Ken Griffey Jr. Update
See this article, the first of five, for an SSI series on Griffey. - Dr D
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Q. Do you see the Heyman report as 'intel,' or as a reporter trying to put 2 + 2 together?
A. At Mariner Central, Crusty Juggler linked us up to Jon Heyman's report that the Mariners are one of five teams with "some level of interest" in Griffey.
I take it fairly seriously, since:
1. Heyman expressly quotes Brian Goldberg and represents the intel as news. You don't figure that Heyman is simply lying about this.
2. With national, established reporters, the articles generally make it easy to tell whether the reporter is opining, or quoting a source. Heyman is a mainstream sports reporter, with significant responsibilities and a rep on the line. In other words, Heyman isn't in our situation as minor bloggers, where we can leave it vague as to whether we're sourced, and leave people to assume we're sourced when we're not.
Heyman's article is recently sourced (the source being Griffey, through his agent).
3. The "some level of interest" phrase is candid. What that phrase means is that Griffey is everybody's second or third choice, and that the clubs have conditions, such as Griffey moving out of CF, and so forth.
4. Heyman also is candid about the low quality and dated character of his source re: Tampa Bay.
5. When Heyman says, "Seattle and Tampa Bay are known to be interested," that's reporter-speak for, "We sportswriters are all hearing that from guys like Zduriencik / Goldberg / etc. It's common knowledge."
I'm not guaranteeing the M's have an offer on the table, but Heyman's report is indeed relevant. It likely re-confirms that under certain conditions, the M's would sign Griffey. (If it were not accurate, the M's would say so, as soon as the buzz got distracting.)
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Zduriencik has been consistent about wanting lefty power, and he has acted on that, including with Russell Branyan and Mike Carp.
Now he says he'd like to add a big bat. You think he means a righty bat? So, who other than Griffey and Dunn? Well, we haven't talked about Abreu.
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Q. Did he really have a bum knee, or is that just an excuse for a lousy season?
A. Goldberg stated that Griffey had knee surgery immediately after the season ended. This is either a lie or the truth, and it's easy to check, so it's the truth.
When a ballplayer checks into the hospital for surgery on the Wednesday after Sunday's final game, then his knee was killing him.
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Q. How much would a torn-up back knee affect power?
A. It could, sure. Especially for a leverage guy like Griffey. Try hitting a softball a good distance with your back foot up on one toe throughout your swing.
In fact, this makes all kinds of sense, because when Griffey went to the White Sox, his power just vanished. In 2007, he hit 30 dingers and slugged .500; in 2008, he slugged .540 in July with 5 homers, and then weirdly, he hit only 3 homers after August 1.
Meaning that yes, you should re-do your stats analysis if it was based on the premise that 2008 overall was Griffey's real ELP.
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Q. Leaving him where?
A. Well, I still think he should platoon, or as close to it as he'll let you. His three-year splits, 2006-08:
vs RHP - .284/.378/.508 .... (1,093 PA's ... 0.90 eye)
vs LHP - .216/.294/.395 .... (555 PA's ... 0.52 eye)
Supposing you give him a pass on 2008 because of the knee: in 2007, Griff hit .300/.402/.540 (!) vs RHP. That's serious mashing -- right up there with the pricey #3-#4 hitters.
Giving Junior a rest -- in a semi-platoon system -- would keep him fresh. In 2007, he was .286/.390/.568 overall, including lefties, at the break, then faded badly.
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Q. You think Griffey would accept a lesser defensive role, and to give up some of his AB's vs LHP's?
A. Depends on what else he's offered. If Tampa will let him play every day in CF, he'll go for that. You suppose they will?
Keep the eye on what the other teams are willing to do for him on PT.
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Q. Why take Junior if you could have Dunn?
A. Who said they were going to?
The GM's talk to lots of people. It's a musical chairs game. After Dunn goes elsewhere, and it's a piecemeal lineup led by a very questionable Adrian Beltre, then does Griffey improve your offense?
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2009, once Dunn is off the board, shapes up to be an extremely vanilla, humdrum season. After Dunn's gone, Griffey makes a lot of sense for one or two years.
Cheers,
Jeff