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Haniger Due Back In a Week

and still sitting #15 in the AL for wins above replacement

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Haniger is #15 in the league in WAR, despite playing 21 games to most others' 35-38 games.  Ben Gamel is #33 in the league, despite only 18 games' activity.  If you check Fangraphs there's a trick to finding them on the WAR leaderboards:  you have to drop the filter that says "Qualified" by amount of time played.

:- )

Ran across this Hey Bill from late in 2011:

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Michael Morse of the Nats seems to have really broken out this year. Before this year, he was mainly described as a "utility man." This year he's been a big slugger. But he's also going to be 30 years old next season. My understanding, from reading your old Abstracts, is that real stars are invariably big league studs by age 25, and often have their best seasons before age 29. At his age, is it likely that he's truly established a new level of play and might be worth a big long term contract or is it more likely that his break out year has come too late to really want to invest in him?
Asked by: pablo

Answered: 9/24/2011
One shouldn't say that good players INVARIABLY are established by age 26; there are always exceptions.   Morse has shown ability as a hitter for several years, but has been prevented from breaking through by injuries and opportunity.   Many times, when a player is late getting started, he also is late fading away, like Raul Ibanez, Edgar Martinez or Tony Phillips.   This probably happens because there is a psychological component of aging in a ballplayer; a player who is late getting a chance to play is psychologically "younger" than a 30-year-old player who has been a regular for six years.   
 
I wouldn't get carried away with Morse' ability.   He is very slow, and his strikeout to walk ratio is awful.   This leaves him with a narrow base of skills.   He is more a second-division regular than a first-division star.   Still, I don't see any reason to think he couldn't have five or six pretty decent seasons coming up.

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This implies James' own firm conviction that it's very, very rare for a position player to "get good" late in his career.  (If you just joined us, this is not at ALL rare for a pitcher, because pitchers will polish off their mechanics or add a pitch or learn to expand the strike zone or whatever.  But hitters rely on 100,000 pitches' worth of sight recognition, that and talent.)

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Mike Morse himself had just finished hitting for a 133 and then 147 OPS+ at ages 28 and 29 when James answered this question.  He hit 111 in a part-time season the year after James answered it, and then 84 the following year.  For what it's worth.  But that's the kind of thing that has always earned James our respect.  You go back and look at answers like this from 1988, or 1994, or 2005, and there sure are a lot of them that turn out like this answer did.

Not that anybody would shed many tears if Mitch Haniger gave us two full years at a 140 OPS+.  And not that James' answer limits Haniger; it does not.  The Mainframe continues to boggle at Haniger's craftsmanship inside the batters' box and outside of it.

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Which brings us to the real question.  Do you think that the Mariners, in 40 years, have ever had a set of rookies look as good as the Mariners' four rookies look right now?  In order:  Haniger, Gamel, Heredia, Motter.  (I don't know if Motter is technically qualified for a ROY vote and that would have nothing to do with the question anyway.)

In 1984 the Mariners did have Jim Presley to go with Alvin Davis, but Presley was bad in 1984.  I'm talking about, if you plotted their trajectories forward in dashed lines from where they stand right now.  Is this the best we've ever seen it look?  Ruppert Jones, Julio Cruz and Dan Meyer were actually a nice trio of players in the expansion year, but Cruz didn't start and Meyer wasn't a rookie.

It would take a lot to pry me loose of Mitch Haniger, Ben Gamel, Guillermo Heredia and Taylor Motter in a trade.  Would you cough them up right now for a couple of years of Jose Quintana plus Michael Kopech, the 100-MPH righty they got from Boston?

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