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HE WHO MUST NOT BE NAMED

In the second half of 2015, and all during 2016, Gallardo threw a fastball that was (1) slow, or "minus," and (2) more wild than most AA pitchers throw them.  The result, last year, was an inconceivable 6.5 strikeout, 4.7 BB, plus Gopheritis tragedy.  In spring training 2017, his fastball had some juice back (to average-solid) but was, if anything, even wilder.  

His change-speed game consisted of a -5 MPH slider that had one plane and that got blasted accordingly.  Not just in 2016, but since summer 2015 and also this March.  Dr. Detecto recorded these facts in horrific detail.  Malcontent recorded his dissension on the front page of SSI.  Billy Zoom and a few others said, hey, he's banking $13M and he's been told he needs to earn it.  Ho-kay, sez Dr. D, sensibly.

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Then, in the first 2 games of 2017, Gallardo gave up 21 baserunners in 10 innings (!) while striking out only 6 men.  Three.five baserunners per whiff doesn't work.

In the 3rd game, suddenly, Gallardo did not walk anybody.  He still got pounded, but didn't issue any ball fours.  Dr. D was a bit quizzical at this game.  Gallardo was punished with zero home runs for his "here it is, hit it" conversion.  It was as though he was tossing and turning fitfully, trying to wake up.

Then, after three 2017 games, HWMNBN sproinged his eyelids wide open, as if waking up from a psychotic night terror.  As if Game 3 suddenly brought to his memory what it takes to cause batters to be out, he started throwing fairly kinda sorta middling half decent.

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In the last 3 games, Gallardo threw up and down the zone, re-weaponizing his fastball to some extent -- and used his curve and change.  He fanned 17! batters against 6 walks and, more or less, strung three quality starts.  Let's not go bonkers here; Chase de Jong just locked down the same Rangers team that Gallardo did.  And Gallardo's ERA+ is 88 despite below-average opposition.

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THE NEW INNINGS EATER

But still, there is a whale of a difference between --- > "He Who Must Not Be Named" and a mediocre innings eater.  For three games Gallardo has been the latter.  It looks like he will continue to be such.  Would Dr. D trade Seth Smith for Gallardo NOW?  That! is the question.

In all fairness.

Not to be stubborn.  Not to be married to a previous position.

But if we were drafting AL rotisserie and the pitchers were in neutral parks, I'd still grab Wade Miley or Chris Young or Jason Vargas wayyyy before I'd take this (kinda okay) version of Gallardo.  Why?  

• His ERA is 4.50 in Safeco, despite tremendous luck stats.  His HR/fly is an impossible 6%.  
• His first pitch strike % doesn't justify his (already not cool) walk rate.
• He looks to Dr. D like he's throwing at his best, leaving us with two choices:  a quality start on a good night against a weak lineup, or getting blasted, 50-50 chance.

My thing on pitching is templates.  And how good a man is within that template.  Name me another innings eater who is wild with his fastball?  That's my trepidation, going forward.

That's not to say you can't have him if you want him.  I'm just saying the good version of Yovani is a guy I'd be shuffling around with Rob Whalen and Dillon Overton and Chris Heston in the #5 slot.  But a #4-5-6 starter is a lot different from a #15 starter, which is literally where SSI had him pegged.

Zoom said I might be pleasantly surprised.  Slap me silly, I'm pleasantly surprised.  You hit the same offseason gyms as this guy or what, man?

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PITCHABILITY

When Dipoto traded for a 2-pitch $13M starter throwing 88 MPH with the worst slider in baseball, he said "This guy has been getting big league hitters out for a DECADE."  It could very well be that Dipoto included in this, the concept that Gallardo would figure out up-and-down fastballs, curves instead of sliders, or SOMETHING.  Maybe (so sue me) he also bargained that Gallardo would find a way to enhance his performance.  Or maybe Dipoto knew the Gallardo physically was due for a rebound, like Justin Verlander was, like Felix was.

In any case, this is one thing I like about Gallardo:  he's got all these hitters booked, knows when to keep the ball out of the danger zones.  His HR rate is 0.5 and that's not puuurre luck.  Gallardo does indeed have a lot of savvy.

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STILL!  If he's going to give me a decent shot at getting out of his starts alive, say our club plays .400, .450 ball in his starts, that is WAYYYYY, WAYYYYYYYYY better than what I WORST-WAGER guaranteed you'd suffer.  My bad.

So it goes,

Dr. D