Nearly three decades ago, in his Baseball Abstract, Bill James essentially argued that winning one run games was (over the course of a season) a factor of luck. I don't know if he's changed that idea in terms of the new "Bullpen Paradigm," but I haven't seen it retracted.
I looked back on the last five World Series winners and they were something like 92-85, combined, in one-run games.
The M's are 16-8. Now it might be that we continue that hot-fortunate pace, but it might not. I mention this not to try to jinx the M's, but to offer a reminder that if we lose three or four consectutive one-run games it doesn't change the nature of the team, but represents a simple norming of outcome.
Worth watching about Nelson Cruz: He's OPS-ing .725 and +-ing 100, not Nellie-type numbers at all. Over the past 28 days it is .164-.307-.247 and .138-.219-.241 over the last 14. I'm pretty willing to bet he's never had a (much) worse slump. Interested, I took a deeper look. He's hitting LHP decently this season (.822, career .924) in 45 PA's. But his .689 vR is way off the Boomstick norm (.833). Looking at his vR specifically, I find that his K/PA is 21.1%. That's even better than the 22.1, 24.3, 26.5 % he's run vR going back 4 seasons. He K's less vs. RHP than he used to. But this season both his BB/PA nd vR Slg% are way down. The first is at 3.3% this season, after three seasons of 7.4, 8.4 & 7.8. His vR Slg% has fallen to .420, after .586, .513, .524.
I know it is only 123 PA, a small sample, but it is worth watching if RHPs challenge Nelson more and he hurts them less. He's certainly been hobbled, that is true, but age eventually catches up to all of us. Is this his season?