see Tui as Mike Morse, m'man - don't worry, I'll still let myself be known as a doubter as to his future, inevitable All-Star nature. :)
I'm fine with him making the club as a utility guy. Here's hoping he learns some things from our pro batting coach that he wasn't picking up in the minors, and he reaches that potential you see in him.
I'd love another infielder who can get on base and crack some long line-drives on occasion. Fingers crossed.
Getting Ackley some running mates who can do more than pepper 3-hoppers to short (*cough*Kotchman*cough*) is a priority I'm keenly focused on.
~G
15
And the jury is definitely not in, re: mr. Tui.
But should I take heart that now everybody used to be a believer? :- ) (no offense J.) You've got a big chance to be out in front of the curve here G as a Tui skeptic.....
16
Why couldn't Mike Sweeney play 1B twice a week?
17
No reason at all.
Whether he can play 1B as a full-time rep for the Hoover Vaccuum Co the way the Ms want it played is another matter, but if Kotchman's running a 75 OPS+ or something like he did in Atlanta, then that has to be taken into consideration. How precious are you gonna get about his glove skills if Sweeney is still pounding the stuffing out of the ball and lookin 29 and hungry at the plate?
You get Sweeney in. It's not a question. He can catch tosses to first from the other infielders just fine. He's played 500+ pro games at first - he hasn't forgotten which end of the glove to use.
~G
18
Morse has a 106 OPS+ in 300ish limited pro ABs, ya know. He's not abominable. He just can't quite crack a regular lineup, has no defined position, and his minor league mediocrity hasn't encouraged anyone to give him a chance in a full-time lineup.
I can see Tui wandering down that path, especially if the Ms have Chone for the next 4, Ackley locking down 2nd, and they find a SS either in house (Franklin, Noriega) or outsourced.
So let's hope he takes advantage of this chance, since there's no way Wilson makes it through 162 games in full health and we may trade Lopez sometime in the year.
I dunno how much more patient with him the Ms will be able to be if he's not a quick learner this year. He might get stuck as a utility guy. Though there are worse fates...
~G
19
Let's say that Sweeney is hitting for a 120 OPS+ in targeted AB's -- he hit 131 in the 2H last year --
And that Kotch is ripping along with his usual 90 OPS+ and with sweet defense.
How do you divide up the PT in May?
20
Ground ball pitchers will eat Kotchman alive...flyball guys he'll get on top of their high stuff well and hit line drives and the occasional dinger. If I were in charge...Kotchman gets half the PT but it's based on groundball/flyball...and Sweeney gets the rest.
21
Just start him against guys who pitch up in the zone.
...............
The TV game Sunday, the count was like 1-1 and the pitcher looped a little curve ball down and in for a called strike... then on 1-2, another easy curve low-in and he missed it by a foot.
Sure hope the M's know what they're doin', LOL...
22
But I thought the consensus on Tui's making the team last year was that it was a reward for a good spring, especially considering that he couldn't play in the field and, as it was proven shortly thereafter, that he couldn't hit either due to the bum elbow.
It was just for a handful of days until Ichiro was back, and while there could have been a better choice, it really didn't matter in the end.
23
MIlton Bradley's birthday is April 15. Maybe he'll get a first baseman's mitt?
24
Sweeney *HAS* attempted to play 1B once a week. When?
2003 -- 108 games - 45 at 1B - .858
2004 -- 106 games - 55 at 1B - .851
2005 -- 122 games - 49 at 1B - .864
2006 -- 60 games - all 60 DH -- .787
2007 -- 74 games - 6 at 1B --- .719
2008 -- 42 games - 13 at 1B -- .728
2009 -- 74 games - 5 at 1B --- .777
From '03 to '05 Sweeney was not benched for lack of performance. He was hurt - constantly. Even in 2009, he played 4 of his 5 games at 1B during April - and was HURT in April. He didn't play 1B after May 25th (on May 25th, his OPS was .642).
Choice: Sweeney hitting .800 as a pure DH for 70+ games -- or Sweeney hitting .700 for 60- games while playing 1B once a week?
Why is it that I seem to be the only guy on the planet that seems to get the fact that with each year older we get we become *LESS* likely to withstand the daily grind of playing pro sports? Prior to 2009, the mantra was "Of course Griffey can play LF once or twice a week -- no negative impact on his body whatsoever!" Well, he played a grand total of 11 games in the OF last year (mostly in NL parks), and the general quotes I remember afterword were along the lines that his knees were barking mad at him for the effort.
How long does it take the human body to repair the 'normal' damage from strenuous physical activity? In your 20s, 8-16 hours. In your 30s, that number climbs. And here's the rub ... as soon as that clock reaches 22 -- you have LOST the ability to play two days in a row, because you're starting to pile on damage that the body cannot repair.
Why did Beltre stink in 2009? Because he played hurt pretty much for the entire season. He didn't get the TIME he needed for his body to FULLY heal until he was finally DLed. I believe, Sweeney - given the state of his back - plus his age -- might take MULTIPLE days to recover from a single full game of playing 1B. So, those next 2-3 days of DHing, he'll be swinging with a compromised back, and the odds of him worsening the situation rise drastically. If you want to play him at 1B one day a week - AND give him 4-5 days before he plays again? (well, BP might screw that approach, too).
25
I like him better than Morse on the whole and think he's a better player in all aspects of the game, but at this point the only thing I'm really comfortable saying is that he has a major league career ahead of him and is a valuable commodity. Whether that's as a Morse type of bat first utility player or if he ends up starting at third for the M's for the next ten years, I don't know yet. Given that his power explosion last year was accompanied by no small increase in Ks, I'd say it could still go either way.
