Supposing you compare Paxton to other 1st-year* starters who looked as overwhelming as Paxton does right now ... Strasburg, Chris Sale, Clayton Kershaw, David Price, Matt Moore, Kerry Wood, Francisco Liriano, Noah Syndergaard, CC Sabathia, Josh Beckett, whatever...
How many of the list of 10 make the Hall of Fame? Maybe 1. ... or perhaps 3, or perhaps 0. Everybody gets it that with 15 career wins, the chances of getting to 250 are long odds.
....
One thing we DO disagree on, is our assessment of Paxton's fragility. I think there's a big difference between shoulder impingement, elbow ligaments, etc., as opposed to a foot injury here, a rib injury there, etc. Especially for a Verlander type who is throwing his hardest after 100 pitches!
But most pitchers do get hurt. You're most likely right if you bet on any young pitcher to hit injury before greatness.