Trade Adrian Beltre Right Now
... well, the moment that somebody coughs up a young player that you think you can win your next pennant with. :- )
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Sandy points out that the Brad Nelson signing could improve positioning unto an Adrian Beltre trade:
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In checking out his fielding stats from baseball cube, it seems that he's played 25 games at 3B during '07 and '08.
This could be a precursor move to trading Beltre.
Beltre has a resume that makes him a perfect candidate for a change-of-scenery rebirth. But, who plays third?
Well, the concept of moving Branyan over to 3B is the most obvious move. But, if you trade away Beltre, regardless of who you move around to cover third, you create a vacuum somewhere else.
Trade Beltre -- bring up Carp to play 1B, Branyan moves to 3B.
But, what's the fall-back if Carp cannot handle major league pitching? A good GM is thinking three moves ahead. Nelson is a pick up that can plug a hole BEFORE you make that hole. That concept of "if you can't get the job done -- then maybe HE can ..." is a major change from the Bavasi era...
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If you became an Assistant to the Regional Manager on Royal Brougham, one of the "invisible laws" that would surprise you is: GM's spend a lot of time thinking about their stoploss.
It's all too easy for them to get caught out with 7.50-ERA starting pitchers doing a carousel through the #4-5 slots, or with a .142-hitting shortstop and no way to plug the dike, or with an injury at catcher and nobody who can call a major league game, or with an injury during the game and Jamie Burke having to play shortstop. :- ) GM's have to make sure that the ballclub isn't EMBARRASSED on Friday night, before they try to make sure they have a chance to win...
As Sandy notes, Zduriencik's ML-ready options are proliferating like tribbles. From the chessplayer's standpoint, options are power.
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Tuiasosopo would absolutely have been the man into Beltre's position; the Mariners actually kept Tui on the 25-man roster even to start THIS season. But now, you need a stoploss, a placeholder. Here's hoping that Nelson fits into a Beltre trade scenario.
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=== Fenway or Wrigley?, Dept. ===
If you haven't realized that Adrian Beltre has been killing the ballclub in 2009, then perhaps you're too infatuated with pretty defense. ;- )
Beltre is hitting .211/.242/.316 -- a 47 OPS+.
Willie Bloomquist's career line is much better than that: .267/.327/.330. Exactly how many games would you expect to win, with Willie hitting cleanup and playing third base?
We don't know what Beltre WILL do. What he HAS done, for the first 1/4 of the season, is provide the Mariners with a pitcher-like* hitting line in the cleanup spot.
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Again, Safeco drags RH hitters down over time.
748 - Beltre's OPS on the road, this season
327 - Beltre's OPS at home, this season
I've seen Beltre hit rope after Safeco rope that hung up for the left fielder. It happens about once a game. And as it does with almost all RH hitters in this town, he starts to press.
6:28 -- Beltre's eye ratio this season
50:90 -- Beltre's eye ratio last season
Adrian is flailing away, trying to hit the ball hard enough to find some grass or some seats, and he cannot do it. You need to get him out of here, and you need to get him out of here AS SOON AS POSSIBLE.
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=== Fish Or Cut Bait, Dept. ===
It would be one thing if you planned on keeping Beltre for the next five years. But you don't. You don't want to know what the next numbers in Beltre's hitting sequences are.
Every time I read something from a different city, I read about what an awesome player Beltre is, and wow, if only we could trade for him. In some other park -- Wrigley or even Fenway -- there's no telling how much better Adrian would look. And other cities are WELLLLLL aware of this.
By the way, b-ref.com's formulas have Cubbie HOF'er Ron Santo as Adrian Beltre's most-comparable player :- ) and the Cubs need a third baseman.
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Zduriencik, admirably, was willing to powerflush J.J. Putz in a heartbeat. When he got the player he wanted to build around (Gutierrez). We're (fairly) confident that if and when Zduriencik gets a player he thinks he can win his next pennant with, that he'll deal Beltre.
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James recently compared Beltre to Brooks Robinson. Huh!
That puts a new light on things. But Brooks couldn't have played in Safeco, either.
Cheers,
Dr D