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On Pennant Races and Special Talent ...

Here's my opinion I could be wrong

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As y'know, Dr. D has nothing but respect for James' body of work.  As y'also know, we think it an overreaction that he fights so hard against the concept of hot streaks, cold streaks, extra gears, etc.

Recently he snapped at another reader for suggesting --- > that "special talent" like Robinson Cano (my example) has the ability to hit playoff pitching.  But then another reader dug into James' old work and deployed James' words against himself.  Very much to his credit -- would you do this? -- he printed the letter.  And responded with nothing other than a wink and smile (in the form of a Craig Biggio photo).

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"There are hitters who rake against bad pitching but can't touch good pitching.  
Asked by: JackKeefe  
Answered: 8/3/2017  
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Nonsense.  You can't prove that that is true; you're just making it up. - James  
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Hey Bill: so you had your own words quoted back at you re Carlton in 1983. This recent exchange reminded me of what you once wrote about Biggio:vs. this writeup which I remembered from 1988:  
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"...over time, almost everybody is going to hit better against weaker pitchers. I doubt that anybody was as consistent or extreme about it as Biggio was. In 2003 he hit .354 against pitchers with ERAs over 5.25 (64 for 181), but .143 against pitchers with ERAs under 3.50 (19 for 133). In 2004 he hit .382 with 10 homers in 110 at bats against pitchers with ERAs over 5.25. Every year he has had huge good pitcher/bad pitcher splits.
 
I'm not picking on him, I hope, but the reason that Biggio struggled in clutch situations and against good pitchers couldn't be more obvious. He was an overachiever..." . - James 1988
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Answered: 8/19/2017
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 Image result for photo craig biggio
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Any of us who have written baseball for 10, 20, 30 years, you could find us contradicting ourselves like that.  Kudos to BJOL for underlining it.  ...the point is, I'm a firm believer that James was right the first time, right in 1988.

It has always mystified me why "hot streaks" should exist in every sport but baseball.  Has always mystified me how you could watch Reggie Jackson's concentration in the playoffs and ... well, it's mystifying how anybody who ever played organized basketball could FAIL to believe in confidence and hot shooting.

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The "live" point here though is OVERACHIEVING.  Robinson Cano is a golden talent; when he crushed a game-winning home run against David Robertson a few weeks ago, Robertson said "It was a great pitch.  He's just a great hitter."

The M's have their share of Stars -- Cano, Boomstick, Paxton, Sugar -- and I enjoy watching them perform against tough competition.  Yonder Alonso may also surprise down the stretch; he's a Golden Boy.

On the other side of it, I doubt any of us would be expecting miracles from Mike Zunino, Ben Gamel, Leonys Martin, etc., in a playoff game.

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It's funny - there's something about Japanese pitchers that is bullet-proof against tough competition and tough situations also.  If Hisashi Iwakuma got back, I'd take him in a game 7.  I suspect it's a cultural thing, expecting your opponent to play very well.  Also Kyle Seager remains unruffled with low weight, on a subconscious level, when enemies perform well against him.

That's my opinion I could be wrong.  :: dennis miller ::

Enjoy,

Dr. D

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