.300 - .400 - .500 at second base?
=== PTI, Ackley at 2B ===
Mt Grizzly finds the idea decidedly too optimistic:
I love the optimistic angle as much as the next guy but...if the only examples that one can find where this type of move has worked are HOF-level guys, then I'm not sure how applicable it is.
Mariner Central posters reply, in the main, that you're not losing much even if Ackley cannot play the infield. If he can play 2B, you're max'ing out his value; even if not, he's still the #2, goes the volley.
True dat. But in Grizzle's defense, my argument was that you are PROBABLY looking at an infielder when you draft Ackley. So lay down your clipboards and forget about the #3-8 candidates in the draft.
Grizzle just doesn't agree. He thinks you project Ackley as an outfielder, with conversations about the infield "interesting but not that relevant."
Grizzle's visceral reaction to Ackley's position switch is that you're talking about extra-gifted talents when you're talking about the Roses and Biggios who made it work out WELL.
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Note, in passing, that our Rose & Biggio examples weren't "proofs" that Dustin Ackley or any other college player can be put in the infield. They're illustrative only.
A picture's worth 1,000 words, and the Paul Molitors of the world paint us some pretty pictures. But the Willie Bloomquists and Mark McLemores of the world move around the diamond too. How many clubs don't have an IF/OF utility guy on their benches? Baseball's baseball. Grab a glove. ;- )
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Dr. D? Microphone? My own visceral reaction -- that is, my gut reaction, my judgment as to what is important here and what is not -- is this:
1) For very young players, position switches aren't as big a deal as we think they are. Half the guys the Mariners draft move all over the place.
2) Ackley's college coach watches him practice every day.
His coach watches him move, knows him as a person, has a FEEL for his break on the ball on a grounder at first base, etc etc. And his UNC coach is NOT concluding that Ackley can PLAY second base; his coach judges that Ackley can be a SPECIAL defender at SECOND base.
It's kind of like John Thompson warning the NBA that Patrick Ewing was not a defense-only center before they drafted him. Thompson watched the guy practice.
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Capt Jack and Dr. D seem to be tuned in on the same frequency here: if Ackley's coach is that impressed with him, then wow.
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=== At the Plate, Dept. ===
As you know, Dr. D is huge on Ackley's lefthandedness. As a wannabe baseball historian, I don't think you can emphasize LH/RH too much in Safeco Field. Again, it was James who pointed out that a scan from 1921 (?) to 1964 shows the value of LH power in a park like Yankee or Safeco.
Two words: Russell Branyan. What if we had three or four? Instead, we've got seven RH free swingers who never strike out, never walk and never hit homers. :- )
In other words, LH is more than a thumb-on-the-scale for me. I take WORSE players if they hit lefthanded -- I take Branyan over Jay Buhner in Safeco. If Dr. D were GM, you'd consider him LH-obsessive and you would be complaining about it all the time. My backup catcher would be whichever lefty bat happened to be kicking around the fringes of the league.
And Ackley ain't a worse player.
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Also, it's hard to find LH middle infielders, since they obviously have to have strong right arms. Ackley's the prospect of a whole extra lefty in my lineup.
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Dr. D is also huge on Ackley's eye ratio: it is 2:1 the WRONG way for pitchers. This is the kind of walk ratio that might conceivably translate to a 1:1 type ratio in the bigs -- and with Ackley's CT%, it suggests a .400'ish OBP.
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People wouldn't be so high on Ackley if he projected to hit 4 homers a year. This is a guy who breaks metal bats on home runs. ;- ) Scouts visualize him, going forward, as comparable to Chase Utley, who hits 32 homers per season, not 4 homers per sason.
Ackley's "modest" projection is something along the lines of .300/.370/.420, which is to say Dustin Pedroia in a neutral park. His "upside" is the legit .300/.400/.500 player, and if at second base that is an MVP candidate. Passing on him could be an Evan Longoria type pass, the kind where you're kicking yourself the rest of your life for not taking him.
I haven't seen Ackley play, but his player template is very exciting. He would be my favorite Mariner draft pick at least since Cruz Jr.
Cheers,
Dr D