We're Gettin' It Figured Out
=== OF ===
The evolution of thought on the OF has been Bizarro In The 'Burbs this winter:
In a radio interview last month, GM Jack Zduriencik sounded like he was going to hand the starting left fielder's job to Endy Chavez. I asked Zduriencik about that a few days later and he assured me that no decisions had been made.
Just last week I saw a debate between SABRMatt and a *very* smart amigo, in which Matty had to try to "prove" (in essence) the point that Bobby Abreu would help a team more in LF than would Endy Chavez.
I'm all for fresh perspective, kids. :- ) But if the defensive fad has gotten us confused about whether Charlton Jimerson / Jason Ellison / Endy Chavez is worth more than Bobby Abreu, then we do indeed have to go out and watch some games.
It is quite clear that early on, the new regime had been talked into Endy Chavez by the 'net rats. Then, at some point, it hit Capt Jack that the Charlton Jimersons of the world don't make $10M a year because they ain't worth $10M. They ain't worth $2M, either.
Look, if it is the case that a backup CF is worth as much -- in LF -- as a no-glove #3 hitter, then everybody in baseball history failed to notice that fact. Connie Mack did, and Miller Huggins did, and Walter Alston did, and Casey Stengel did, and Dick Williams did, and Earl Williams did, and Whitey Herzog did, and Theo Epstein did.
There was never a time, in baseball history, when Branch Rickey paid $10M (so to speak) for some Endy Chavez or Charlton Jimerson or Stan Javier to go play LF. There have been MANY times in baseball history when a very smart man paid Raul Ibanez to play LF.
Now when I've got a theory (very fast no-hit CF's could be great in LF) that requires me to assume that EVERYBODY in baseball history was an idiot, I .... well, I don't close my mind to it. But I get very, very suspicious of my theory. It becomes "wrong until PROVEN right."
UZR hasn't "proven" anything. It is a valuable piece of evidence to factor into the discussion. But it's not a strong enough piece of evidence for me to decide that every GM and manager in history was a moron -- because they all would have taken Bobby Abreu over Endy Chavez.
Abreu could be going to the Hall of Fame. Chavez is going back to the bench where good-field, no-hit outfielders belong. Luckily, Capt. Jack came to his senses on this one before it was too late. :- )
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Still, none of this bodes well for Wladimir Balentien. A year ago, Balentien was the flavor-of-the-month for the prospect-picking gang who insisted he was a legit trade commodity and valuable piece -- maybe even as good as or better than Adam Jones with his bat. Right now, it's conceivable that Balentien could be claimed off waivers by spring's end.
Seattle -- we mean the org, not the fans -- is worse than the average franchise, when it comes to "tryouts" for prospects who weren't given the silver spoon.
They bring this guy up and then that guy, and if somebody (Lahair, let's say) impresses them, they give him another week. No. You use your judgment and you make a decision.
Shin-Soo Choo got 10 games in Seattle. He slugged .056. So he was gone.
Wlad Balentien has a VERRRRRY good chance of Choo'ing us again. And there's no reason for it, except that the M's faith didn't survive 250 AB's.
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But if the M's were to, say, pull off a trade like that ill-rumored Jarrod Washburn-Delmon Young deal, then Balentien looks like the odd man out.
Bring Delmon Young in, and Wlad does become superfluous at that point. But not when it's him vs Charlton Jimerson for starting left field. Slap me sideways.
As Geoff also points out, Wlad gives you speed at the #4 (#5) OF spot. So, no reason for panic. Wlad is going to hit .260/.330/.525 one day. Maybe pretty soon.
Cheers,
Dr D