Russell Branyan has earned $7,600,000 so far this year
Sandy, as always, provides a crunchy return of serve on the wisdom of signing Branyan. And it's a good thing, too, because it's an IMPORTANT decision for the Mariners. Either way. I'm sure their saber staff will cut this one into a googolplex pieces.
First off, Dr. D is talking a 2-year extension, plus club option with $1-2M buyout, not 3 years hard on the barrelhead. My first post didn't say that. The root cause of this error was that my first post was at 4:00 in the morning. :- ) But as you know, the secondary cause is just that my post was written by a moron.
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Q: BRANYAN ISN'T LIKELY TO HIT WELL IN 2011 AT AGE 35, MUCH LESS IN 2012 AT AGE 36. SEE THE FOLLOWING COMP:
Player - age - OPS
Boone - 32 - .950
Boone - 33 - .801
Boone - 34 - .902
Boone - 35 - .740
Boone - 36 - .639 and done
A: Boone's a good comp in two senses: Gillick-Zduriencik, and the fact that they're both late bloomers. But in comp'ing out Branyan, we want lefty TTO guys, right?
A: Talking not to Sandy, who knows this, but to cyber-Seattle generally: IN MAJOR-LEAGUE BASEBALL, YOU HAVE TO OVERPAY FOR THE LAST YEAR OF A CONTRACT IF YOU WANT TO SIGN THE PLAYER.
The good news is that you get to underpay in the first year.
Look, if a player gives you seasons worth $18M ... $14M ... $9M ... and $0M ... he signs for 4 years / $24M ... why does everybody freak out about the overpay in year four?! Why doesn't the overperformance in year one count?
Listen carefully and you'll hear GM's actually say this. All the time. We knew the last two years would be an overpay, but we wanted to make the run in the first two years.
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Q: BRANYAN WILL PROBABLY DECLINE, AND EVEN IF HE DOESN'T, OLDER PLAYERS ARE INJURY RISKS.
A: Three words: margin of error.
Check it out, kiddies. If Russ Branyan continued to hit at his current pace according to Fangraphs.com, then this season he would be worth
:drumroll:
$23,500,000.
... Branyan has ALREADY earned $7.6M this year! His agent is well aware of this fact. And the question is whether we should give him $9M for the entire next season?
Assuming that Branyan "drops off" to his 2008 levels, he will earn only $5.2M ... in his first 132 AB's. Because that's what Branyan was worth in 2008: $5M -- in one-quarter of a season.
Scale him back to (say) .250/.340/.525 and you're talking a $12-15M player. Players like Raul Ibanez, Russell Branyan, Adam Dunn, and other players with unfair knocks often come at 50 cents on the dollar. That's what we're talking about doing here. Giving Branyan 50 cents on the dollar.
$9M for Branyan, if he hit like THIS, would be 30-40 cents on the dollar. But if he hit like 2007-08, it would still only be 50-60 cents on the dollar.
Let the guy decline. Let him have a terrible last year of the contract. You're still getting a terrific value on the overall deal.
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Q: THE M'S ARE HIP-DEEP IN FIRST BASEMAN/DH TYPES.
A. True dat. Perfectly legit complaint.
ALL major league stars who play 1B and LF are less valuable than stars in the middle of the diamond. Albert Pujols, even, prevents you from exploiting a big bat in the minors.
Branyan takes no more of a value hit, for playing 1B, than do Prince Fielder, Adam Dunn, or Justin Morneau his ownself. You wish they all played center field.
Everybody's hip-deep in 1B candidates, but the M's have a real shortage of players who can actually hit like #4 hitters. Russell Branyan can. I'll take the production.
We're not talking five years. But when Bret Boone suddenly decides to start hitting 37 homers, ya don't flush him after year one. You take three years' worth. ;- )
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The problemo isn't whether the M's are risking a lot, paying (say) 2/$18M plus a club option. The problemo is whether Russell Branyan would accept it. Better hope he does.
Cheers,
Dr D