My take:
For better or worse, Lloyd is the only African-American manager left standing. The pressure on John Ellis (who, interestingly, is still the M's representative with MLB) will be enormous to keep him. Since Mather has already said he will hire someone with experience, who will understand the issues, I suspect the following parameters will be important:
1. The team must be better than 76-86 (16-17 the rest of the way), so Lloyd is >.500 for his two-year tenure and "proves" he hasn't lost the clubhouse. Anything better than 17-16 and I think he gets to start 2016 for sure.
2. The team plays as hard or harder during September, even with all the "try-outs" and skipped regular rotation starts, as they have since the All-Star break (probably necessary to meet the above standard).
3. The bullpen stabilizes, showing he can manage if they perform.
4. Paxton, Beimel, & Jackson, in particular, perform at a level justifying Lloyd's faith in the latter two, and his excuse that the loss of the first (along with 'Kuma, who's already made his part of the point) was a major factor in the team's record.
Any incoming experienced GM will realize the situation and rationalize keeping Lloyd if these conditions are met, because causing grief for Lincoln, Ellis, and Mather is just not smart.
Whether this is "right" or not, I leave to the reader. But until the upstairs is remodeled, some decisions will continue to be made on a "least-resistance" basis.