Erik Bedard the best pitcher in baseball?
Sandy-Raleigh, the flagship analyst at Mariner Central:
Doc: “I’m not sure Erik Bedard isn’t the best pitcher in baseball”
Sandy: “I am. He is.”
At this point, I think “if healthy”, Bedard is better than Santana. The combination of stuff and knowing how to use it puts him ahead of any other hurler in the game today, IMHO.
I also think that he adjusts his game to get the most out of his talent based on the spate of variables around him - primarily, how good is his defense. With a good defense, he gets more aggressive, which RAISES his K-rate, lowers his walk rate, but costs him a couple of extra dingers. With a bad defense, he nibbles a bit more, lowering his K-rate, raising his walk rate, but saving some HRs.
I also think the ‘fragile’ tag is reasonable. Not that he’s a “wuss” for throwing only 100, but that his game requires him to be on the very edge of what his body can take, so he’s regularly at risk of tweaking something.
I also think that if he doesn’t figure out a slightly better balance for pushing himself, his career could crumble. On the other hand, if he figures out a slightly more efficient effort/output mixture, he could be dominanting for another 10 years. The line between Pedro and Unit for Bedard is razor thin. Thus far, he’s been more Pedro, but I am not convinced he cannot move in the direction of Unit if things break right for him.
Bedard is a bit fragile, and that has to be taken into account.
Although, as Justin-Baltimore advised us back before the trade, so far the last several years, it's always been (1) an unrelated string of minor injuries and (2) Bedard not wanting to pitch for a loser. He had the TJ back in 2002, but that's obviously no issue.
You could easily visualize some team giving Bedard $100M -- and then Bedard becoming a chronically-injured SP. There IS that risk.
Is that risk any higher with Bedard than with, say, Josh Beckett, A.J. Burnett, or a dozen other high-performance Ferraris? Johann Santana had serious elbow questions at the time the Mets committed to him. These teams take risks with Cy Young aces who have health questions.
It almost becomes a philosophical problem. Those who love guarantees are going to pass. Those who are not afraid to bet into the pot, are going to see a big opportunity. The city of Seattle is probably the most risk-averse city in baseball, both in the front office and in the fan base. It's one reason they went out and bought three of the most Shandler-reliable SP veterans in baseball: with Silva, Washburn, and Batista, you had more control of your future than you'd have with almost any other pitchers. Their REL scores were off the charts.
Alas, you can get killed doing anything, including staying in bed with the curtains drawn...
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Hey Sandy: you just had Bedard come into your office and say, either sign him by the end of May or forget it. His agent wants 7/$160M. You counter with what as your walk-away top offer?
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=== Silentpadna ===
Once again it feels warm-and-cozy to know that our partner-in-crime doesn't think Dr. D is crazy and the rest of the world sane.
Why in the world it was EVER controversial to give up 3 hot prospects for a Cy Young starter is baffling to me. Padna would do it again. Dr. D wishes that we COULD, right now, for a #3 starter...
Padna, fangraphs.com has Bedard as worth $18.4M in 2006 and $22.2M in 2007 ... and $4.8M so far in 10% of this season. You would pay him what? Santana money?
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=== IQ ===
As far as adjusting his game ... agree there too. I personally think that Bedard's refusal to risk his health (as much as some guys would) is nothing more than intelligence on his part.
Sandy talks, alertly, about "the stuff and knowing how to use it." Nobody ever talks about Bedard's pitchability -- his feel for when to pull the string, the way he works his FB around the zone, the fact that the hitters always seem to guess wrong. In some ways, he's Jamie Moyer if Moyer had great stuff.
We've talked about the Steve Carlton echoes: great lefty hook, forget-you attitude, strong silent scowling type, icy-cool craftsmanship in a big game.
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I'm biased: I like the red ears off the field, the icy cool on it, the pitchability, the ten strikeouts a game, and the southpaw delivery. Erik Bedard is my idea of a franchise pitcher.
Interesting to see one of my favorite analysts call him the best starting pitcher.