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Friday Morning Frappuccino, 8.25.17

Miranda's not in a slump, he's DUE

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WILD CARD 2:  NO NEWS IS GOOD NEWS

... for the team that didn't play, that is.  Like you land on "Go To Jail, Do Not Pass Go, Do Not Collect 1 Defeat" in Monopoly.  Sit and prosper in the pokey, wayyyyy over .500 at 65-63, while everybody else does each other damage:

√ Twinkies lose their 2nd in a row, 5-1, to the cruddy White Sox and the cruddy Derek Holland (7-13, 6.05).  Minnesota only +3 over .500, soon to be -17 under .500.

√ stRangers use Martin Perez' three strikeouts to lock down the pesky rodent Angels, 3-0.  Check.  LAA now only +2 over .500.

√ Royals score 1 in the first, 1 in the second, cruise all game ... to get KO'ed by a lead-changing Rockies HR in the 8th.  Royals +2.

√ Tampa and Balmer are in free fall, though Texas has scrabbled back in with their fingernails.

Leaving the rodent Angels, the Royals and the awe-inspiring Seattle Mariners all tied for the WC2 at two games over.  If you figure the Twins don't count, which you figure right.

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M's 9, BRAVES 6 WEDNESDAY

Erasmo Ramirez is my poster child for metronomic, boring, dreary vanilla performances.  We're here to tell you he throws the same ball Every. Single. Game.  Which, throwing a mind-numbingly mediocre MLB(TM) 95 pitches Once. Every. Week. is better than throwing a mind-numbingly Must Not Be Named string of pitches once every week.

When Erasmo first came up, I thought he'd have a putaway changeup.  Didn't work out that way.  He does have three perfectly decent pitches.  He paints with a meh-ball thrown from a height that those Disney signs say "You Must Be This Tall To Ride"?  Teacups, not Space Mountain.  He works off the meh-ball with a slider that can break out of the zone a little bit, works with a change that has sloppy location but which is usually not centered.

He's the human version of a pitching golf course.  The Braves shot 69 on him Wednesday; the coupla teams before him shot 77's.  It's really on them when he pitches.  Nominally Erasmo has three consecutive "quality starts," which, if this offense and bullpen get 6 IP 3 ER it will post Suburb Guy's hoped-for +10 finish.

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MITCH HANIGER looks like he's getting into a zone.  He's whaling outside pitches far and deep to right, with that sudden swing again.  He can get hot and slug .600 for a month or two.  I saw him do it one year.

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ROBINSON CANO is a very good facsimile of Lou Gehrig, as Kroogs pointed out.  (You ever get sick of trying to remember whether the E is before the U?)  This is his 11th straight year with 156-161 games, man!  So when he pulled up lame between 1B and 2B, the ballplayers were alarmed.  Usually a sniper from the rooftop couldn't draw that kind of a limp from Robbie.

We dodged a bullet when the verdict turned out to be "Day To Day."  Wheewwwwww.  ... in related news, history's "Most Comparable Player" to Cano was Joe Torre, according to baseball-reference.  For you Millenials out there, Joe Torre was a catcher with a lifetime 130 OPS+ in 9,000 plate appearances.  It's not routine for catchers' legs to hold up over 18 years, so the physical specimen aspect is relatable here too.

What were we saying ... oh yeah.  In a pennant race it's acceptable to retain your #3 hitter for deployment.

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NELSON CRUZ is slugging .816 the last two weeks and, we suppose, approximately that the last Many weeks.  "No he AIN'T just another fighta Rock!  He's a WRECKIN MACHINE!  And he's hunnngggrrrrry"

MIKE ZUNINO is .300/.440/.600 the last two weeks.  He continues to boggle with his physical power.  Honestly can't figure out whether he's got more natural power or Nelson Cruz does.

YONDER ALONSO is batting .333/.390/.475 the last two weeks.  CANO, HEREDIA and SEAGER are also hitting well over those games.  Leonys Martin is hitting less well, which has come to mean more batter's box Ho-Ho's for the Mitch Hanigers of the Mariner world.

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ARIEL MIRANDA takes on CC Sabathia.  We will accept 1 of 3 in New York and wow, 2 of 3 would be like Virginia just blinkin' scored on William & Mary.  But Miranda has given up 2-6 runs in eight consecutive starts, so .... 

... Dr. D's chalk talk for Friday?  His X's and O's call for Miranda to try to match his 5 IP, 3 ER of August 19 while the Mariners are realllllll sure to score more than that in the first six innings.  He would have guesstimated a 21.6% chance of this occurring, but 538.com has it at 43%.  Back in the day, 43% was right at the fraction 3/7, but we know that schools approach things differently these days.

We present the below as exhibit A.  We love 538.com's attempt to use chess-like ratings.  A tiny bit remarkable that Friday's "pitcher quality" adjusts the rating by less than 1/5 of 1% for both teams.  That's a departure from Earl's Seventh Law, "Momentum Is Only As Good As the Next Day's Starting Pitcher."  But we'll take it:

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Point is, the game doesn't FEEL cheery from here.  So the math provides ginormous comfort.  3 chances to win, 4 chances to lose Friday, yabba dabba do.

BABVA,

jemanji

Blog: 
Dr's R/X

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