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I don't think a choice to bypass Wlad is a definitive statement of anything.
The problem with evaluating ANY prospect is that it is a balance between paying attention to production and paying attention to what the coaches and scouts are seeing.
It is reasonable to assume that every trained eye in the Ms organization has poured over every bit of data, (and video), that Wlad produced during 2008. Let's say, for the sake of argument, that your top three scouts come forward, and all three say -- "the kid simply isn't EVER going to get it. Kids don't improve because they get older - they improve because they learn something -- and we've reached the conclusion that THIS kid is incapable of learning anything more from us. We don't believe it's going to make any difference if we give him 500 more ABs in the majors or 5000. He's a AAAA player, and we see no remaining potential to tap."
If you're the GM - what is your response to this report?
Do you:
A) Tell your scouts they are idiots who need to learn sabremetrics, because your charts tell you he SHOULD produce "X" in the majors during the next two years.
B) DFA Wlad -- and go and sign the first FA you can get for real cheap - (someone like Wilkerson perhaps).
C) Keep Wlad (while seeing if anyone else has interest in him), get a cheap veteran as a plug-in for the position, in case the scouts are right and continue looking for something better -- and let Wlad know that he's not going to just be handed the job in 2009, he's going to have to get it the old-fashioned way - he'll have to Eaaaarn it.
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You're trying to build the best team possible -- but you're also trying to get the most out of every player on your roster, too. Did handing Johjima $24 million in response to him stinking the place up solve HIS problems overnight? I don't think so. So, maybe, just maybe, since he played so poorly with no pressure on him during 2008, you do what you can to put pressure on him for 2009, and see what happens.
My own view is that I haven't seen anything the Ms have done to date that indicates they are not willing to give Wlad another look. In point of fact, it seems more like they are planning to give EVERYONE a look, and nobody should be expecting to waltz into their pre-determined positions. But, I think it would be a much LARGER mistake to paint a picture for Wlad that he's going to be getting 500+ ABs in 2009 just because he's currently the top OF spec in the org.