Amok Time
The general consensus in Seattle is that you have to be careful re-signing Branyan because he's 33 with "old player's skills." The consensus is wrong.
;- )
Bill James pointed out, in the 1980's, that those with "old player's skills" TENDED TO age a little worse. He specifically applied this to Seattle's own Alvin Davis, who came up with lots of walks and power, but no speed.
Counterintuitively, those with "young players' skills" -- footspeed, and the fast-twitch reflexes to make contact on tons of pitches and so finish AB's on early counts -- age better. Dr. D has preached before that this is because an Ichiro or Rickey has batting reflexes to spare at age 37.
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What the good amigos have not realized, about "old players' skills," is that if this tendency exists IT IS A VERY GENTLE ONE.
Did it kill Jim Thome that he came up with old player's skills? Did it kill Edgar? Carlos Delgado? Fred McGriff?
Well, Fred McGriff was quite a hitter, you say. So is Russ Branyan, I say.
I'll bet you a dollar that you haven't read a single "study" demonstrating that guys with walks and homers clutch their chests and vaporlock at 33. All you have is a vague feeling that the leadoff guys are the ones who last, and you've wayyyyyyyy overplayed this "old players' skills" thing. :- ) Too much soup off of a rumor-oyster.
This is one James rule that has run amok like Spock during ponn farr. He never meant for us just to figure, stay away from all .600-slugging lefties in their 30's. :- )
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=== HURRY UP AND WAIT, Dept. ===
The "solution" to the "old player's skills" um, problem, is said to be this: wait and see how Russ Branyan does the rest of this season, and then decide.
Illogical "solution." You know and I know that Branyan is going to hit the whole season. You're not predicting he won't. You're predicting that he'll stop hitting some time after this season.
Then what good does it do you, to keep hemming and hawing, and letting his market value go up and up and up? Decide whether he's good now. He's not going to stop hitting in July, right?
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=== Have you SEEN this guy's launch?! Dept. ===
Who was it, Grizzle who pointed out the LH vs LH numbers? Branyan is hitting, slap me silly, .304/.394/.571 against LEFTY pitchers. That is not a guy whose reflexes have begun to slow down.
You want a rule that you CAN apply with some confidence, apply this one: after a star lefty hitter starts to flail against LHP's, he'll have a season or two of effectiveness vs RHP's. Branyan hasn't even started having trouble against lefties yet, and the reason is that his bat is the quickest on the team. Him and Ichiro.
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=== TTO AGING, Dept. ===
The relevant comps for Branyan would be all lefty TTO hitters of Branyan's general quality. B-ref.com gives Branyan's most-comparable player as being Cliff Johnson: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/johnscl01.shtml
Johnson is one whale of a comp for Branyan, too: a very strong man, good eye, good power, who never got a fulltime gig until he was past 30. Despite playing well in part-time action.
Johnson OPS+'ed 130 and 143 at ages 35 and 36, until he hit the very age at which Dr. D fell off the table physically: age 37. Precisely at 37, the age of which I think as not young anymore, Johnson fell off and stayed off.
Johnson's one comp. Jim Thome's another. Rob Deer's another. You need a bunch of them. Branyan reminds me a lot of Ron Kittle, who did crash early. It could happen.
Branyan reminds me even more of Matt Stairs, who at Branyan's age had 6 quality seasons left. :- )
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There's risk in all major-league contracts. But if you can get Branyan on a short-term deal, that's an awfully good bet, as baseball risks go. I wouldn't give him five years. But if he'll take two or three, it's just a no-brainer.
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955 - OPS, road, Russell Branyan
1134 - OPS, Safeco, Russell Branyan
9/28 - eye ratio, road
18/22 - eye ratio, home
It's precious few batters you can find who don't stall out in Safeco. The Mariners are in no position to pass on a good hitter.
BABVA,
Dr D