Felix or Zeus on Opening Day?
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Brent Stecker has a roundtable on this. If you just joined us, the question is Felix' MLB(TM) entitlement vs. James Paxton's ability to defeat Corey Kluber in front of 45,000 fans and all the buzz of Opening Day. The roundtable went something like this:
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Mike Salk:
“It’s a hard one for me, because if I were (Mariners manager) Scott Servais I would be really, really tempted to go with James Paxton. He’s the future, he’s your guy, he’s supposed to be growing into being your horse, and it would send a message to Felix Hernandez that you don’t get to run this organization anymore. Things have changed.
I just don’t think that’s how you manage a baseball team. I think Felix has pitched in this organization and made sacrifices for this organization since 2005. If you do want to succeed this year, you can’t lose Felix Hernandez. And I think if you don’t start him for Opening Day and you embarrass him (by doing) what they did in 2008 when Erik Bedard started (Opening Day) – that team lost 100 games and it was torpedoed from the inside out. I can’t do it.”
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Dr. D is juuuuuuust a tad confused here. If you are clear about what Salk just said there, please feel free to enlighten us in the CMS.
First of all, most of us are 40-something sports fans, if not more, and we're well aware that a modern sports star can and has ---- > developed a far bigger grudge over much less than this, and has --- > ignited a clubhouse revolt over just such a thing. In fact, as we speak, John and I are deriving most of our sports amusement from watching Cleveland Cavaliers games. If you don't know the story there, you probably don't want to. Suffice it to say when a team's superstar feels disrespected, that team is liable to see some very bizarre things happen during that season.
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Anyway, Brock Huard sez:
“To me it’s a proactive deal and it’s TBD. My starter for game No. 1 against Corey Kluber right now is TBD. That’s not an insult and I’m sorry, but after the last two seasons, unfortunately they have been injury-riddled for (Hernandez). I would love to see James Paxton earn that opportunity to do it, (but) this is Felix’s job to lose.”
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Meaning, Felix IS entitled, but March could shake out in such a way that it's obvious to all 25 men what needs to happen. It COULD shake out that way. That's Huard's perspective from behind the clipboard.
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Danny O'Neil sez --- > what Salk sez, the 2nd time I think (?!) and Jim Moore sez --- > Felix is eligible for "disrespect" because he has not been that good an actor lately.
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DR's R/X
All intriguing. The first thing that occurs to Dr. D is a team chess match: when it's my 5 against your 5, it is considered a huge advantage, and CHEATING, to play your #1 guy down on the #2 board.
This happened in the 1970 USSR vs World Match, when Bent Larsen talked himself onto first board and then Fischer, from the 2nd board, smashed Tigran Petrosian by a 75% score. Let me play my best guy at #2 and I'll do it every time. Not quite sure why the math works out that way, but it does...
So if the Mariners "do it the right way" and send Servais to Felix, "Listen, Felix, we've had some good starts from James and ...." but Felix sticks out his jaw and goes, "No, man, I got this!" then that's fine with GM Detecto.
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FELIX' 2018
Tough to find a template to really compare the man to. If he could hit his spots he'd be a right-handed Jamie Moyer. But since his slowball is also a wildball, we're left with hoping he reports to camp tanned, rested, and refreshed... that he throws 55-60% secondary pitches and that the rest are caught by a blurry-fast outfield.
It could happen. He only had what, 86 innings last year and no WBC this year. He'll bounce back; by how much, you figure it out.
BABVA,
Dr D