The Marco Template
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LHP with STRAIGHT CHANGEUP
You're wayyyyy too familiar with Dr. D's liking of left hand pitchers with yo-yo changeups and life on their fastballs. In fact the only three LHP's recently who featured straight changeups with decent heat were Cole Hamels, Francisco Liriano and the young Johan Santana, which was why we liked the Danny Hultzen lotto ticket. A template doesn't always pan out, but it broadens the bandwidth of success.
Again, Mark Melancon explained why a straight changeup, if well sold, limits a hitter's subliminal cues on the pitch. A great change makes the batter see the pitch rather than feel it out of the hand. The other slowwww pitch is a change curve, but there you've got the disaster hang scenario. When Andrew Moore hung one against the Yankees, here came da Judge to sentence the pitch to back-wall detention.
So, yeah, gimme a weaponized changeup and I'm three yards ahead of yer in a 40-yard dash.
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EXHIBITS A, B, C ... Z
Malcontent pointed to Alex Cobb as an excellent MLB pitcher with exactly the same arsenal as Marco Gonzalez. He's right, though here we're focusing on the left hand game. If Gonzalez' change be the plus pitch they say it is, and if Gonzalez' curve is more than a show-me pitch, then with the 90-91 fastball that's precisely what Cobb uses.
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In fact, let's take the left handers who threw the most changeups over the period 2010-17. It's quite a list, especially if you appreciate quality over star power. Here is the list of such pitchers. Now keep in mind this is a complete list! Every LHP who threw 20% changeups or more this decade:
PLUS FASTBALLS - Cole Hamels - Francisco Liriano
MINUS FASTBALLS - Jason Vargas - Tommy Milone - Jeff Francis - Wade LeBlanc - Mark Beuhrle - Chris Capuano - Chris Narveson
AVERAGE FASTBALLS, LIKE MARCO - Jorge de la Rosa - Marco Estrada - Johan Santana - John Danks - Eric Stults - Brett Cecil - Ricky Romero
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That's 16 lefties this past decade whose changeups warranted 20% usage. What do we have, a good number of Romeros and Estradas at the TOR, a big majority who contribute at Capuano or Milone level, and only a few Wade LeBlancs.
Ricky Romero, for example, also had Marco's arsenal and his first three years he was going 14-9, 3.73. If you got that out of a $500,000 number five starter, well ... forget that. If you got Tommy Milone for $500,000 you'd be getting 12-9, 3.94. Marco Gonzalez would have been so cool by Billy Beane... even supposing you got two "surprising" years out of a cheap LHP before they booked him -- as Milone -- well, dump him later.
Jeff Francis had a few years running 115 ERA's. Beuhrle made a few starts in his day. Chris Capuano was better than league average for five years. Maybe (probably?) Marco Gonzalez doesn't have the necessary command or whatever, but this LHP changeup game is a major league approach. It's an arsenal that works well in three deck stadiums.
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Here is a video of Gonzalez in Sept. 2014. Now, that's the whole question, whether he's back to 2014-15; his velocity is back but we don't know whether he is. Pitches:
1 = Moyeresque deadfish changeup low and away
2 = see above
3 = high fastball (that's supposed to be a key, enough life to miss bats up)
4 = curve low
5 = another sweet 78 MPH change low away
6 = high away fastball, only 88 MPH, playing up at this point in the game apparently
7 = hits a double :- )
8 = crisp fastball inside to RH
9 = same (looks faster than the gun says)
10 = Iwakuma-style fastball up the ladder
This video tells us why the scouts said Saturday, IFF he gets back to his 2014 sharpness then "the M's win the trade."
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The feature pitch being a change, it makes you wonder about a platoon split. You can't possibly throw that slow flopping change into a lefty's wheelhouse. That's one of baseball's rare absolutes. Even if the lefty is out in front he's going to barrel the pitch.
But he'll go fastball-curve against lefties and the slow change could be rough on righties. If Gonzalez' changeup be 76-78 MPH then the only LHP on the list above with this separation would be Marco Estrada. There were a few guys with 78 changeups but they threw 86 MPH fastballs.
Enjoy,
Dr D