POTD Shin-Soo Choo
Jason leaked the rumor that we might be talking about flushing Morrow or Clement for "An AL Central outfielder with solid defensive skills and one strong offensive season under his belt." MC posters hooted, "Yeah, CHOO!" :- )
In 2008, Shin-Soo Choo hit .300/.400/.550 to the tune of a 146 OPS+ ... at the age of 25.
Just for fun, below is pasted my original projection of him, back in about April of the year 2006.
You can google other sources to compare, but here's the exec summary: won't hit enough for LF, can't field enough for CF, minors results don't mean anything, ML fringe.
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=== Dr. D's File Folder, April '06 ===
*****
John Sickels, in February, had Choo as a Grade C+ prospect (!!). Either John was unaware that Choo led the Texas League in Future Davenport Translations in 2004 (ahead of Kotchman and McPherson), or he underestimated the importance of Choo's performance.
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=== Oh Well Whatever Nevermind, Dept. ===
Choo in 2006 now:
.364/.447/.621 at Cheney Stadium
More BB's than K's
7 SB's in 17 games
40-homer power
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In 2005, Cindy and I went to a game in which Choo hit a pitched baseball over the Cheney CF fence … Now, granted, it was blowing out pretty good that day, but the Cheney CF fence is 85 feet high and at least 1,000 feet away from home plate. These occasional Mark McGwire-flashes, combined with Choo's "Steve Mann" pitching arm has –always– meant that Choo had projectable power.
Choo is a thinker, a contemplative type, and has needed some time to mesh his complex strike-zone thoughts. In the bigs, he will again. He's not the kind of guy to jell overnight.
But Choo has –always– been a genuine 5-tool player … not only the power, but also 30-SB speed, and a howitzer for an arm, and strike zone mastery with ability to make contact, and defense (speed in the OF).
Five plus tools AND performance. What more do you want?
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As with Jose Lopez, it's popular to say that …. wow, he sure became a different player lately, didn't he. Heh. …um, yeah: that's what projectable is talking about.
Watch Matt Tuiasosopo "become a different player," too, when his time comes.
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=== Steve Mann Theorem, Dept. ===
Steve Mann, roto king and ex-pitcher, pointed out when players have very powerful throwing arms, you should be alert for their developing home run power. Steve Finley was a player he correctly prophesied to develop HR power based on this principle.
Shin-Soo Choo, of course, was a better amateur pitcher than he was a hitter, with (reportedly) a 95 mph fastball as a teenager. This should cause us to be ALERT towards the possibility of Choo's developing excellent power.
For those who haven't seen him, Choo is also hardly a string bean out there. He's a pretty big guy and he runs like the wind.
See the comments for a list of similarities to Jim Edmonds. If you limit Choo's upside to less than that of the early-20's Edmonds, you're probably being stingy.
I'm not saying that you can bank a Jim Edmonds career, of course, but Edmonds is Choo's MLB prototype in the sense that Miguel Tejada is Jose Lopez' MLB prototype.
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=== This One's Special, Dept. ===
It's not that D-O-V likes everybody. We have absolutely no interest in TJ Bohn, or Rene Rivera, or Hunter Brown, or Joe Borchard, or Cha Seung Baek …. or anybody at Tacoma, other than players who could help the Mariners win a pennant some day.
That's part of the offbeat flavor of D-O-V. Every ballplayer is evaluated in terms of the same question. So we're a lot cooler on the TJ Bohns of the world than other analysts are, and a lot more interested in Choo and Johjima and Sexson than other analysts are.
There are no position players at Tacoma who will ever help the M's win a pennant, except Choo, certainly Asdrubal Cabrera, …. Adam Jones we'll see about, and maybe Rob Johnson could get significant PT for a contender some day. Johnson could be underrated.
Shin-Soo Choo is absolutely a Grade A prospect. He always was. Since 2004, any other evaluation of him sold BOTH sides short: his 5 tools and his performance at San Antonio.
Cheers,
Dr D