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I don't think paying Smyly next season would allow is to retain him for 2019, unless we offered him a QO, which would be pretty unlikely coming off his injury. It's doubtful he will pitch much at the MLB level in 2018 from what I've seen.
As for Leake, I much prefer your outlook for him than mine. I'm not confident he's a 2 WAR pitcher for 3 more seasons unfortunately. He may be an improvement in 2018, which is what really matters anyways, but by 2020 he actually could be Gallardo.. Silva, Batista and Washbums contracts always have me leery of these low-level guys we have to pay.