It's Getting LATE
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This article characterizes the MLB free agents as "in a rage" and one agent's solution is to boycott spring training.
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DR'S DIAGNOSIS, Dept.
98% of what we hear in November and December is "noise," but in this case there are two tectonic-sized principles colliding to produce a real supercollision of forces - unstoppable object crashes into immovable mass. Those principles being:
(1) Teams like the Dodgers and Yankees have decided, because of the luxury tax among other things like just being tired of CC Sabathia situations, not to ladle out $200M bowlfuls of soup from behind the cafeteria sneeze plate.
(2) Some critical number of teams has come to agree with Jerry Dipoto that big contracts are a sucker's bet.
Like we said three paragraphs ago, this would have been "noise" last year, or the year before. It turns out this time, it isn't noise. That's Un-Fake News you can print out and thumbtack to the wall right now, while we wait.
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FANGRAPHS
Jeff Sullivan has an intelligent opinion as to whose fault this is: nobody's. We are not talking collusion here: we're talking the collision of forces.
| 9:59 |
Jonathan: IF MLBPA wants to change the system, that’s fine. But at present there is zero reason to overpay free agents for their declining years of production. I’m as pro-player as they come, but this is not collusion at work, it’s intelligence in how to properly allocate resources. Why is this so hard to understand and why must people yell collusion just because teams are making decisions to play within the rules that have been set up? … The Yankees and Dodgers (and others) have significant reasons and incentive to be below luxury tax this season. So they are. And other teams don’t need to spend big dollars on players that will only minimally improve their teams and will be a drain on their teams’ payrolls in future years. |
| 9:59 |
Jeff Sullivan: Yeah |
| 10:00 |
Jeff Sullivan: This isn’t collusion. This is teams being smart enough to react to the circumstances. It’s a huge, huge deal that certain big spenders are trying to stay under the tax. Now, whether they actually need to do that — that could be argued. But that’s the operating philosophy, and it’s having an effect. And then you have potential big spenders at the other end, with bad present rosters. What’s their incentive to, say, sign Jake Arrieta? What would he do for the Tigers? |
| 10:01 |
Jeff Sullivan: Free agency has always been a bad investment, efficiency-wise. Money needs to find a way to get to players before they get to FA age. It’s more urgent now than ever |
| 10:01 |
Jeff Sullivan: And, of course, beneath all of this, money really needs to find a way to get to the minor leagues |
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People, especially experts, just aren't good at reacting to dynamically-changing environments. Look at the way the GOP and the Democrats hold their breaths until they turn blue, and then scream demands at each other. Player agents and GM's aren't any better.
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TACTICAL SCAN 101
All this would mean what for the Mariners?
1) According to Sullivan, it would take revenue sharing in order to get more $$$ to Oakland's club-controls players. Jerry Dipoto, by contrast, can hoard all the 1-6 year players he wants. The way he is going about that, it could become a real tactical advantage, a difference-making factor when it comes to that extra $4M player.
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2) If the world comes around to thinking Dipoto's way -- or more Dipoto's way -- it is to MY advantage :- ) because the M's won't get frozen out of the FA market.
On Jake Arrieta, the word is the market laughed him out of the room on his 7 x $25M open. One interpretation is that any team to give him nice money ($24M, $25M) at SIX years could snag him.
On the other hand, are we really down to $22.5M per season, and a 5-year deal? Perhaps that is where Jerry Dipoto is holding the line, 5 years for this guy?
Interesting offseason. Really looking forward to the Denizens taking this hobo stew and making something out of it :- )
BABVA,
Dr D