Finding the right comps for Joe Shlabotnik
Doc…Delgado is NOTHING like Teixeira.
.
:- ) :shaking head:
=== Slow Down A Minnit, Johnny ===
When comparing two hitters, there are any number of criteria you can use to match them:
1 RH/LH
2 Walk rate
3 HR rate
4 Phenotype
5 AVG/OBP/SLG
6 Speed score
7 etc etc etc
Which of these you believe to be most important is a matter of judgment. Your judgment can be tested; we'll talk about that in a moment.
................
In comp'ing Teixeira, I'm looking first and foremost for these things:
1 Lefthandedness
2 Extreme talent (130-140 OPS+ demonstrated level of performance)
3 High OBP (.400)
4 High HR's (30+ at least)5 Good BB/K ratio
6 Big guy with natural power
The rest is negotiable. But the MOST important thing is ALWAYS how GOOD the comp is. Aging depends first and foremost on whether you're good at age 30. Players are skiing down a slope. How long they stay at high levels, depends on how high they started!
You don't want to start with a hitter's G/F ratio and use that before you use OPS+. You'll wind up comparing Brad Wilkinson to Jim Thome.
Start by asking, "who was at this hitter's level?".
Give me every ballplayer who was truly MVP-caliber at the plate, and that pool of players all by itself will be an excellent comp pool for many purposes. Show me everybody who had three straight years of 140+ production, and that group will have a LOT of things in common...
...................
Now, my criteria could be right or they could be wrong, but to say that Mark Teixeira has "NOTHING!!" in common with Carlos Delgado is .... weird, and it doesn't take the discussion in a constructive direction. I've listed what he has in common with Delgado. Where do we take the discussion, if you're going to claim that Mark Teixeira does not have 30+ homers a year in common with Carlos Delgado? Suppose you say that he doesn't share the attribute of having two nostrils, and I post internet pics, and you still disagree? What do I do then? :- )
Tex has ALL of my six main criteria in common with Delgado: he's a lefty masher, with natural power, who controls the strike zone beautifully.
Of course you can find things that don't match. You might then say, "Personally, I feel that the most important attributes are X, Y, and Z, and therefore don't accept the Delgado comp."
.
=== Let's Check It Out Dept. ===
Are my criteria the right ones? Here's how you tell, in a first cut at it.
Let's acknowledge that there DOES EXIST such a thing as a pool of players with high HR's, high OBP, lefty swings, 210 lbs. plus, have proven 130 OPS+ production, etc etc. ...whether this is the RIGHT pool isn't the point.
That pool of players exists. And you can measure them. And Mark Teixeira is a member of that pool, by definition.
I'm claiming that if you go measure this pool of players, they don't fall off the table at no blinkin' 32 years of age. Go check it.
..............
SABRMatt can, and no doubt will :- ) propose his own set of criteria: a certain G/F rate, and switch hitter, and white rather than black, and whatever. Mark Teixeira will be a member of this pool, also, by definition.
Matt can then go measure this group, but if he's not careful, it will include a bunch of guys like Pete Rose and Julio Cruz, etc etc. But he can measure this group and see how it ages.
.............
Both groups will be (semi-)accurate representations of a guy like Mark Teixeira. If Teixeira is a member of all three groups, Group Yellow, Group Orange, and Group Red .... and EVERY member of group yellow achieved at least a 100 OPS+, and EVERY orange got at least a 110 OPS+, and EVERY Red got a 120 OPS+, which one forms Teixeira's lower bound, seeing he's a member of all three?
.
=== No Cooking the Books, Now, Dept. ===
Caveat: it is true that you don't want to set the lower bounds of Teixeira's comp-group right at Teixeria's own performance.
In other words, you don't want to take a guy with a 140 OPS+, and comp him to ten guys with OPS+ of 140 to 170. The broadcasters do this: "Dante Bichette is a member of a very select group with .300 AVG's and 100 RBI a year." Bichette winds up getting comp'ed to a whole lot of guys who are better than he is.
................
But we're not doing that with Teixeira. Teixeira's OPS+ level is 150, hard on the barrelhead. We comped him to guys 130-160. Teixeira's OBP the last two years has been .400 and .410. Carlos Delgado's was .383. etc etc.
You compare Mark Teixeira to a group of players, half of which are a little better and half of which are a little worse, and you're going to have quite a group of stars, amigos.
Go out and find all the big lefty 30-homer guys who ran .400 OBP's and who were as good as Teixeira, kiddies. You're not going to find them collapsing at age 32.
Cheers,
Dr D