PTI on Russell Branyan
The muscled young toughs of the barrio protest that Russell Branyan maybe CAN hit lefties. Good stuff, amigos. :- ) Even while spray-painting my warnings about bringing RB into the LHP house, we were laughing wondering whether half the local monstas would argue that maybe he can hit lefties.
Maybe he can. Wouldn't that be cool, to pull a .380 OBP, 35-homer, 110-RBI star off the shelf at Branyan's salary... If Oakland can do it with Jack Cust, why not us with Russell Branyan?
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1. If a thoughtful analyst, let's say Don Wakamatsu or one of you amigos, believes that Branyan could do fine vs LHP given a fair chance... I do respect that. Maybe Wok is thinking exactly as you guys are.
So, fine, will spray-paint in smaller font, in deference to youse guys' interest in seeing what happens when Branyan gets his chance.
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2. And as you guys are quick to argue back, Branyan has a career .285 OBP vs LHP but a pretty good SLG against them. In other words, he gives you blizzards of outs but also stings lefties with homers. San-Man argues that this creates an overall .730 OPS effect that is completely acceptable (as opposed to the Greek tragedy that Dr. D forecast).
True, true ... most guys look weak if you just look at them with the platoon disadvantage. A lot of good lefty hitters would show 730 or worse, if you just talked vs LHP.
We acknowledge San-Man's most fundamental point, here, that Branyan's weakness vs LHP shouldn't be overemphasized. :daps:
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3. But let's talk 730 OPS's.
As a graduate of the 1970's Kingdome, I loathe [.285 OBP's with homers to compensate]. Steve Balboni never did my numb backside any good up there on the steel planks of the Kingdome.
The .730 OPS may look all right, but if Branyan is actually going to show you .200/.280/.450, I predict that you will toss your cookies by June. :- )
That's going to be a whale of a lot of outs, right in the middle of rallies. Time after time after time. With a few homers thrown in. You won't like the look of it, it sez here. Neither will the W/L column.
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4. Should we compare Branyan's .730 OPS to what the Mariners as a team did in 2008, while losing 102 games? Or should we compare it to what Chris Shelton / healthy Mike Sweeney would hit, at 1B, with the platoon advantage?
Let's say that it turns out that Branyan could defend himself a little bit against lefties. The point of reference here is still Mike Sweeney *with the platoon advantage.* How in the world would RB ever outhit that?
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5. But you amigos are thinking that at 33, he can develop his game against lefties. :- ) Here's the real killer, Dmitri:
169 - Strikeouts per season, Russ Branyan, career
Branyan is a TTO player. He whiffs by the bucketload. Those 169 K's are WITH the platoon advantage: he fans 170 times a year VERSUS RIGHTIES.
Branyan's swing, and deep counts, and pitch stalking, are going to have him constantly in 2-strike counts against lefties who can leisurely decide whether to butcher him with curves or fastballs -- exactly as Kershaw did last night.
In other words, the stats show signs of LHP-hitting potential, maybe (the 450 SLG). But does Russ Branyan show that potential in the batter's box? I argue no. Pitch-stalking isn't going to work against lefties who gleefully pump sidearm strikes in there against a guy who's barely ever seen them.
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6. I like Branyan -- have argued for acquiring him, in Safeco, for three years.
But let's not get carried away about his level of talent. Jack Cust has hit for a 140 OPS+ the last two years. Russell Branyan's career OPS+ is 109 -- in 2,300 PA's. Branyan isn't a star in camoflage, like Cust was. He's an underrated hitter who can play major league baseball.
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I love TTO guys, but a lefty-on-lefty pitch-stalking game can get pretty ugly. The good news is, Branyan's 90-100 OPS+ against LHP's might turn into 100-110 in Safeco, since the park favors lefties so much.
If Wok, and the smart guys in the barrio, want to see Branyan get a chance against LHP's, I respect it. But I want it on the record that I predicted a very avoidable train wreck on this one. ;- )
Cheers,
Dr D