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Sneak Preview - M's Against Left Hand Pitching

What gets 0.9 runs without swinging a bat?

.

On March 18th, Drew Pomeranz came out spinning curve balls of David Wells quality and vintage.  Is Pomeranz going to opt for a 2.35 ERA again this year, as he did last year and as most of Billy Beane's choices usually prefer?  I dunno, but can tell you he was throwing like 2.35 ERA on Wednesday.

The lad is one of the 25 to 30 major league starters who use two pitches, and as his career has gone along he's gotten even more hip to his own shtick.  The below Fangraphs table counts up his Fastballs - Curves - Changes for yer:

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Now, you realize the F/X wonkiness would credit you 1% changeups even if ---> you dunked 100 touchdowns over the goalpost at CLink.  The point is, Drew Pomeranz uses a sharp little LH fastball and a knee-buckling hook, and that is it.  So did Randy Johnson, Steve Carlton, and 99 other unsolvable starters.  It was workin' a hunnerd years ago, and a hunnerd years from now, it'll still be workin'.

So shaddap about James Paxton learning a change.  Especially before the two pitches he's got are finished up.

....

Against this 2-pitch lefty arsenal, on this particular day, you had two options:

  • Figure out how to do something (anything, please, anything) with a pitcher's pitch, or
  • TAKE THE GASPIPE

I think we all know what the 2012 Mariners would have selected.  But this is supposed to be different.  Was it?  Therein lies an SSI article, kiddies.

....

Within the Mariners' nine-man lineup, there were in fact 4 players who chose the sleepy demise of carbon monoxoide poisoning, as opposed to settling for singles.  Not to name any names, these culprits were

  • Austin Jackson (showing ZERO more sting-in-his-swing than he did last fall)
  • Logan Morrison (though we must admit his career splits are just fine and dandy)
  • Brad Miller
  • Mike Zunino (the spirit is willing but the pitch recog is weak)

....

That said, there were five other Mariners, and they all tilted at the windmill in quite stirring fashion.  

In the first inning:

RICKIE WEEKS worked to two strikes and Pomeranz flipped a vicious back door hook.  Steee-rike Three ... except Weeks, scowling, leaned out and perfectly covered the ball, socking it down the 1B line.  Leadoff hitter on.

Austin Jackson has McClendon thinking about his leadoff spot.  Think STRONGLY, Mac.

ROBINSON CANO was on the receiving end of a clinical jam pitch, right on his hands, Left-on-Left.

Oakland's shortstop was then on the receiving end of an Ichiro line drive that whistled six feet over his head.  Cano did it so routinely that Blowers marvelled, "Cano could do that in his sleep."  Perhaps with the collateral damage now in the lineup with him, he can afford to do so?

If you're as much in Spring Training Mode as James Paxton ... this is Cano's calling card, the "screen drill" that keeps his hands in.  As Scott Baker said, "You simply cannot get a ball past him on the inside third."

Case in point, brother.

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NELSON CRUZ advanced to the plate, 1B-and-2B-one-out.  Now we would see.

Pomeranz nibbled, hoping that Cruz would sell himself out, but taking absolutely no chances in getting too much of the plate.  Cruz disdainfully watched the balls sail by, four inches outside.  Five pitches, no swings, no check swings, one HOME RUN LEADER FREE PASS.  Drive home safely.

You are aware, are you not?, that when Cruz trotted to first, the M's run expectancy went from 0.7 runs per inning, to 1.6 runs per inning.  

In that AB, Cruz netted the M's one run (less a tenth) by glowering at the pitcher.  Is evvv-rybody listening?

.

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Boom.  It's the first inning, and Kyle Seager is at the bat with the bases loaded.  The M's don't have a run yet .. and with our staff, you're already on the ropes.  This, gentlemen, is the stuff of championships.  You start seeing mechanical victories.

It so happened that Seager's sharp grounder hit an infielder, 3-6-3, so that was one of the innings that returned 0.  Over the course of 100 such innings, the M's would get 160 runs (or more, since it's Seager up).  Put another way:  if you had 9 such innings, you'd score 14 runs in the game.

.........

Next time round, Seager planted the back foot and nailed one off the fence.  Justin Ruggiano, our anti-lefty missile system in RF, then easily swatted a long single to plate Seager.  So it didn't even matter that we pulled the first killshot over Pomeranz' ear.

.........

Right now, against LHP's with a mad on, the M's still have 3 rally-killers in the lineup.  We don't say that the Mariners are about to win 116.  (Although on MLB.TV, Cliff Floyd kinda did.)  

Just that if you want to run with the Big Dogs, it can be cool if you're the ones with the MLB home run leader.

Enjoy,

Dr D

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