Felix' 300 Wins
The Big Unit wrapped up #300 and they had Tim Kjurkian on to trowel on the praise. He said two things that caught our ears:
1. That the Unit is one of the 15 or 20 best pitchers ever, and the third best lefty ever, behind Grove and (um) Warren Spahn.
2. That the next pitcher to win 300 games is absolutely not active in the major leagues right now.
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=== DAMNING WITH FAINT PRAISE Dept. ===
Almost as good as Warren Spahn! Wow, Bobby Sue, imagine that.
First of all, Spahn pitched 21 seasons times a 118 ERA+. Johnson has pitched (so far) 22 seasons times a 138 ERA+. I can see where you'd get confused as to which was the greater pitcher.
The difference between a 118 OPS+ or ERA+, and a 138, is exactly the difference between Raul Ibanez (116) and Ken Griffey Jr. (137). Imagine somebody saying, wow, that Junior was really something. Third-best outfielder the Seattle Mariners ever had, behind only Ichiro and Raul Ibanez. That would make as much sense as putting Randy Johnson behind Warren Spahn.
Spahn was a guy who was an above-average pitcher for a very long time, much like Don Sutton or Bert Blyleven or somebody of that nature. Do you see how misunderstood Johnson's greatness STILL is? Johnson has had, literally, two or three Sandy Koufax careers, and people still think, "well, yeah, he's awfully good." Sigh.
Spahn wound up with 20% more innings, which (A) doesn't mean much; both Johnson and Spahn led their leagues in innings pitched, in different eras. Were the guys in the 1870's the greatest, for pitching mass quantities of innings? and (B) doesn't make up the difference. What do you want, 5000 x 18 marginal ERA+ points, or 4000 x 38 marginal points?
Tell me you want 10 seasons of Raul Ibanez over 8 seasons of Ken Griffey Jr. Thought so.
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=== 256 TO GO, Dept. ===
Anyway. Who is this (hypothetical) kid in the minor leagues, that you think is going to give himself a better shot at 300 wins than Felix has right now?
Is somebody in the minors going to have 40 ML wins after age 22?
Is somebody in the minors going to cruise through his first three seasons at 200 innings pitched, without the slightest hint of elbow trouble, shoulder trouble, or loss of velocity?
Is somebody in the minors going to come up with better stuff, more potential, and a brighter future than Felix?
..............................
He still drives me crazy. Friday night's game was one more blizzard of fastballs that the Twins cheated on, pitch after pitch, simply "timing" Felix the way you time a hitting machine in the cage. And they STILL couldn't do anything with him!
7th inning, the fearsome lefty Justin Morneau leading off, Felix starts off with ... BOOM!! 97 mph, on the black, knee-high. Morneau rolls his eyes at how absurdly untouchable the pitch is.
Felix, impressed, tries to do the same thing twice more, and runs the count to 2-1. (Give Felix credit: he tries to paint now, as opposed to trying to throw it through bats.)
2-1, Felix throws an 89 offspeed pitch, and gets an ugly "garbage" swing from Morneau -- who is not reading the pitches at all. He is simply starting his swing in time to the fastball, exactly as you do when you -- as a shlub -- turn around 90 fastballs at the amusement park.
On 2-2, Felix goes 97, hits his target ... and Morneau, almost bored, flicks his bat out in a pepper swing and knocks the mosquito back over the 3b dugout.
On 2-2 again, Felix goes 95, high in the zone, and Morneau skies it to CF.
An offspeed pitch at any point would have embarrassed Morneau. But Felix just loves to huck the ball.
......................
Jack Nicklaus (the longest driver of his day) accused other golfers of not EMOTIONALLY ACCEPTING that golf is fundamentally a game of precision, not of power. Felix just loves to throw hard. He hasn't emotionally accepted that great pitching is an art of precision, not of power.
Tomorrow, or four years from now, Felix is going to realize that he could own baseball if he wanted to trick batters.
The kid doesn't have a clue how to pitch, and worse, has no interest in learning. But that doesn't mean he isn't great. :- ) Felix is a 300-game winner the way you draw it up on the chalkboard.
Cheers,
Dr D