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Sandy...you're still missing the point.
You're still trying to do things on a linear scale...yes you subtracted out the baseline for Ks and outs and found that non-routine outs are still more common than "non-routine" Ks, but that's NOT how baseball works. Things don't accumulate linearly toward value...they accumulate on Pythagorean surfaces toward wins and losses...it is non-linear and you can't treat the data as though it should be linear as a result. Even if we take the last four years as gospel as you insist and say that the range in Ks and hits is about the same (250)...the percent of top performer is WAY different.
Worst K team usually around 900, best K team close to 1200...75% ratio
Worst hit/BIP team usually around .320, best usually around .280, 88% ratio
That's where we're starting here...that means that, in reality, it's not 5 out of every 20 outs that is non-routine...it's about 3 out of every 20 outs that is non-routine...and here's the tricky part...you're perfectly willing to look at the negative events for fielders (hit rate) but you ignored HR on the pitching side willingly in your example. They may be more range...but guess what...the range in HRs (take them out of the hit column) is about 100 from good to bad...and eahc HR is worth 1.4 runs! An order of magnitude more than each out (outs usually cost a batting team about 0.11 runs). The big things that pitchers can do to generate value (preventing HRs is a really big thing, preventing balls in play is a fairly big one too) outweigh the things fielders can do (convert a 70% out to a full out).
Here's where I come down on this, Sandy...your way of trying to simplify the problem so you can get at the core logic is a GREAT analysis technique 99% of the time, but it's going to cause you to be flat wrong when you try to apply that kind of thinking to a problem of this complexity (how important is pitching vs. fielding)...you NEED to see the WHOLE picture...you need to count the range of possible runs for both sides.
The range of walks is about 300 (that's about 100 runs different)
The range of HRs is about 100 (that's about 140 runs different)
The range of Ks is about 300 (that's about 90 runs different - .3 * 300 balls in play)
The range of HBP + WP is about 80 (that's about 25 runs different)
The range of defensive play-making rate is about 0.04 hit sper BIP (given a typical BIP count of 4000, that's about 160 runs different)
The range of 2B+3B per in play hit is about 0.1 (this ends up being worth as much as 50 runs...I did this math for Dr. D some months ago - ironically enough to justify why he was wrong that pitchers accounted for 70% or more of the defensive picture...LOL...now I'm using the same logic to refute a way lower estimate)
The range of DP/chance is relatively small, but let's give this credit for possibly being worth 25 runs in extreme cases
The range of SB and other baserunning runs is on the order of +/- 40 runs
On the pitching side, I get a much bigger potential influence than you seem to believe possible...I get something like 350 for the pitching side vs. 275 for the fielders...which is more or less right in line with my assertion that pitching is 60% of the defensive game.

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