M's 8, Tigers 0
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PREDICTABLE FAWNING Dept.
Back when Paxton was leaning back too far, back when he was wild, he got hit around one game and he remarked "I've either got to spot my fastball or get a breaking pitch over. One of the two." He said that or something that amounts to exactly that. The point was, nobody can get away with ONE weapon. He needed two.
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Fast forward to nowadays... in the Shout Box during the first 2 hitters we ticked off 6 weapons, as opposed to two weapons. The most nuclear of these is the fastball inner 1/3 to righties. Paxton is distinctive here in that a Cliff Lee will throw it precisely on the inside edge or just off the edge inside, but Paxton will take a good 5, 6 inches of the plate in addition! to that. It's more like 6 inches than 5. And Paxton will throw that inner-third fastball thigh high, or over the hands.
It's a good candidate for the most unhittable pitch I have seen. Even Randy Johnson rarely threw jam pitches at RH's after he hit J.T. Snow.
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Other weapons... knee pound fastball. Straight challenge fastball first pitch to a "patient" hitter. Yakker for a strike or yakker in the dirt (which he wasn't throwing Wednesday; the curve was sailing high). We call it a "foshball" because it's a slider that comes nowhere near back to 0" vertical; he throws that in a U shape ... (1) back door to nip the outside, (2) way in tight to RH, (3) below the knees.
That's a good 8 weapons and he needs two. In fact Wednesday he threw like 85 heaters, 15 foshes and 15 yakkers because he only needed the fastball plus the AVAILABILITY of the fosh.
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In 4 of 5 games this year, Paxton has been able to hit the inside 6" and has had at least one offspeed pitch. That is 3 weapons plus. Therefore in 4 of 5 games he has thrown a shutout. When he has 3 weapons (let alone 8) it is him, Kershaw, Bumgarner, Sale and maybe Sherzer at his best. Syndergaard when he's on.
This 4 games out of 5, Paxton's been considerably better even than the rookie Pineda, as good as any Mariner ever with the POSSIBLE exception of Randy Johnson. Of course Unit got his system down and then did it game-in, game-out for a couple decades. But Paxton in April has been no worse than Johnson's 20 years. And he's got the 39:6:0 slash line, in 32 IP, to show for it.
Enjoy. The reason to watch sports is to see something special. From Griffey through Ichiro through now Paxton, the M's have had more than their fair share of dominators. ... this is where Silentpadna and I came in, gushing over Randy Johnson being the next Sandy Koufax when out-of-towners would go "Hoo Haw! What's the matter, was Lefty Grove not available?" It's come full circle :- )
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ANOTHER DAY, ANOTHER 8 RUNS
I think it was Wishhiker who Shouted that the M's now have the #1 runs total in the American League. This despite a lost first week in Houston and LA? Edit out that first week* and the M's lead the American League like the Big Red Machine: 137 OPS+, .361 OBP wayyyyy out in front, twice the normal team's SB's, tons of HR's and ISO ... without ever having their lineup on the field at the same time.
But my fave stat, 11% BB and 16% K whereas the #2 team, Detroit, is at 9/22. Actually the M's EYE (BB/K) ratio is 0.69 since the first week, compared to the average 0.44 and the White Sox at 0.27. The Red Sox led the league last season at 0.48. Here the M's are clipping along at 0.69 lately.
Hasn't Paxton won by 5-0, 6-0 and 8-0? All things considered I like it when the M's destroy their enemies.
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SORRY, I CHANGED THE SUBJECT THERE FOR A SECOND
Here is a StatCast piece on Zeus Wednesday.
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OUR NEW SHORTSTOP
He just looks so SUDDEN. And strong. And seeing the ball so great. For ten games he's looked like our best player, better than Boomstick, better than Seager. His results actually haven't quite been there yet, but the LOOK ... yowch.
Speaking of the Taijuan deal, Diderot reminded us that if we'd dealt him for Upton, we'd a had to give up Paxton to get Segura and Haniger. What a first half Haniger has had this month. 2.0 WAR per b-ref, 1.5 WAR per Fangraphs. Quite enough for one player before the All-Star break, ya?
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SAMPLE STATS THIS WEEK, LAST 7 GAMES
Danny Valencia .294/.400/.588 and he's hitting the ball with authority the other way.
Boomstick all the way back, hitting over .500 the last 7, 10 games. 11 ribbies this week. He's chasing Motter furiously in average launch velocity, trailing only 93.7 to 94.3.
Dyson hitting .320 with 4 SB's. He's very last in the majors in launch velocity, him and Billy Hamilton the two guys below 80. LOL. But he does have one "barrel" (a ball with a theoretical BABIP of .500). One "barrel" for Dyson equals the one "barrel" that James Paxton has coughed up. It's going to be a whale of a season-long contest.
Guillermo Heredia .333/.391/.524. In fact the following players have OPS in the neighborhood of 1000: Valencia, Boomstick, Heredia, Haniger (sigh), Segura, Cano, Motter ... Seager slugging .500. The only guys not hitting are Zuumball and Leonys Martin...
The Mariners have scored 5+ runs in 12 of 16 games. Wow. I wonder how often you see that. Certainly from Endy and Casey not that often. Let's hope De Jong knows how to Five and Dive.
Their run differential is +107 -104, meaning of course their expected W/L is 11-11. Fate will give us back those four games pretty soon. Um.
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PSYCHED UP ABOUT BEN GAMEL
Dr. D of course agrees that Gamel's chance to have a Brett Gardner career is like 15%, if that. However, to have Brett Gardner's rookie age-25 season of .270/.345/.380 with SB's and defense in 250 AB's --- > Gamel need only play a terrific RF, hit like he's been hitting, and show his 120 SX on the bases.
He might not. But I'll be rooting for that kind of a 250-AB season from Gamel. ... in theory you could have a bench of Taylor Motter, Brett Gardner :- ) Carlos Ruiz and whatever Boog Powell is. That would be the bench, not the MOTO. Sacre Bleu.
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HIT THAT LIKE BUTTON!
Or, if you can't find a like button, hit SportSpyder and link us up to something. Or tell us you disagree about Paxton being a good player. Or tell us why every new pitcher we try is terrible. Whatever. We're flexible :- )
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Could be a rainout Thursday. Maybe with Iwakuma vs Verlander that's the way to go? Nah. 538.com gives us 43%.
Cheers,
Dr D