Bunting Against the Shift
=== DRIVES ME CRAZY Dept. ===
Amazing that the defense over-shifts Branyan *even when Ichiro is on first.* This means that the defense is willing to concede not only a free single -- it is willing to concede even a free double. A bunt hit, with Ichiro on first, changes the situation from 1B, 0 out, to 1B + 2B, 0 out. That's the same as if Branyan led off with a double, and Ichiro walked behind him.
In the shift, the third baseman is playing SS, and cannot possibly turn a bunt into an out. Even if Mr. Friedrichsen from Up is running.
All in the world Branyan has to do, is square away and pepper the ball -- past the pitcher -- and he has a single. If he can do this even 70% of the time, he hits .700/.700/.700 AVG/OBP/SLG. He's not going to OPS 1400 swinging away.
But with a man on first, too? This is the equivalent of hitting .700/.700/1.400 -- a 2100 OPS.
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Instead, he chooses to swing away -- and with the shift, that is exactly the same thing as hitting against a 10-man defense! You're giving them an extra defender. With Branyan swinging away, to him the infield looks precisely as if it had a first baseman, second baseman, shortstop, third baseman, and rover on the dirt. How can you live with yourself for permitting that? :- )
(Granted, Branyan continues to smoke those whistling ground balls through the de facto 5-man infields.)
You KNOW the M's sabermetricians have pointed this out to Wok, if he didn't already know it. Branyan and Griffey can't possibly be unaware that they are looking at 1500-2000 OPS's by going "pepper" against the shift.
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And!
All that Griff and Branyan would have to do, is get three bunts down for hits, and THE DEFENSE WOULD STOP SHIFTING ANYWAY.
There is nothing in ML baseball that aggravates me more, than a hitter trading in a 2100 OPS for a 800 OPS, because he's hoping for a home run.
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Ted Williams, in My Turn At Bat, wrote quite a bit about how frustrating the shift was for him -- how annoyed he was at losing so many AVG points to it.
So why didn't he bunt? He apologized for not bunting against the shift. He said, "I've tried to do it. I just can't." In other words, he was such a horrific bunter that he believed that he couldn't get the bunt down anyway, so didn't want to embarrass themselves.
Teddy broke code and told us, the fans, why the big boppers don't mind playing against 10-man defenses: they're simply ashamed of their bunting attempts.
Managers say exactly the same thing, in code words: "It's not really fair to ask HIM to bunt."
I wish that Russell and Junior would open their minds a bit, spend some time in the cage practicing that easy little punch-bunt, and make the defenses stop shifting. It's a real shame that they don't.
Sob,
Dr D