Add new comment

But where is you adjustment for the "routine" strikeout?
Back in the 30s, the league average for Ks was 4 -- today it is 7.
Today, the bottom of the pile stinkiest pitcher allowed to hold a job get 4/9.
Let's say for the sake of argument that 15 of the 20 fielding outs are "givens". That leaves 5 outs per game that "matter".
Well, why don't we also say that those base-line "worst" pitcher Ks are "given", also? If so, then we get 3 outs that matter - and we end up with a ration of 5 field to 3 pitcher -- STILL giving defense more impact on run prevention.
=======
One of the underlying problems I see with many of the defense/pitching paradigms is that I don't see any adjustment being even attempted (outside of your Matrix), to adjust for the fact that either side can skew the results for the other.
Almost all the baseline stats created today are "per nine" stats. HR/9; BB/9; K/9. The divisor is a constant and gives "truthiness" to the results. The problem is that the starting point should be "per plate appearance". Because the strength of the defense or pitching CHANGES the chances for the other side.
When the defense produces 300 extra outs, that's 300 fewer plate appearances for the pitchers. So, an improved defense, with an IDENTICAL pitching performance is going to drive the K/9, HR/9 and BB/9 numbers *ALL* down for the pitchers. Conversely, a horrid defense can create a similarly skewed picture in the opposite direction -- allowing 300 more hits to drop is 300 more chances for a pitching staff to rack of Ks. The K/9, HR/9 and BB/9 numbers should ALL go up as defense wanes. And the problem here is that while those are the TTO numbers -- the "good" direction for Ks is opposite that for HR and BB.
==========
Well, your 750 to 1100 range is patently wrong. Look at Ks BY DEFENSE. The last AL team to fan fewer than 900 batters in a season was KC in 2004, (887). The range from best to worst pitching Ks (AL) is a lot closer to 250 than the 350 you imply. (And AL is a cleaner analysis, because you don't have pitcher Ks complicating matters).
My glance at hits allowed versus Ks rung up does NOT support any significant edge for Ks. The last two seasons, the hit-range has been wider than the K range. Prior to that -- it's been random which range is wider.