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Nice numbers, Taro.
I was going to ask the rhetorical question - "How long do you wait for a young hitter to put it together before moving on to the next one?" Your numbers would indicate there is strong reason to be optimistic about F-Gut, (my own optimism had been formerly based on a generally positive view of "Z" in terms of baseball knowledge and prospect development).
The thing that I'm wondering about with Endy is this ... could he actually be the second coming of Raul Ibanez. Ibanez was, in fact, a #4 OF until age 30. He didn't break .800 until age 29. (No, I don't mean this LITERALLY - but in the sense that Ibanez was a guy whose stats said he wasn't worth giving PT to -- only to become an All-Star in his 30s).
Ibanez
AGE - AB - OPS
26 --- 98 - .699
27 -- 227 - .734
28 -- 140 - .630
29 -- 279 - .847
30 -- 497 - .883
31 -- 608 - .799
32 -- 481 - .825
Endy Chavez
AGE - AB - OPS
24 -- 125 - .785
25 -- 483 - .648
26 -- 502 - .688
27 -- 116 - .562
28 -- 353 - .779
29 -- 150 - .705
30 -- 270 - .638
31 -- 54 -- .878
Endy got two full years at age 25/26, and couldn't cut it. No argument there. He's NEVER had the power potential that Ibanez had, (and still doesn't). BUT, both did have similar nice looking eye ratios. Is it "possible" that Endy is a smarter player today - and that he (and Ibanez) share a common trait - that production goes up with regular playing time?
This is, of course, mostly conjecture. But, Endy in 2006 and 2008 played the same number of games. But he got almost 100 more PAs in 2006, (and posted a .779 OPS). There could be some chicken and egg here -- he loses playing time BECAUSE he's struggling. But, if he can hit .295 (he hit .306 in 2006), and if he retains any of his current spike in patience, (he's 63 patience, while 41 is his rock steady norm), and manages a 105 ISO (career number is 98), then you're looking at a: .295/.345/.400 hitter -- a .745 producer with plus-plus defense.
Is *THAT* enough to warrant continued starting status?
Personally, I think as long as he stays in the 2-hole, he's going to continue to benefit from a production boost where Ichiro in front and B B and the Kid behind make him 'better' than his ability.
But, too many parts of Endy's games are off his career tracks to do anything more than guess. His ISO is down 24 points, while his patience is up 22. This "smells" like he's approaching hitting differently than before. But things often go bonkers during hitting streaks.
But, ONCE HE SWOONS, I would agree with the assessment that the team is better served to crowbar more PT for the talent of tomorrow -- and Endy is the leading candidate to surrender that PT. I'm still afraid of the potential ramifications of Wlad in left, (no real sense of how defensively committed Wlad is, yet). But, I think to keep the chemistry thing rolling, you've gotta juggle kittens -- because you don't want to serve up a helping of veteran entitlement, NOR do you want to send a message that the first slump you run into means you're benched. It's a razor thin line to walk to hold onto the current magic. Thus far, I'm liking everything I see from Wak in this regard.
I'm actually growing more confident that he'll likely make the very types of changes that Doc is supporting - and do it in the proper time frame that limit the dangers of unintended consequences.