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Doc...
Jamie Moyer is not what I would call a star. He was a very good pitcher in 2001 (and overall of course) but he's certainly not an ace...he's the kind of guy you like to have #3 in your rotation. Chief Garcia had a good year in 2001 and DNRA backs this up...but the entire rest of the Mariner starting staff with the exception of Joel Pineiro's partial season was quite poor.
DNRA+ figures for that rotation go like this:
Garcia: 121
Moyer: 111
Sele: 96
Halama: 75
Abbott: 84
Pineiro: 175 (but in just 70-ish innings)
Doc...I would be inclined to accept the possibility that the Mariners' DER in 2001 was caused partially by great pitching *IF* the DNRA figures looked anomalous in that season...in other words...if I saw these guys moving in and out of other teams...in front of different defenses...and in 2001 they seemed to be getting shortchanged...but that's not what happened.
Moyer's 111 was right in line with a typical Moyer season...he had a few 120s and a few 100s in his peak...his average season was a 108.
Garcia's 121 was a CAREER YEAR! He was never better than that season...in fact he was never CLOSE to that season...his second best year, he hit 112.
Halama's career looks like this:
1998 NL HOU 96 82
2000 AL SEA 494 89
2001 AL SEA 320 75
2002 AL SEA 301 104
2003 AL OAK 326 86
2004 AL TBA 355 93
2005 AL BOS 137 80
2005 NL WAS 64 92
But his peripherals in 2001 explain the drop.
Abbott's career looks like this:
1990 AL MIN 106 79
1991 AL MIN 136 83
1992 AL MIN 33 72
1993 AL CLE 55 66
1998 AL SEA 75 131
2000 AL SEA 532 114
2001 AL SEA 473 84
2002 AL SEA 76 46
2003 AL KCA 142 89
2004 NL PHI 149 67
2004 AL TBA 143 79
The anomaly was 2000 here...his career DNRA+ was lower than his 2001 DNRA+
Here's Sele:
Sele 1993 AL BOS 334 110
Sele 1994 AL BOS 427 123
Sele 1995 AL BOS 99 107
Sele 1996 AL BOS 484 106
Sele 1997 AL BOS 538 86
Sele 1998 AL TEX 657 116
Sele 2000 AL SEA 624 114
Sele 2001 AL SEA 625 96
Sele 2002 AL ANA 458 74
Sele 2003 AL ANA 366 80
Sele 2004 AL ANA 399 91
Sele 2005 AL SEA 343 71
Sele pitched in front of some AWFUL defenses and some great ones...his DNRA+ curve looks like a classic pattern of aging for a mediocre pitcher. There's no indication that the Mariners' pitching staff is getting short changed in 2001 compared to their normals...separating pitching and defense the way I do WORKS...it smooths apparent fluctuations in performance quite well...it never seems to fail to make career production curves look more natural (with the expected moves in skill caused by aging, injuries and the like). You've been staring at bubblegum cards so long that I think you have yourself completely convinced that fielding can't caused an entire team to overperform...the numbers back me up here though. The Mariners in 2001 were average with their K rate (bolstered by a phenomenal pen), they gave up way too many HRs for playing at Safeco Field (that rotation is an EXTREME flyball rotation...Sele, Halama, Moyer, Abbott, and Pineiro were all flyball pitchers in 2001. Garcia was neutral to slightly flyball heavy. It makes sense that such a staff (high contact, high FB rate) would give up too many longballs, especially given the low walk rate (they got too much of the plate a lot of the time). There's just no way around this...the '01 Mariners had average pitching and spectacular defense.