Your First Six Picks, AL-Only
==== ForrrrrrNevvvvver You---uuu--nnng Dept. ===
Wow!
I don't ever remember seeing the MC crowd do this, vote 3-vs-20 in the direction opposite of the one D-O-V was going. This is awesome. :- )
On an emotional level, I want to see Felix-Bedard-Morrow. I think Morrow could be Jim Palmer, right now.
Dealing the SP for the OF, for me, is a function of (1) the hitter being much lower-risk and (2) Young being probably a better prospect within his context than Morrow is within his. But yeah, it's practically impossible to get your mitts on a MLB-ready TOR starter of the magnitude of Morrow.
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In the first six rounds of an AL-only draft, it doesn't matter which guys you take, PROVIDED that all 6 of those picks -- or at minimum 5 -- give you full seasons of good production.
Go back after the season, and look at the top teams, and you will find team after team whose first 6 picks stayed healthy. Go look at the bottom teams, and you'll find team after team that had major issues getting production out of their top 6 picks. Injury, or pitchers having terrible years, or Richie Sexson weirdness, or something.
Not so many roto owners, even roto champs, are aware of this little gem. ... play your first six picks very safe! The 5% more or less you get from a pick means very little compared to the fact that you had six stars stay in action, while your rival had only three of his.
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This is why a Shandler draft strategy is so consistently effective: you grab 6 hitters, or 5 hitters and 1 closer, or maybe maybe maybe 5 hitters and a "safe" ace like Felix if he slides too bad... and you use K/BB ratio to grab value pitchers later in the draft.
What does this mean for the Morrow-Young scenario?
If you had 10 Delmon Youngs run the race, starting from this point, you'd get 8 impact players and you'd get their 100 runs created on the scoreboard, year after year. If you had 10 Brandon Morrows run the race, starting from this point, a good 4 of them would fail to deliver huge production over the next six-eight years. Maybe 5 or 6 of them.
It is on that basis, and on that basis only, that Dr. D would swap an ML-ready Cy-caliber TOR prospect, for an ML-ready, MVP-caliber outfielder. It locks in production.
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But I'd be holding my nose just like you amigos. Brandon Morrow is fun to watch and fun to root for. And if he, Felix, and Bedard are in a groove, so will be the M's.
There are major reasons to hang onto Morrow. For example, his upside impact is higher than Young's. It's one thing to have Danny Tartabull in left field; it's another thing to have Curt Schilling in your rotation. The dominating ace is, inherently, more important than the #4 hitter. That's if Morrow becomes such.
Even more to the point, IN THE SHORT TERM Morrow looks much more impactful. I'm thinking age 24, maybe even 25 before Young challenges for an MVP. But Brandon Morrow might very easily be as good, right now, as he's going to be later.
Honestly, I hope they keep Morrow. But if I had the steering wheel, I'd have to be the designated driver. :- ) Hitters are not risky.
Cheers,
Dr D