By The Numbers, Bottom Half of the Inning
101 - Games the 2009 Seattle Mariners would win at their present pace
87 - How many games would Dr. D guess the M's will actually win (aided by hot start and Wakamatsu)
.241/.293/.352 - Offensive production producing these 101 pro-rated victories
.248/.309/.331 - Average offense in NL in the 1915 season, deadball era (27 homers per team per year)
BURKE - Who did the M's have playing 1B on Thursday afternoon
YES - Could the M's use an Adam Dunn (.476 OBP, .609 SLG right now)
NO - Does that mean the M's cannot win the World Series in 2009
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71 - What is the M's team OPS+ right now
94 - What is the approximate weighted average of the below numbers
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116 - What is Ichiro's career OPS+
076 - What is Chavez' career OPS+
101 - What was Junior's OPS+ last year (138 lifetime)
106 - What is Beltre's career OPS+
110 - What is Branyan's career OPS+
085 - What is Lopez' career OPS+ (104 last season)
091 - What is Johjima's career OPS+
087 - What is Frenchy's career OPS+
085 - What is Gutierrez' career OPS+
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Without any doubt - Will the M's offense get better, when the hitters return to career norms
DEFINITELY - Is the above a weak lineup by pennant-race standards
0 - Who is the M's MOTO-worthy bat
Vlad, Abreu - Who are the Angels' MOTO bats
Giambi, Holliday, Cust - Who are the A's MOTO bats (all over 128 OPS+ last year)
Hamilton, Kinsler - Who are the Rangers' hitting stars (both over 130 OPS+ last year)
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The Mariners have had an unsustainably bad offense. It's just a couple of weeks in cold weather; the bats will heat up. You're not going to see ANY team run an OPS+ in the 70's; the very worst OPS+ last year was 88, by Oakland. As a general rule, even an expansion AL offense would clock in at 85. So, at 73, the M's are obviously way below the level they'll finish at.
But this ballclub does not have a single MOTO-worthy bat, and that's unusual. To be fair, once in a while a team bucks the trend, and wins with a lineup full of no-names, like the 2005 White Sox. But for every LCS finalist with no stars in its lineup, there are a bunch of teams who do have stars in their lineups :- )
The M's have a handful of 100-110 bats and a handful of light hitters -- and that's what the 1980's Mariners had.
The offense will get improve by itself, but after it does, the question is whether it will have #3 and #4 hitters to balance out the light hitters in the lineup...
For now, I'd say they need to realize that they're not going to be able to afford to select glove-first players over bat-first players within their own current rosters and lineups. For example, a Wlad-Chavez/FGut-Ichiro outfield could be used in two games in Anaheim.
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10-6 - What is the M's current record
7.5 - 8.5 - What would M's record be per "component offensive and defensive events" (BP's W2/L2)
7-9 - What would M's record be if you adjusted for "component events" and for early strength of opposition (BP's W3/L3)
NO - Should M's wait for actual 6-game losing streak to occur, before realizing they need to improve
YES - Are M's capable of winning the 2009 pennant
Felix, Bedard - What are the reasons the M's are capable of advancing to the 2009 World Series
FLAWED - What is Dr. D's assessment of the other 3 AL West teams
3.5 - What is the M's lead in the division
1 - How many ML-caliber starting pitchers will the M's face this weekend in Anaheim
Rock on,
Dr D