Has Dipoto Traded Away the Future?
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In Eric Longenhangen's piece on the M's top 14 prospects ... why 14, you might ask?! ... why not, said the barkeep; maybe that's all the 40's we got ... he's got all the M's prospects at the 40-45 "FV" level. Dr. D isn't too sure what "FV" means but he's pretty sure it would have something to do with estimated future value.
(PSA: Emilio Pagan was not in the M's top 30 last year, before being dealt for an HQ-35 starting major leaguer. Casual discussion is one thing, security-hedging against Hawaiian ICBM warning a different thing.)
On the other hand, he's got 33 prospects for the Yankees :- ) and 8 of them are above the vaunted 45 level.
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The juicy part is where Mr. Longerhangen neatly lays out a table of everyone Dipoto has traded away, "an entire system's worth of players" that Seattle developed who -- he emphasizes -- were of interest to other teams. This underlines the Mainframe's constant point that all 30 teams have dozens and dozens of players tradeable for the latest fad rumor.
Here's the table:
| Name | FV |
|---|---|
| Luiz Gohara | 55 |
| Tyler O’Neill | 50 |
| Nick Neidert | 45 |
| Alex Jackson | 45 |
| Freddy Peralta | 45 |
| Enyel De Los Santos | 45 |
| Carlos Vargas | 40+ |
| Alexander Campos | 40+ |
| Chris Torres | 40+ |
| Juan Then | 40+ |
| Drew Jackson | 40 |
| Brayan Hernandez | 40 |
| Juan De Paula | 40 |
| Ryan Yarbrough | 40 |
| Thyago Vieira | 40 |
| Brandon Miller | 40 |
| JP Sears | 40 |
| Pablo Lopez | 40 |
| Pedro Vasquez | 40 |
| Carlos Herrera | 40 |
| Erick Mejia | 40 |
| Luis Rengifo | HM |
| Jio Orozco | HM |
| Aneurys Zabala | HM |
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And Longerhangen, in the article's admirable spirit of even-handedness, clearly lays out what the Mariners got back for this:
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by Jerry Dipoto
| Name | FV |
|---|---|
| Dee Gordon | 60 |
| Yonder Alonso (CLE) | 50 |
| Ryon Healy | 50 |
| Mike Leake | 45 |
| Ben Gamel | 45 |
| David Phelps | 40 |
| Marcos Gonzalez | 40 |
| Max Povse | 40 |
| Nick Rumbelow | 40 |
| Drew Storen (via J. Benoit) | 40 |
| Adam Lind (FA) | 40 |
| Drew Smyly (CHC) | Depth |
| Rob Whalen | Depth |
| Chase De Jong | Depth |
| Mike Marjama | Depth |
| Ryan Garton | Depth |
| Joe Wieland (NPB) | |
| Arquimedes Caminero (NPB) |
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DR'S DIAGNOSIS
To call Mike Leake a "45" on this scale, where any .280-hitting AA scrub is a 40, seems a little odd. But, whatever. He also adds, reasonably,
That’s fine for now, and this list looks artificially short in part because Mitch Haniger (acquired with Jean Segura for Tai Walker and Ketel Marte), Guillermo Heredia (probably a platoon CF), and Andrew Moore (a No. 4/5 starter) graduated off the list.
Also not on there are the Miley-for-Miranda trade, the Drew Smyly trade which was nothing but a crying shame, the brilliant and impactful Edwin Diaz conversion, or the sweet-looking Erasmo-for-Cishek swap. The Jean Segura for Tai Walker trade is special category.
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DR'S PROGNOSIS
The Mariners have nine (9) starting players we are (a supermajority of us) happy with, and most of them with years' worth of club control. Quick, name another Mariners' team in anywhere near the same position, over the last 40 years.
Check me on that. It's more than 9, ain't it.
For whatever reason this ballclub certainly doesn't feel like a stripped-down car chassis on Jose Vidro blocks sitting forlornly by the side of a Mexican highway (Dr. D has been to such highways). It feels much more like Dipoto traded prospects that -- BEFORE THE FACT -- none of you mooks were selling as a flotilla of franchise saviors, by any stretch, admit it. ... and wound up with -- AFTER THE FACT -- a 25-man roster that, you've got to admit, feels quite dynamic. Well, at least that 1/25 of it behind the plate does. It's an E=MC2 that looks pretty reasonable from here.
It's a swing year for Jerry Dipoto. He's going to get a bunch of 28-homer years out of a bunch of guys like Mitch Haniger, or he is not. At the end of 2018 we'll see whether his operating strategy was innovative and effective, or whether it was not.
BABVA,
Dr D