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Dipoto's Trade Volume

you got to give a little...taaaake a little... and let your poor heart breaaak a little

.

In the BJOL series on Organizations and Eras, James seems to list four ways to acquire talent that comprise about 80%, 90% of the route to acquiring talent and contending:

  • Trades.
  • Picking up scrubs and players other teams have rejected.
  • The minor leagues.
  • Free agency.

For some reason, most baseball fans consider #3 the "pure" way to add talent, the "right" way.  Dr. Detecto has absolutely no bias towards this method.  I mean, he'd rather have Houston's farm system than ours -- but then again, he'd rather have Pat Gillick's eye for a journeyman MLB player than Woody Woodward's.  And which, really, is based more on skill and less on luck?  The evaluations that Gillick and Epstein make with 3rd-year MLB players, or the guessing that 30 draft war rooms do in the 4th round of an ammy draft?

:: shrug :: 

Every Denizen will have his opinion here.  The point is, JERRY DIPOTO's opinion is that he is far, far better at making trades than are the other GM's.  Proof:  see the graph above, from Jeff Sullivan's Jan. 17 Fangraphs piece.  Between Oct. 2015 and Jan. 2017, the Mariners had TWICE as many trades as the #3 team over that period, San Diego.  (Note also that it is easiest to trade with really bad teams, or to trade with huge-market teams like LA and NY.)

Maybe you think you are making $1.03 on every $1.00 trade -- on average.  This is also Dr. D's opinion of himself in fantasy baseball.  :- )  In this case, making $0.03 profit per trade, would you rather make 10 trades, or 500?

.....

You might ask, "If Dipoto can beat his fellow GM's out of players in trades, then why can't he exploit the scrap heap in Pat Gillick style?"  Well, Dipoto seems to fancy his chances most when it comes to young players who have not been allowed to TRY the big leagues (much) -- Ben Gamel, Mitch Haniger, Dan Vogelbach, Max Povse and so on.

Does Jerry Dipoto really, honestly have a sharp eye for the Mitch Hanigers and Ben Gamels of the world?  Maybe.  But you notice too that most of his "hits" have been AAA saber picks.

BABVA,

Dr D

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