Independent

<p>Sanders won MI because only his ardent supporters came out to vote #Democrat. Neither candidate is all that appealing to many #Democrats...they both have significant issues. So across the country, #Republican turnout is up 40% and #Democrat turnout is down like 20%. That implies that a lot of rare voters are voting in the GOP primaries for or against Trump, but a lot of #Democrats are also voting in the GOP primaries, for or against Trump.

<p>(right down to the mechanics that made him so vulnerable to injury that they were paired back to a simpler motion...the power fastball...the total lack of effective secondary pitches, and the tendency to underperform his defense #Independent projections.</p>

<p>Also note - I am of the opinion that park factors should be additive, not multiplicative...that a hitter's park adds X number of runs per game per side - it does not multiply the scoring by some percentage larger than 100...so the alternative to context-adjusting the probabilities of various events is to context-adjust the Elo rating itself by adding a +/- Z to the event winning percentages (the step right before you find the Elo change score...the W% is leverage and match-up #Independent...if I did this to the Elo ratings or the change scores for each play, I'd be calcul