26
Platooning gets immediately limited sadly to right vs left, etc. Great way to take advantage of having Sweeney and not reserving him to the 8th or 9th inning. Easier than asking Kotchman to stand in front of the box.
27
Maybe the back would start bothering him, even at 1-2 games a week.
Have to watch that. Agreed.
28
Not meaning to quibble, we do see this one from different angles. My response would be:
1. Consensus from whom? Did Wakamatsu and Zduriencik indicate that they didn't believe that Tuiasosopo could play, but that they wanted to reward him?
Or did USSM etc rationalize Tui's selection and that was the 'consensus'?
...................
2. Proportion. Granting the premise for the sake of argument: what other lousy minor leaguers has Zduriencik put on the Opening Day 25-man as an 'attaboy'?
Even Saunders, Carp, etc didn't get that attaboy this year, did they?
This is the second year in a row that Tui has made the 25-man cut as an 'attaboy'? If that were true, wouldn't it make him an org Anointed, anyway?
...................
2a. Proportion. Supposing that Tui is (say) their #30 roster player, how does that compare to Tui's general rep (around the nation) as a non-top-20 prospect?
...................
3. Baker reports, FYI, that he has talked to Zduriencik about Tui personally and that Jack believes that Tui has 'it.'
Baker has talked about this on Baker Live! several times, a la 'get used to it, guys. Jack Zduriencik thinks Matt Tuiasosopo has what it takes.' This is based on Baker's access to Zduriencik.
....................
An interesting debate. I personally suspect that the 'consensus' on Tui is cognitive dissonance, but I could be wrong.
29
:ya just say bingo:
1. Morse is a great analogue for Tui's reasonable downside.
2. Of course, I agree that it could go either way. (Same is true of Ackley, Saunders, Pineda etc.)
3. Fact still remains that I see Tui as a blue-chip Grade A prospect, with a 30% chance of becoming an impact player. If you guys do not, that makes a ballgame. :- )
SSI hasn't been slow to credit the Notorious G.J.Fro with wins and we trust that in 2013, when Tui jacks 38, you guys won't hesitate to return the fava!
30
Does nobody think he would've doing so when he was 31?
What boggles MY mind is *I* happened to be the geezer-crazy drafter in my fantasy days. I *LOVED* dumpster diving for the post-collapse mid-30s guys that were falling to the 18th round. I made out with reclamations routinely. But, I understood one simple reality -- older *IS* older. Older guys MISS GAMES. They get hurt often -- and they recover slowly.
But, I made out because I looked for *ONE YEAR* collapses. The codger plays hurt all year, because his body can't repair - and he has a Beltre '09. BUT - then he gets 5 months off -- comes back - and BECAUSE of the collapse, the teams typically get a little more cautious - and BANG! you've got an All Star again -- (but only playing 75% of games instead of 90+).
Sweeney has proven for five years that his body does NOT repair quickly. His body couldn't handle half-time DH/1B play when he was five years younger. The chance he's gonna handle it better today is absolute, stone cold zero.
NFLers play once a week. NBA - 3 games. MLB plays 6 games a week with routine 10-12 game stretches with NO days off. MLB isn't a "rough" game -- but at the major league level, you MUST go from 0 to 100 instantly in almost every aspect of the game. Every flyball is a sprinters gun - (except no blocks to run out of).
There is a REASON that even the sturdiest of players sit for 5% of the season. And the past 15 years have been an era where large numbers of guys were getting around that nightly muscle repair limit through better chemistry.
Lots of physical improvement regimens recommend every-other-day workouts for the very purpose of allowing the musculature to repair itself.
Personally, I think Sweeney could potentially pure DH 120 games a year - paying close attention to even the smallest sign of injury or fatigue. The absolute WORST approach, given his proven track record of fragility would be to EVER ask him to "play through" his pain. Oddly enough, I don't think it's actually the batting that screws him up -- I think it's the being on his feet for long periods that his body cannot handle - and THEN bat swinging does damage.
Honestly, I'd have no problem with Sweeney as a pure DH ... I view the problem half of the DH situation as Griffey. While I hope I am wrong, I'm still thinking Griffey is going to be fighting a losing battle against the Mendoza line this year - and if things go badly, he has the potential to battle for team worst OPS.
It's not Sweeney that's the problem - it's having TWO guys that cannot play D anywhere that pretty much destroys the whole concept of a pinch-hit.
But I'd love to be wrong on this one.
31
If we had a homegrown corner infielder hitting 30+ jacks for us, I would be stoked.
32
This year and last year are very different, though. There is a clear role for Tui this time around and he is very clearly better than the (healthy) competition. Last year, his inclusion didn't make much sense and it was pretty clear that it was just to fill out the roster until Ichiro was back a few days later. I can't imagine why they wouldn't know he couldn't play in the field. As I recall we knew about the elbow before he was sent down.
It's hard to come up with any reason for Tui's inclusion last year other than an atta boy. He hadn't played any SS for a couple years, hadn't yet played 2B or outfield, couldn't be used as a pinch runner, and wasn't going to steal reps from Beltre. He was a pinch hitter that wasn't even used in that role in his short stint.
But if anything that reward probably furthers your point about him having the Wak and Z seal of approval.
I'm not arguing that Tui isn't in the organizations plans or anything like that, but I do think Hannahan was "the guy" for that spot (and still probably is once he's healthy, unless Tui takes it and runs with it), and that last year wasn't much more than "We don't have anyone better, hey, Tui had a nice spring."
33
:daps:
34
Pretty much. If Griffey were a cheerleader instead of a player, Sweeney would make a lot more sense.
If Sweeney can't play in the field (even 2-3 times a week) then I'm not really a fan of this move.