Mariners 5 ...
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... couple of posts up within the hour. ;- ) April Fool's Belated, Dept.
In the meantime (1) please note the requests for invites to slack chat in the Felix thread, and (2) if a few users threw potatoes into the hobo pot -- one sentence regarding your own fave takeaway from the Cleveland series, I'd be thrilled to find the potatoes by the time I'm done. :- )
Make the Mariners great again ...
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Q. Pretty good series, eh?
A. That is the first time I recall, since the Piniella Mariners,* that a Mariner squad played like that against a great team. They stood toe-to-toe against Apollo in the center of the ring and swapped punches without a single step-back in three days.
The intimidation factor, even against Kluber, was zero. Their defense was precise, their AB's showed the right blend of patience against ambition, the pitching was intelligent, just amazing from first pitch to last.
In particular, Dr. D enjoyed ticking off every pitch on Bauer's pitch count. Here you have a devilish tricky SP with a full bag of pitches and tricks, throwing the kitchen sink at the M's, and they ran him out of town after 5 IP and a bunch of traffic on the bases.
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Q. That seems a bit hyperbolic.
A. Here are the slash lines for the series:
CLEVELAND - 18 hits, 24 K, 9 BB, 3 HR
SEATTLE - 19 hits, 24 K, 6 BB, 4 HR
And that is with (1) Kluber on fire, (2) Paxton having an off game, and (3) injuries to Boom and Zuum.
So, half our squad out and the Indians playing great. The M's just played greater. Like we sez, best series since Lou, in terms of battle worthiness. I think I'm going to cry.
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Q. What is Mitch Haniger's top end?
A. Well, far be it from Dr. D to remind you about his ever-so-early Best Bet here, is 'cause every Denizen is smart enough to love Mitch Haniger. I think Matt just said something like "upgrade from Babe Ruth to Sydd Finch" or somesuch.
Haniger's top end ... add this series to 2016 and his lifetime (in the AL) is .289/.362/.512. And that has been running with a parachute, since the oblique last year had him out of rhythm half the time. He had two month-long runs of .350/.400/.600 where he looked every inch like he deserved it, though with .400 BABIP's I 'spose he didn't. He played like that, really, any time he wasn't injured or recovering from such.
Amputate those .350/.400/.600 lines back for BABIP and he's still .300+ with nice walks and 35 homers. So he is bracketed by .289/.362/.512 and .310/.380/.550. Joey Votto less a couple of walks, playing a great right field.
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Q. Amigos were arguing the best M's trade. Gordon or Haniger/Segura?
A. Both were creative genius if you ask me. That's not to say there haven't been five lousy trades you could stack against them. But those two were really inventive and M's fans are reaping the benefits.
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Q. Speaking of Gordon, is he going to hit for more power?
A. Malcontent noticed his improved hip turn late in 2017. For sure we caught him doing that in the Cleveland series, very often getting the hip WAY out in front.
I don't know whether Andrew (Mal) is right about this or not, but he's been crushing it on SSI this year so would be slow to doubt him. My own suspicion had been that if Gordon got ambitious, he would need to -- this being a prime computation only -- need to dial it back to baseline again after long-term failure. But Andrew pointed out Gordon's .340 AVG with a .455 SLG in Sept. 2017 -- .340 with 3 doubles, 4 triples, and a homer. That equates to a good 40-45 gappers per season.
Defensively he has been the top end of what Dr. D had hoped he'd be -- a blazing-fast guy, taking super weird routes, and getting the job done. Very early here, he is 0.0 defensively per UZR and is -1 plays per Dewan, so he has 159 games to make up the play lost in the first three games. From here I'll bet he is +10 or +15 plays up on the average CF this year.
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Q. Ichiro off to a slow start at 2-for-9?
A. Perhaps, but I thought he looked pretty good in the box, reacting well to hot fastballs. Throw 96 to Ichiro and he still sees the pitch, no cheating, and flicks the bat out in plenty of time. Visually LOOKED to me like 95% of Prime Ichiro, though of course he isn't. It hurts him a ton that he is 4 steps slower down the line, and gets no infield hits.
I do have to admit that he fished several times -- garbage swings at back foot sliders mostly. Hard to say which way I'd bet, if the Q were a good contribution in 2018. Maybe 60-40 against.
Servais is subbing him out for Heredia late .... I guess that means Ichi is gone when the 5SP gets here. Unless they go to 7 RP's and 5 OF's. Ichiro may be in a position similar to Vogelbach's, having to hit a ton in the first three weeks.
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Q. Speaking of Vogelbach, does his slow start prove he is a AAAA player?
A. Of course not. EVERY person, short of Mike Trout, has trouble with the non-permeable AAA/MLB membrane. And here, 'Bach is pressed by the fact that he knows his boss is super skeptical.
'Bach's AB's showed the same Boggs-level EYE at the plate (except for one or two "pressers".) His O-Swing%, that is his fish rate, is running behind only Mitch Haniger's. And remember it is 300-400 PA's before we can put stock in any of it.
But he has what, 15-20 PA's to shoulder-push Servais and he's now down 5 of those.
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Q. Sprained ankle is better than an oblique for Boomstick?
A. He had two thundering blasts into the cheap seats, and those weren't his hardest-hit balls. He had another one with RISP that tore Lindor's glove off. This guy is good to go for 2018 and that's good news, wouldncha say? That our 40-homer cleanup guy is still not going to age out this year?
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Q. Freitas or Marjama?
A. We were talking during the game, why does Freitas look so light-years better with the pitch sequences? And somebody brought poor Dr. D up to speed, that Marjama is a SS conversion. :: Ah. Slaps forehead ::
So for me, Freitas is the first string C. It is night-and-day watching the two catch. Perhaps Freitas would have been able to calm Paxton down in the 1st? And then we'd have SWEPT them.
When Zuumball went down and Dr. D realized our two AAA catchers had 4 major league games between them, he truly feared a long string of catastrophes. Freitas is apparently going to put the kibosh to that nightmare. And Dr. D is confident that Servais, as an ex-catcher, will be able to make the right call ;- ) here.
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Q. Ryon Healy 0 times on base? Is he a loser?
A. He's way out of sync right now. His swing % is 38%, meaning he's got the bat glued to his shoulder, and when he does swing it's been several times at a slider 3 feet off the plate. Yuck.
But he's still Ryon Healy. How long it will take him for the light bulb to come back on, who knows.
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Q. So the M's have their Piniella back on. WHY does Dr. D think this is?
A. No earthly idea. Maybe "chemistry" is no more than getting the right players, Haniger and Boomstick and Gordon and Leake and Cano and Segura to be specific. Maybe baseball really is just a set of 1-on-1 matchups .. and the more players you get, who offer you Lou Piniella focus when the heat's on, the more you look like a winner.
Maybe.
Enjoy,
Dr D