Teixeira at age 34
Hiro Nakamura tripped on into 2014 for us to check out Mark Teixeira's level of play. As you can see, Tex (pictured right) was still celebrating the occasional base knock.
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Sez the super-dee-dooper sabr-toothed Sandy from Braves'-land, regarding the idea of signing Teixeira a year before you hope to compete:
It's simply a bad ORDER to do things. You get a David Wright and Jose Reyes and Victor Diaz ALL showing *strong* indications of stardom at age 22/23 - then, by all means, go out and sink 6-7 years in a 28-year-old star.
Well, in some ways. It certainly isn't the order in which the Braves do things. :- )
It's the way you'd do things if you're wanting a re-load as opposed to re-build, though. The Mariners aren't a small-market team. This position begs the question of whether it should BE a re-build.
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Sandy kinda blew me away with this one:
The first two years - HIGH probability of great numbers. The last 6 years (assuming 8 year contract), it gets a lot fuzzier. I'd say a REASONABLE expectation is 4 acceptable years, and 4 unacceptable (and declining) years.
Wellll....... :wry smile: if the 3rd year on (age 31!) looks fuzzy for THIS dude, I'd say we're not going to agree on much.
If you're scared of Teixeira at 31, obviously you're screaming bloody murder at signing him for his age-35 season.
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I can see the case against, but I trust also that EVERYbody understands that the consensus of baseball GM's is going to be that Mark Teixeira is a sound risk at 8 years.
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Here are Tex's b-ref.com comps beginning at age 33 -- that is, casting aside the next 4 years' worth of production as valueless for the sake of this discussion.
Carlos Delgado had 4 years left of 130 (All-Star) performance left -- at the END of that period. In other words, if you'd given Delgado the 8-year deal at the same age we're proposing here, then at the BACK half of that contract, you'd have had a lefty cleanup hitter.
McGriff played 8 more years, after the age of 33 (!). I trust that nobody is saying that the Crime Dog was inherently more talented than Mark Teixeira. Dog was an illustration of just what a great bet it is, when you've got a lefthanded, high-OBP power guy. Remember, he'll be getting 80% good-platoon AB's the rest of his life.
*Yeah, I know Tex is a switch. That implies he'll have less, or more, trouble getting around when he's 37?!
McCovey played 10 (!!) more years -- after age 33 -- as a star (taking the years as a block).
Thome of course has remained a franchise hitter into his late 30's.
No, I'm serious here. Show me a LH power guy with huge walks, and I'll show you a guy I'll bet on to age well.
Kent Hrbek was one of the few guys who aged early, but Kent was (1) not in these guys' class talent-wise, and (2) never accused of taking care of himself. I'll bet 95% of us would toss Hrbek out as a totally-legit comp in this group.
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I think that if you're going to doubt Teixeira's age 34-37 seasons, you're going to have to say he's a fundamentally less-talented hitter than McGriff, Delgado, etc.
You can say that, but GM's will not.
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Sometimes I suspect that the problem here is that we stare hard at that 8th season, and we go, "well, what if he's an albatross then?" Well, what if he IS? Virtually ALL GM's will tell you, hey, we knew we might be overpaying late, but we wanted to make that run. It was part of the cost associated.
Every time you sign a pitcher, EVERY time, you're taking major risks. Fans have to get the idea of guarantees out of their heads. You're just going to lose your ante all night long and never win a pot.
Ask me? As baseball risks go, Mark Teixeira ages 29-36 is a lot more comfortable than a Daisuke Matsuzaka is going to be. Or Felix for his next contract.
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I could be wrong, but I've got a foam-rubber bat here I'm going to just pummel you with until Tex signs with the Angels. That is: all the smartest baseball shot-callers agree with me. I might be wrong, but I can't be brainless, if Theo Epstein and all them guys agree with me. Disagree with 8 years for Tex if you like, but you dare not call it unreasonable, when all the guys smarter than us, think that it IS reasonable.
So take a hike, son. We're signing him. :- )
Cheers,
jemanji