Wish,
Good stuff! Don't tell you daughter about my note, please.
Oh, we could go 42-28...it could happen. But I've realized that the chances are so slim and the time window so small that we have basically 10 days to evaluate and act, one way or another.
I could see us going 5-3, being a bit more optimistic with Felix back and then deciding to buy rather than sell. But even if you get a bullpen arm like Chapman, just how much would his innings improve your chances. Assuming Fangraphs is right and we've a 1 in 8 shot, does a Chapman get it to 1 in 6? 1 in 4? It is hard to imagine that any relief pitcher, over 70 games, doubles your chances. And you have to have the Yankees agree to get out of the hunt just to get him. How much are would we be willing to trade to get 35 innings and increase your chances from 1 in 8 to 1 in 6. If you get Reddick, the best OF who seems to be available (a longshot the Orcs would ship him this way), does his glove improve your chances, because his bat isn't an improvement over Smith/Guti?
I think Smith's bat could return you something in the relief pitcher area. That would help. B-R has Smith at +1.5 WAR with his bat and -1.4 WAR with his glove/range/arm...or lack of. Would we really miss him that much?
Anyway, I desperately wish us to be in the play-off hunt in Sept. But I'm not convinced that swapping out Lind, Smith or Ianetta (or any two of them) really reduces our shot. And if that is the case, then keeping the same two likely doesn't really increase our shot, either. Not over 70 games.
Alas....I wish this all weren't so and if we sit with the guys we've got I won't kick. I'm pretty sure something will happen. I would offer Ianetta to Cleveland right now and dangle Smith to every team in the playoff hunt.
Moe