RRS Better Use That Hook
Quick puzzle. Had you noticed that Rowland-Smith got positively smeared by lefty hitters last season? Can you explain that? Give it a look, and after you've come up with your own idea, check the solution to today's Jumble, below the signoff :- )
He ran a 70 OPS+ against righty hitters, but a 150 OPS+ (!!) vs lefties. Sometimes this is the case for LHP's if they throw the deadfish change, because the change drops down into a lefty's wheelhouse. But Rowland-Smith doesn't work that sector of the zone, and he's got a nice hook as his second pitch.
In fact, I'd never NOTICED that lefties were hitting RRS -- but here you go: RH were .228/.291/.366 vs RRS, which is about what you'd get from your backup center fielder (or from your starting corner outfielders these days, I guess). Lefties raked him to the tune of .310/.390/.480, which would be a Bobby Abreu line from the glory days.
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=== Givin' 'Em the Hook ===
Skipped the WBC. The consequences of that decision: he's (apparently) a major league starting pitcher now. He's got to be feeling like grabbing a girl on the sidewalk and dancing pinwheels with her down the block.
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Was interested to read that the Mariners are not concerned about RRS' velocity, despite the TV radars showing 84-87 mph. Maybe this means that everybody knows he'll be back up to 89-91 once the bell rings.
Of course, I doubt that very seriously, but also take the Mariners' viewpoints seriously, even more so this year. so, huh.
RRS had a 6-IP, 2-ER tuneup a couple days ago. Encouraging? No encouragement whatsoever for a Shandler PQS disciple. We don't look at earnies; we ignore the R and ER completely and look at K/IP, K/BB, and HR. Ryan fanned only 2 men in 6 innings. Ouch. For everybody else, it's "what more can he do?!". For me, the outing was a trumpet call to go scour the waiver wire if he was on my fantasy-baseball roster.
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His last two starts, we do notice that RRS continues to freeze hitters badly with his excellent curveball -- despite having no fastball whatsoever to get them looking heater in the first place. Rowland-Smith's hook is his lifeline, as long as he continues to top out at 86 -- not that throwing 86 with a nice hook did John Halama or Dave Fleming any good.
But, still, RRS should beef up his CB % from 15% to 30-35%,. Just drop that hook in there for strike one after strike one. Last year, Rowland-Smith threw 15% curves, 15% changes and the rest heaters, according to Fangraphs. But some pitchers throw over 30% curves.
Quick, what two things do the below pitchers have in common?
Ben Sheets
A.J. Burnett
Ricky Nolasco
John Lackey
Josh Beckett
Brett Myers
Roy Halladay
Justin Verlander
The answer is, (1) They are the eight active pitchers who throw the most curve balls in the major leagues (sort by pitch type and then click CB% descending), and (2) they're real good.
Ricky Nolasco threw a scant 51% fastballs last year, and no cutters, to go 15-8, 3.52 with a 4.5 control ratio. John Lackey throws only 59% fastballs. Ryan Rowland-Smith ought to make it his goal to lead the league in strike-one curveballs.
Johjima will be more than willing. We'll see what happens. Throwing 87 with a crackling curve, RRS could scuffle to a 100 ERA+, maybe. That would make him the M's #3 starter.
Cheers,
Dr D
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Solution: this one's just the BABIP. RRS ran the same K/BB/IP lines against both sides of the plate, but the balls just rolled through with lefties hitting.
What's even weirder is that in 2007, RRS was better vs lefties -- check the K/BB's -- but LH scored an astronomical .382 BABIP against him then too.
Baseball's funny sometimes, ain't it? Is it tough for infielders to read RRS' pitches?!