The Sonny Gray Rumor
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Q. Would Dr. D mortgage the future for Sonny Gray?
A. He thoroughly enjoyed Zoom's impassioned plea for the M's to steer far clear of this land mine. A convincing case-against it is, too.
Unfortunately for those with a physical aversion to getting train-robbed by a horseback Billy Beane wearing a kerchief over his face, "a source with knowledge of the team's thinking" -- that would be either Dipoto himself or the medium John Edward, we suppose -- said "he is going for it these next two years," going completely in.
As a general rule Dr. D is pleased to take back the best player in any deal. So were the Detroit Tigers, when they gave us four spare parts and lotto tickets for Doug Fister. I give 4, you give 1, all day long baby. Sonny Gray IS a difference-maker during 3 major league seasons counting this one. That's like half of a six-year club controls era. But that's not the over-arc'ing point here ...
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Another way to look at the above. If you Sonny Gray were a Mariner right now, would you deal him AWAY this week for a top-100 prospect, a good young #3-4 outfielder and ? ... should the Mariners DO that with Nelson Cruz? I'm sure they could. Boomstick is an underpaid MLB star with maybe a couple years in him, you hope. Actually Cruz has only 2018 left on his deal and Gray has 2018-19.
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Referring not to any Denizen but to the cliche itself. :- ) The phrase "your future" mis-frames the debate in a way that inhibits clear thinking. Your #1 prospect is never your "future," no matter what org you are in. Suppose that one kid blows out a knee or something. Does the herald angel blow a trumpet and the curtain come down on space-time itself? That's what they said about Y2K computers. SHOW ME
But that's not the over-arc'ing point either ...
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Certainly there is a point at which you don't want to pay $4.50 on the $1 dollar. But as a general rule of thumb you will find that it is pure wisdom, "Take no thought for tomorrow; sufficient unto today is the evil thereof." Meaning, your problems right now are already more than too much for you, even if you punch today's problems as hard in the face as you possibly can, without reserving 50% of your strength for imaginary worries down the line.
It's not an absolute. But you will be surprised how well next year falls in line if you do your very best this year. Worked out for the Royals and James Shields.
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Zoom predicted Kyle Lewis and one of our 4 OF's as a starting point here. Let's stipulate that. If we do, then Mitch Haniger is tier 1, Ben Gamel is tier 2, Guillermo Heredia is tier 3 (because Leonys Martin is almost the same thing) and Jarrod Dyson is tier 5. Did we forget that Dyson walks in two months? Well, from Beane's angle Dyson is meaningless, isn't he.
Heredia or Dyson, not a dealbreaker. Coughing up Haniger or Gamel, that's pretty close to creating one hole to patch another says the Mainframe. Kyle Lewis, Guillermo Heredia and ? for Gray and ?, let's keep talking. You're giving up a lot. You're also getting a whale of a lot.
Like Forrest Gump advised Jenny that Viet Nam was "a whole other country" :- ) here is a whole other article, a national one, on Gray-to-Seattle.
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For what it's worth, Gray right now has the lowest FIP of his career, 3.38 with an xFIP of 3.41. That xFIP would have him #7 in the American League if he qualified, one step below James Paxton at #6 and two slots ahead of Chris Archer at #9. Not bad compared to our #5 starter, whoever he is.
I don't expect Gray to twirl 2,000 innings in the majors; he's even got Taro's "inverted W." But the question is this year and a couple more. You're not committing 7 years and $200M; you're committing a glamor minor leaguer. Or maybe you'd rather just pay cash for a pitcher of his quality to Scott Boras? ;- )
Sometimes the best moves are the ones you don't make. Zoom may be right that Beane, chuckling into last-moment auction pressure, will get back more than the White Sox got for Quintana. Even at that, this one is a tough call, though.
My $0.02,
Dr D