Lynn, Cobb, Arrieta and other unemployed baseball players
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Seven of the top 20 free agents this winter are unsigned as we get deeper into spring training. Here's an excellent primer from MLB Trade Rumors, including polls as to which of the top 5 players are most likely to be looking for teams at season opener:
Greg Holland - 32%
Mike Moustakas - 30%
Jake Arrieta - 24%
Lance Lynn - 7%
Alex Cobb - 6%
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Matty has been shouting from the rooftops that the M's need to grab Lynn or Cobb. They seem to have already received offers in the 3 x $14MM range. Per MLB Trade Rumors, most teams would prefer the pitchers come down off those stances a little bit.
Lance Lynn has a tasty 114 career ERA+ including 124 last year, though his xFIP (4.82) was miles higher than his ERA (3.43). BaseballHQ sez not to undersell Lynn's "HR-suffocating" sinker and his history of beating his xFIP in real time.
BaseballHQ is less optimistic about Alex Cobb; they appreciate his GB% and his CTL (his K:BB ratio, which is the best indicator of how well a pitcher uses whatever stuff he was gifted with) but without strikeouts returning to 8+ levels "he's two legs of a tripod." Cobb has a career 111 ERA+ including 113 last year.j
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BJOL has Jake Arrieta as the #9 pitcher in the game (?!) and of course James emphasizes long stretch runs for pitchers; his system weights Arrieta's track record of brilliance and expects excellence going forward. Apparently this is what is most typical the last 100 years, which, you know James mows his lawn thinking "row 17, file 15; that's Joe Shlabotnik, 1922. He was 17-15 with a 2.97 ERA." I believe this would be plenty to get hired in any rational job interview, but we digress.... the point is, James has a hard BUY on Mr. Arrieta and his wife's Seattle twitter photos.
Lynn he's got at #67, a few slots below Mike Leake at 55, and Cobb down at #84 where Jerad Eickhoff and Michael Fiers dwell.
Bear in mind that with Paxton-Felix-Leake set in stone, Erasmo and Marc-O are out of options and are acquisitions that Jerry Dipoto is very proud of. He is unpredictable, however, and a sudden announcement of an Arrieta signing (with Erasmo to the pen) would shock exactly no one. Dipoto's self-confidence is well past the "annoying" bar for SSI, and we imagine he assesses his current position as sound, As Is. No matter how fast the injuries pile up again, apparently.
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Pretty cool to watch spring training blossom into mid-mode with so many big-name players unsigned. Very shortly, some of these guys are going to sign knowing that they miss Opening Day getting themselves ready.
Enjoy,
Dr D