James Paxton's 4.6 Wins Above Replacement
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James Paxton blew down the Angels for 6 innings, with three hits and 9 whuffs. This left him at 4.6 WAR on the season, which is #5-6 in the league tied with Chris Archer.
We've noticed before that Zeus doesn't SHOW UP on the WAR chart unless you remove the requirements for being "qualified," like you gotta throw 162 innings to "qualify" for the ERA title. Obviously you need a playing-time minimum for a batting average race; obviously you DON'T need one for HR and RBI. It would be hilarious for somebody to finish 5th in RBI at 300, 350 at bats.
So here's the question. If you could have 4.6 Wins Above Replacement -- about 43 runs saved over a Rainier -- from Paxton next year, would you rather have it be in 34 starts, or in 24 starts due to a sprained ankle and a torn fingernail?
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With Rickey Henderson it was obvious. Take his 50, 60 runs above AAA in the 125 games he gave you, and then try to get extra runs in the other 35-40 games. Make sense? That's why platoon hitters correlate with pennantwinners.
But with pitchers I'll cheerfully admit there is a stability problem. Maybe it just saps the players' confidence too much for a #1 starter to be unreliable. MAYBE! You'll still take 125 games from Barry Bonds at a 1300 OPS, now won't you.
You have the decision right now: 40-50 runs saved from Paxton next year, and he can do it in 34 starts or 24. Obviously the guy who does it in 34 won't be as nuclear, won't have as much chance of doing a Madison Bumgarner in the postseason. But maybe the team will get into rhythm.
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After the top 7 starters, the WAR drops off quick. The #8 guy is Michael Fullmer at only 3.5 WAR. There are 3 other starting pitchers at 3.0 WAR or above who are "unqualified," who were out part of the year. All of them play for one team! McCullers, Peacock, and Morton.
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Justin Verlander had 4.1 WAR in 206 innings, a good contrast to James Paxton's 4.6 WAR in 136 innings. Which would you rather? Two nights ago I watched the movie Moneyball and was freshly reminded of all the scouts and their attitudes towards people who have never seen a pitch. The movie starts with Hill and Pitt attempting to patch together a Jason Giambi out of Scott Hatteberg, David Justice and who else was it? It's very easy to imagine the scouts voting 100% for Verlander's 200+ innings, and to imagine Jonah Hill voting for Paxton's 136.
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WON-LOST RECORD
In terms of WAR it's easy (or if it's not, SABRMatt can correct me if I'm wrong). Paxton, in theory, added 4.6 wins to the Mariners' total; they were 78-84 with him and would have been 73-89 or 74-88 without him.
If you re-ran the situation in 2018, you'd get Paxton's 4.6 wins over 33 starts and be in the same place. Or you'd get it in 24 starts -- and then his Rainiers sub would contribute (in theory) 0.0 WAR and you'd be at the same spot.
No difference.
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In terms of intuition, we'd say:
(1) The Mariners were 12-5 in Paxton's decisions but only 14-10 in his starts. The blown leads are not typical of MLB teams or of the M's. You assume to win half the games your SP gets no decision. Clayton Kershaw's lifetime record is 144-64, a .692 clip. He goes 18-4, 20-3 all the time. For Paxton to go 12-5, in my view, is simply typical for a pitcher of his immense quality.
(2) You figure you split the games he doesn't get a decision. A Paxton who is right next year, the over-under is about 16-7 for his record, which is saying a whale of a lot. You split the other 10 games, you've won 22-23 of 33 games.
(3) Suppose he's hurt. You win 15-16 of 24. Then you win what, 3-4 of the 9 started by Marc-O? (you have an offense and bullpen.) That's 18-20 wins of 33. Not as good as Full Season Paxton but...
(4) How many games does a Full Season VERLANDER OR ARCHER win? SABRMatt can finish the math; I've hit my saturation point for the day. :- ) Probably about 20 of 33.
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SPEAKING AS A WANNABE GM
I am all about James Paxton types because of this principle --- > it is not about WAR and a few extra runs for a buck. It's not about cleverly winning 83 games instead of 79, with half the money an 89-win team uses. Sabes live on that shtick, but that's not what GM'ing is about.
It is about pennants. It's about the big season. It's about the Brand and the pennant chase, things coming together for the Red Sox' 2004 season.
Jerry Dipoto wants tiny successes to MERGE INTO a larger success - a pennant. Whether or not a planet-busting talent is the best investment, he is still the best chance for a special season.
Ergo, the scouts would grouse and gripe and talk me into a 200-IP Opening Day starter in front of Paxton. To them, a "serious" team MUST have a 200-innings Opening Day horse (contra what the actual record shows). Fine. Anybody around here rejecting that idea?
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SPEAKING AS A FAN
I happen to like being able to hope and dream. I also flat-out enjoy watching some guys throw the ball. No way in the world I give up such an exciting player.
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SPEAKING AS A SABE
:: shrug :: 4-5 WAR in part of a season or a whole season, it's probably about the same thing.
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Your turn now,
Dr D